PT's Podcasts

Piych or Ditch 5/5/10

2010-05-05T09:14:00.000-07:00

Hey Everyone, Not sure if these blogs are posting on the site. I will be talking to Todd to see what the issue is.

Pitch or Ditch 5/5/10

Porcello vs Slowey
D. Hernandez vs Pettitte
Lewis vs Cahill
Pineiro vs Lackey
Bannister vs F.Garcia
Morrow vs Carmona
Garza vs Lee
Lilly vs Morton
Hanson vs Atilano
Penny vs Kendrick
Zito vs Robertson
R. Lopez vs Myers
Cook vs Richard
Niese vs Cueto
D. Davis vs Billingsley

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk."\

Pitch or Ditch 5/3/10

2010-05-03T07:20:00.000-07:00

Pitch or Ditch 5/3/10

Saunders vs Buchholz
Cecil vs Talbot
Guthrie vs Sabathia
Meche vs Peavy
Scherzer vs Baker
Hardenvs Braden
J. Garcia vs Hamels
Maine vs Leake
Mulvey vs Paulino
Jimenez vs Correia

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

This blog has moved

2010-05-01T04:51:00.001-07:00

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Pitch or Ditch 4/30/10

2010-04-30T09:12:00.000-07:00

Pitch or Ditch 4/30/10

Danks vs Pettitte
Lackey vs D. Hernandez
Blackburn vs Carmona
Cahill vs Morrow
Bannister vs Niemann
Pineiro vs Porcello
Lewis vs Lee
Stammen vs Nolasco
Niese vs Kendrick
Wandy vs Hanson
Cueto vs Penny
Bush vs Richard
Morton vs Billingsley
Lopez vs Wells
Cook vs Zito

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/29/10

2010-04-29T08:16:00.000-07:00

I am just going to quick post today. Being a Thursday not many games I i like most pitchers.

Pitch or Ditch 4/29/10

Burnett vs Matusz
Floyd vs Feldman ( Floyd was one pitcher I was targeting in the preseason but I need to see him bounce back 1st before I start him.)
Duchscherer vs Romero
Pavano vs Willis
Hochevar vs Garza (As if you don't know by now I am a fan of Hochevar)
Arroyo vs Oswalt
Kennedy vs Lilly
D. Davis vs LeBlanc
Jurrjens vs Wainwright
Burres vs Kershaw

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/27/10

2010-04-26T22:33:00.000-07:00

Hey What's up everyone? I am just sitting back watching Giants beat on Roy Halladay and drinking me some Carlos Sliva Kool-Aid. This just doesn't sound right. We where unable to see if Oliver Perez pitch a Gem due to a rain out but due to this teams in weekly leagues get Johan Santana for two starts. Also if anyone has any question about there teams feel free to leave there questions in the comment section of this post and I will try to get to them as fast as i can.

Pitch or Ditch 4/27/10

Hughes vs Millwood (Hughes is showing why he won the 5th starters job and has another good match up)
Liriano vs Verlander (Liriano 3-1 career vs DET and 64 k's in 51 innings. Verlander 5-6 career vs MIN and 70 k's in 90 innings i thought it would of been the other way with these guys numbers.)
Buchholz vs Marcum (Both guys been pitching good but not many wins to show for it.)
Sheets vs W. Davis (I am surprise in both of them so far but I would like to see more strikeouts in both.)
Buehrle vs C.J. Wilson ( I am not a fan of Buehrle, too safe for me. I like upside and Wilson has showed me he has it.)
Snell vs Greinke (Greinke needs to pitch complete games to get the wins and I feel and with Seattle bats not doing much he has a chance for his 1st win of the season.)
Talbot vs Saunders (Saunders 2-0 career vs CLE and should in prove that number.)
Kuroda vs J. Santana ( Not going to throw Johan numbers out there we all know they are sick but Johan is still not his self yet and not sure what we will get from him game to game. If Kuroda is the pitcher I really feel he is understanding the American game and can be LA's best pitcher.)
Garland vs A. Sanchez ( Stay away from both)
Harang vs Norris (Hanang needs to start winning and pitching or he will be in the Pen just like BIG Z is. Norris needs to try to go longer into games, if he can do that can be a real sleeper this year.)
L. Hernandez vs Gorzelanny ( As I been saying Livan is a inning eater and in point leagues get him in your line up. In my NL only money league I picked him up so I am all in with you guys.)
(PIT-?) vs Wolf ( The Brew Crew and The Wolf Pack who is 9-1 career vs Pittsburgh's just owns this guys.)
Lowe vs Carpenter ( Mr. Rhett Oldham can sit back and enjoy this win from Carpenter.)
E. Jackson vs Jimenez (Jimenez pitch count is something we need to keep an eye on and if you can get a great deal I would think about moving him in a trade.)
Moyer vs Wellemeyer ( Noting here play another day.)

Bonus Game: Haeger vs O. Perez ( I made it threw yesterday telling you to start Perez, Will my luck run out?)

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH "If you feel lucky"

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/26/10

2010-04-25T21:00:00.000-07:00

Hello everyone, Sorry about Morton yesterday he hurt me also. Richard pitched good but still can't get the win. I am take some Big time gambles today but I feel lucky.

Pitch or Ditch 4/26/10

Beckett vs Eveland (Not a fan Beckett but you have to. Eveland 2-0, 1.93 but 0-2, 17.36 vs BOS last year... So ?)
Bonderman vs Harrison ( I am Pass on this game.)
King Felix vs Davies ( The King will keep on Rock & Rolling)
Huff vs Weaver ( Weaver is ACE and a great match up so what would you think?)
Kuroda vs O. Perez ( I was thinking to make them my "If you feel lucky" picks. Perez is a BIG gamble worth to take.)
Latos vs J. Johnson ( I am pitching both but don't feel Latos will win.)
Lannan vs Silva ( I not drinking the Silva Kool-aid but I take a free sample.)
Duke vs Gallardo (Gallardo need to start getting some wins)
Hudson vs Lohse (If you have better options pass on both)
Haren vs Hammel (Haren needs to catch a break, he has 75k's in 71 career innings vs COL)
Halladay vs J. Sanchez (The best match up of the day but Halladay is unstoppable.)

RED- Pitch
BLUE- If you feel Lucky

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/25/10

2010-04-24T22:16:00.000-07:00

Sorry everyone about not posting the last few days had some computer issues and was use my cell phone as my computer and didn't know how to post the blog on there. I am going to change the set up a little. The players in RED will be my Pitch and non-red will be ditch. I also will set it up on with the pitching match ups that day and I will still give you my 'If you feel lucky' picks. those will be in .
Having a few days to regroup I ready to get on a hot streak.

Pitch or Ditch 4/25/10

J. Vargas vs Danks (Danks looks like the ace of White Sox staff.)
Morrow vs Price (I thought Price would have more up and downs, I am sold on Morrow let's see it again.)
Slowey vs Bannister ( Slowey's last game 9k's where did that come from?)
Porcello vs Lewis ( I say start both guys Porcello may get the win but Lewis may have better stats.)
Vazquez vs Kazmir ( I not ready yet to throw in Kazmir. Vazquez + NYY = You pitch him.)
D. Hernandez vs Wakefield ( This maybe Wakefield last start with Dice-K coming back. I take a chance.)
Masterson vs G. Gonzalez ( Both have upside and both have good match ups)
Morton vs Myers (Before Morton last game he was pitching OK just had some bad luck, I need to roll the dice with someone.)
Billingsley vs Olsen ( If he wasn't play WAS I would of sat Billingsley.)
Wells vs Bush ( Not much here move on.)
Penny vs Cain ( Cain is no Zito lol. Penny 2-0 he he for real?)
Kendrick vs Lopez
Volstad vs De La Rosa ( I am a fan of Volstad but I don't like the match up. Can De La Rose be the next Rockie to throw a No No?)
Richard vs Bailey ( Richard is due to get a Win and pitching well, I would like to see a few more k's)
Hanson vs Pelfrey ( Hanson is a Star can Pelfrey keep shining?)

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/20/10

2010-04-20T06:45:00.000-07:00

We Have a bunch of games today and I am leaning towards pitching most guys but I am not 100% sold on most of them. With a lot of games I was able to find a good group of gambles that can payoff.

Pitch & Ditch 4/20/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Billingsley
Haren
Vazquez ( Has a nice match up and should get his 1st win.)
Porcello ( I don't see how he that good of pitcher but some how does it each week.)
Price ( Up graded from a gamble to an ace in just a few weeks. WOW)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Kendrick ( I thought we would of got more from him. I will give him another shot.)
Hanson
De La Rosa ( He could be the next to throw a no hitter for COL.)
Zambrano ( We never know what we will get from him but if you drafted him i guess you have to play him.)
Pelfrey ( Win, Save last week can he do it again.)
Bailey ( This is another guy I thought we would get more from.)
Myers ( He has been looking good so far but he does play for HOU.)
Sanchez ( The K machine)
Lohse
Lewis ( I feel its a bad match up for him and everyone that picked him up last week may drop him this week.)
Masterson ( I don't think the 9 strikeout last week where for real.)
Slowey
Kazmir ( If I had him I would wait one more week.)
Danks
D. Hernandez

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Olsen
Bush
Wakefield ( he better watch out Dice-K will be back soon.)
Gonzalez ( has upside but Stay far away from him this week.)
Davies
Vargas

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Volstad ( His kid has a great match up and has been throwing good. Throws a lot of Balls but I watch his last game and there where a few borderline calls.)
Latos ( I Seem to been pumping this kid so I may have to up grade him to just pitch.)
Morton ( 9 to 1, K to walk. He has been pitching good just some bad luck.)
Eveland ( I haven't seen him pitch yet but the numbers don't lie.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/18/10

2010-04-18T08:58:00.000-07:00

Not much time today to go into detail but I was able to view the match up last night. Good Luck

Pitch & Ditch 4/18/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Wainwright
Hamels
Garza
Lester
B. Anderson

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Smith
Jurrjens
W. Rodriguez
Dempster
Zito
Kershaw
Arroyo
Santana
Romero
Pavano
Matusz
Harden
Scherzer
Floyd
Pettitte

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

D. Davis
Marquis
Robertson
Maine
Maholm
Kennedy
LeBlanc
Snell

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Hochevar
Carmona ( This one for you Dan Jay.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/17/10

2010-04-17T08:52:00.000-07:00

Good Morning guy's and girls. I am still trying to work out my bugs and trying to get on a hot streak. I could just add some big names to 'If you feel Lucky' but I don't want to go the easy way. I view all the match ups on CBS, ESPN and MLB.com, looking over the career stats vs each team and trying to give you my best guess on who to Pitch or Ditch. Over all most know who to pitch but i just want to fine that needle in the haystack for you. So hope today I can turn things around.

Pitch & Ditch 4/17/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Jimenez
Lincecum
Nolasco
Santana ( He just doesn't look like the Santana we all know. So what don't we know?)
Shields
Peavy ( Needs to prove he is a Top pitcher.)
Verlander ( I am ready for him to have a 10-12 K today.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Kawakami
Oswalt
Wolf
Haeger ( I believe we saw his best pitching day ready this year.)
Moyer
Garcia
Cueto
Correia ( I am can see 7-8 Ks today but doesn't win enough games.)
Saunders
Duchscherer
Buchholz
Feldman ( Seem to win but through match up.)
Burnett
Westbrook ( Not as bad as I thought he was.)
Rowland-Smith ( I saw a lot from him in spring but hasn't carried over to the regular season.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

McCutchen
Benson ( I wold put his wife out there before him.)
Tallet
Meche
Blackburn
Guthrie

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Gorzelanny ( Didn't get the win his outing, this time VS HOU so I am Rolling the dice.)
L. Hernandez ( He is hungry for innings if in a Points league give him a shot.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/16/10

2010-04-16T07:57:00.000-07:00

"Hey everyone, With no early games today I took longer to get out my picks so i could view the match ups and I was able to dig up some real gambles. I hope everyone was able to grab Bud Norris yesterday and didn't listen to me about Tim Wakefield.

Pitch & Ditch 4/16/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Gallardo ( Needs to step it up, Got paid last week and has to show he is an Ace.)
Halladay ( Is a good pitcher. LOL)
Carpenter ( Has to out pitch Oliver Perez what do you think?)
Weaver ( He is on his way to becoming an Ace.)
Greinke ( Will he get any help from his team.)
Sabathia
F.Hernandez

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Lowe
Wellemeyer ( Is a gamble but Had a nice spring, i am giving him another chance.)
Duke ( Is winning but not helping much anywhere else.)
Jackson
Marcum ( I am keeping an eye on him still not sure if he is for real.)
Beckett ( I dropped him from No Brainers.)
Baker
Millwood
Braden
CJ Wilson ( Another guy I am watching.)
Buehrle ( One the the safest bets out there.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Hammel
Paulino
Silva ( Don't think it will take much longer for the NL bats to Figure him out.)
Lannan
Sanchez
Padilla
Perez
Garland
W.Davis ( Rookie is a Rookie, I will be scouting out his game tonight.)
Talbot

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Bonderman ( Looked good he's 1st time out and pitching at SEA just a great match up.)
Leake ( Yes a Rookie but this kid is special.)"

Pitch & Ditch 4/15/10

2010-04-14T19:45:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Sorry didn't post the blog yesterday but I did do one but had issues downloading it.
My 'If you feel lucky' pitcher where G. Gonzalez and C.Volstad.

Pitch & Ditch 4/15/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

De La Rosa (Last year was his break out but he is breaking out again as a Ace.)
J. Johnson ( Slow start but feel he should bounce back this game.)
Haren

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Hudson
Zambrano ( You never know what you are going to get)
Happ ( 3-0 Career VS. WAS, I am betting on he will be 4-0 after this game.)
Harang ( I am not a fan and he doesn't win enough but If you draft him you need to put him in your line up.)
Wakefield ( 15-4 Career VS MIN they just have trouble vs Wakefield.)
Sheets
Hughes ( The 5th starter in New York always has a chance to win a game.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Suppan
Olsen
Lohse
Pelfrey
Liriano ( I am still need to see him do something before I pitch him.)
D. Hernandez
Kazmir ( Coming of the DL and VS the NYY I am Passing.)
Huff ( a nice 1st game but that maybe his best game all year.)
Garcia
Eveland

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Latos ( Just has too much talent and I am gambling most time he pitches.)
Kuroda ( I really think he is understanding the American game.)
Norris ( 2-0 VS STL last year through match up and coming off a bad game that he only last 2.2 innings but HOU has to win some games and Norris does give you the K's)

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/13/10

2010-04-12T21:01:00.000-07:00

Not many big name pitchers today and most options are clear cut. I did find one gamble that should pan out.
I am having trouble finding the probable pitchers the night before I am using CBS, MLB, ESPN and finding different match ups on each site. so you may see some of my picks not even pitch that today I guess because its to early in the season for the site to know the probables.

Pitch & Ditch 4/13/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Floyd ( TOR is hot so maybe a through match up but Floyd has upside.)
B. Anderson ( Yesterday I said SEA was better then OAK I think I was wrong)
Kershaw
Cain (Has the best match up of the night.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Niemann
Matusz (I was wrong his 1st start and I maybe wrong again)
Willis ( Good match and I will give he a chance)
Romero
E. Santana
Pettitte
Arroyo ( had a good 1st game and I don't think he can do it back to back)
Kennedy

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Bannister
Fister
Maine
G. Smith
Maholm ( I do have him in a deep NL league hope i didn't wait too long to cut him.)

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Robertson ( As I said last week we should be able to get a few good starts out of him before NL hitters figure him out.)

Jason Swist
PrimeTime21

Pitch & Ditch 4/12/10

2010-04-12T10:20:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Sorry for the late blog but the little one been keeping me busy.
Lets take a quick look at last week. My "if you feel Lucky" Category pitchers that maybe on your wavier wire. I want 4-6 with 59 strikeouts, Not over all great but from the wavier wire I will take it. Hopefully I can start the week off hot, I am able to view more stats and review the match ups in more details now that we have some games in the book.

Pitch & Ditch 4/12/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Jurrjens ( Great match up in SD.)
Lester (Todd's Man crush)
Hamels ( Looking to go 2-0)
Nolasco
Garza ( My Man Crush)
Wainwright
Peavy

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Harden ( Just keep pitching and stay off the DL)
Scherzer ( I can see a BIG K day)
Dempster
W. Rodriguez ( IF Houston Win's a game its because of him.)
Cueto
Zito ( In 2nd half form This could be the year SF paid for.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Carmona ( Still don't believe)
Pavano ( 1st starter at Target Field remember this for Trivia Pursuit)
Guthrie
Tallet
D. Davis
Marquis
Correia ( Can get some K's but I don't feel lucky with him)
Duchscherer ( I am still waiting on him)

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Hochevar ( My Sleeper this year but would like to see more K's from him)
Ohlendorf ( SF doesn't have the greatest line up and in a pitchers Park, Let roll with him)
Rowland-Smith ( SEA is a better team then OAK and RRS has skill)

Jason Swist
Prime Time 21

Pitch & Ditch 4/11/10

2010-04-10T23:36:00.000-07:00

Just a quick email tonight, I will review the week during the Sunday night game.

Pitch & Ditch 4/11/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Verlander
Burnett
Shields
J. Santana
Halladay
Lincecum

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Buehrle
Buchholz
Saunders
Braden
Oswalt
Jackson
Wolf
Feldman
Haeger
G. Smith
Garland

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Westbrook
Millwood
Blackburn
Meche
Snell
Leake

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

A. Sanchez
Marcum

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/10/10

2010-04-09T20:55:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Saturday starts will be the 1st time this season that we will see pitchers
there 2nd time around and we all hope our Big ace will turn things around. On Sunday night i will go over my 'If you feel lucky' picks and see how i did. Most of these pitchers are on the wavier wire or on your bench. Also on Sunday i will go over 2 start pitchers that you may want to pick up if you are in a weekly league.

Pitch & Ditch 4/10/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Sabathia (8.44 ERA and playing a Hot Tampa team looks like a slow start for CC this year.)
King Felix( Going to Texas will be through but I do feel SEA bats will wake up.)
Beckett (9.64 ERA and playing KC should be able to cut that ERA in half.)
Greinke ( Bad Match he will have to do it all to get the Win.)
Gallardo ( He just got paid $$$$$)
Carpenter
J. Johnson
Haren ( Always a fast starter but trade him after the All Star break.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Baker ( I thought he was overrated this preseason.)
Weaver ( Angels offense doesn't look go yet but Weaver is becoming an Ace.)
Harang( Will give you the K's but just can't win games.)
Sheets(3.60 ERA in his 1st start I want to see more but you have to start him.)
Moyer
Kawakami

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Garcia (He still pitches?)
Harrison
D. Hernandez
Eveland
Bonderman
Talbot
O. Perez
Paulino ( Was one of my deep deep sleepers K's will be there but nothing else.)
Padilla ( Was one of my 'if you feel lucky' his 1st start this time I am not rolling the dice.)
McCutchen
Hammel
Gorzelanny

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

W.Davis ( The Rays look like the real deal this year and the NYY bats are still sleeping. We all know what Lenny Melnick would say " A rookie is a rookie" But i am picking him up and taking a chance.)

Latos (Has the stuff to be a future ace but doesn't have the head. Yes he has a through match up and at Coors but he could put things together at anytime and have a great game.)

Wellemeyer ( Looked good in spring and won the 5th spot in the rotation plus does have the hottest hitter in baseball in Edgar Renteria)

Jason Swist
PrimeTime21

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

2010 Top 20 SP, version 2

2009-11-21T16:15:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that 2009 is officially behind us (and if you think I'm going to use this space to congratulate a team for buying a World Series championship, you're insane) and the Cy Young awards have been handed out (thankfully to the two who were clearly the most deserving--good job, voters, for not getting caught up in wins), what better time to update my ranking of starting pitchers for 2010. Not a whole lot of movement here, though I've had the chance to consider the final month of the season and digest some of the 2010 rankings released by other sites. As of today, here is my draft order for 2010.

1. Tim Lincecum (no change) - No doubt at all; the only real question is how early he goes in the first round. I am willing to take him seventh (after Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Braun, Utley, and Howard). The weed bust is a non-issue.

2. Zach Greinke (+1) - Probably can get him late in the second round. Don't forget that he had 17 fewer walks than Lincecum in 4 more IP.

3. Felix Hernandez (+3) - You know everything about his dominance and incredible fastball movement--but did you know he was 1.1 IP behind Verlander for the major league lead?

4. CC Sabathia (+6) - Had to let my Yankee hatred cool after he became an absolute guarantee in the last six weeks of the season. Other than a mulligan for the last day of the season in Tampa, his previous 10 starts: 8-0, 13 ER in 71 IP. Sick.

5. Johan Santana (-3) - I still think there could be quite a bit of value here, but clearly there won't be a reason to reach for him unless there are absolutely zero injury concerns.

6. Roy Halladay (+1) - Can't understate the value of pitching for a contract (and yet again almost leading the majors in IP while posting a 7.5+ K/9), but subject to change based on an offseason trade.

7. Cliff Lee (+4) - No hyperbole: Game 1 of the World Series was one of the most awe-inspiring pitching performances I've seen in the last 7 years. He is a true ace.

8. Chris Carpenter (-2) - 17 wins in 192 IP is pretty intense, but I am pretty gun-shy about an injury-prone SP with a sub-7 K/9.

9. Dan Haren (-5) - Gave up 5+ ER six times in August and September--still a K/BB freak though, and could thrive on an improved team.

10. Justin Verlander (-1) - Ended up leading the majors in IP--who saw that coming? And does that make anyone else just a bit nervous about next year?

11. Javier Vazquez
12. Adam Wainwright
13. Jon Lester
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jake Peavy
16. Ubaldo Jimenez
17. Josh Beckett
18. Tommy Hanson
19. Yovani Gallardo
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Jair Jurrjens, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver

I probably will be updating this again sometime in January. If you have any comments, I love to hear them: just leave them on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz 9/20/09: FIP vs. ERA, pt. 1

2009-09-20T20:53:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

First a note: The absolute most pure analysis of seasonal SP stats would require me to wait until the postseason--but I'm nothing if not anxious. So let's start dissecting 2009!

ERA is a standard fantasy statistic, and for good reason--it is theoretically the correct measurement of any pitcher's ability to limit runs that don't result from fielding errors. Of course, there are plenty of holes, such as the fact that inadequate (but not erroneous) fielding can play a big part in a pitcher's ERA suffering, as well as the fact that bad relievers can make a mess of a starter's ERA by welcoming home inherited runners.

As a result, some saber-heads have developed a metric called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which discards all statistics that a pitcher does not have much control over. I won't break down the entire detail of the equation--you know at this point whether you give any credence to this stat spaz silliness, so you're either on board or you're not--but think of it as a pure distillation of a pitcher's skill peripherals, and a discarding of those pesky luck stats. Ultimately FIP serves as an ERA predictor, before the effects of luck.

Many pitchers have demonstrated the accuracy of FIP. Cliff Lee's 3.00 ERA corresponds tidily with his 3.02 FIP. James Shields' disappointing 4.09 ERA was sadly predicted by his 4.06 FIP. Tim Lincecum's exquisite 2.30 ERA is predicted, and actually surpassed, by his 2.22 FIP (which is why he's so far and away the #1 pitcher next year).

Not all pitchers have such correlation, and that's where you can get some useful information about who to target--and who to avoid--next year. In this, the first of a two-part series, I will look at the unlucky pitchers: the ones with an ERA significantly higher than their FIP. But just in case you don't think there's any use in even looking at this, let's see what you would have known if you looked at pitchers with a high (ERA-FIP) in the last two years. For the record, I'm discarding starters who are fantasy-irrelevant (after all, the difference between a 5.80 FIP and a 4.70 ERA doesn't do much for anyone's team).

Thanks as always to the amazing fangraphs.com, my source for this data.

2007
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.01 ERA vs. 4.19 FIP
Greg Maddux - 4.14 ERA vs. 3.58 FIP
Joe Blanton - 3.95 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez - 4.58 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

Bonderman dropped his ERA nearly a point in 2008 before injury scrapped his season. Maddux was overcome with age as his strikeouts plummeted in 2008, and Blanton was beset by a scary (likely injury-driven) loss of control, though he proved to be quite a prize in 2009. The real story here was Rodriguez who was a lot better in every key statistic in a shortened 2008, and then got really good in 2009.

2008
Kevin Millwood - 5.07 ERA vs. 4.02 FIP
Javier Vazquez - 4.67 ERA vs. 3.74 FIP
Andy Pettitte - 4.54 ERA vs. 3.71 FIP
Josh Beckett - 4.03 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP
Justin Verlander - 4.84 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

See any of these names that wouldn't adequately described as a "value" pick if you were lucky enough to take them? Although Millwood has trailed off in late season, likely due to some fatigue, he was a much more solid and rosterable option for three months. Pettitte has been a nice surprise, probably as a waiver pickup, as his BABIP has normalized from last year's .339. I still hate Beckett personally but boy he was good for most of 2009. The real prizes here, though, are Verlander and Vazquez, who are both Top 10 pitchers for 2010 that were clearly undervalued at draft time. You would have wanted to take both of these guys at least two rounds higher than they were taken in your league--trust me.

Now let's see what we can learn from this year...

2009
Ricky Nolasco - 5.34 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Carl Pavano - 4.82 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP
Derek Lowe - 4.53 ERA vs. 3.78 FIP
Paul Maholm - 4.51 ERA vs. 3.81 FIP
Jason Hammel - 4.35 ERA vs. 3.66 FIP

Let me be clear about this: there is absolutely nothing that Nolasco has done in 2009 that makes me doubt for an instant that he is one of the 20 best starting pitchers in the majors. His K/9 has actually increased to a career-high 9.09 and his walk rate is still nice and low at 2.17. He is simply the unluckiest pitcher in years. If you doubt it, then good, join my league and take him off your draft board. If you believe in statistics, regression, and skill peripherals, you need to draft Nolasco next year. The value you're likely to get for him could be equivalent to the value you got from Chris Carpenter this year. If you don't believe in those things, you probably stopped reading a long time ago.

The other four could provide some value at the back of the draft next year. Pavano's high BABIP and very low BB/9 bodes well for a good fifth starter; he posted a career high K/BB in 2009 (and it's been a long career). Lowe is what he is, a consistent pitcher with a solid ground-ball IP-eating skillset. Maholm is actually very similar to Lowe; a solid GB pitcher with low HR rates and a really good curveball. Hammel is the real dark horse; now that his walks are under control he just keeps getting better and his curveball is devastating. He could prove to be a very solid part of the young Rockies rotation next year and should definitely not go undrafted (and should not be unowned in your league if you're still in contention).

Not all of these guys are guaranteed game-changers for 2010, but they are definitely pitchers that you don't want to underrate at draft time--the odds that they will be significantly better next year are very good, and with Nolasco, I guarantee it.

Stay tuned, at some point soon we'll take a look at the lucky ones that are deserving of multiple grains of salt...see you then!

~Evan the Censor

2010 Top 20 SP, version 1

2009-09-06T14:59:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clay Buchholz - 8/25/09

2009-08-26T22:11:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K

On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.

Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.

The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.

I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.

A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Zach Duke - 8/23/09

2009-08-23T15:50:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?

Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.

Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).

I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.

Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!

~Evan

The Starting Line: Jarrod Washburn - 8/21/09

2009-08-22T09:16:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009
ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K

I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect?

What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily.

Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that.

Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now?

"It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown

The Starting Line: Aaron Harang - 8/15/09

2009-08-15T17:03:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?

The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.

What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.

As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.

The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.

I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jonathan Sanchez - 8/11/09

2009-08-11T23:05:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jonathan Sanchez v LAD, 8/10/2009
L, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Looking at the Rotowire story log for Jonathan Sanchez shows two amusingly contrasting stories. First, there's the 6/17 story which describes how Bruce Bochy is about to send Sanchez to the bullpen (and rightfully so) for his total lack of effectiveness of his changeup. The other story is Sanchez throwing a fielder-aborted perfect game (thanks for nothing, Juan Uribe) on 7/10. 11 K's and 0 BB's? Who is this kid? And who is the real Jonathan Sanchez?

The real one, unfortunately, is the one characterized by Sanchez's ugly 5-10 record so far in 2009 and even uglier peripherals. The dominance element of great pitching does not elude Sanchez, who has posted a strong 9.5 K/9 this year and great plate control stats--he is in the top 15 among starters in Z-Swing% (pitches in the zone taken) and O-Contact% (pitches outside of the zone swung and missed). Clearly Sanchez can use his slider to kill batters in multiple ways.

But the control element has missed him entirely and it's not getting any better. Sanchez now has run his BB/9 all the way up to 5.03--the worst in the majors. He is throwing only 61% of his pitches for strikes (showing no improvement from last year) and still throwing a full 4.0 pitches per batter faced, which runs up pitch counts rapidly when you put that many batters on base. Despite the aberration of Sanchez's perfect game, he has now walked 13 batters in his last four starts and is also posting a sub-1 GB/FB ratio.

You can't ask for a line better than what Sanchez posted on 7/10--but you also can't expect him to repeat it anytime soon when batters are getting walked at such an alarming rate (I can't stress this enough--5.03 BB/9) and he can't keep the ball down. For now, Jonathan Sanchez is a case of all kinds of talent that is far from refined enough to trust on your fantasy team, unless you have a safe lead in WHIP and need some serious help in strikeouts. He's owned in 48% of Yahoo leagues so there is clearly demand--I would rather be the one trading him than trading for him as the deadline approaches.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week continued: BABIP

2009-08-01T17:37:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Sorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background:

2004
Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM
Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS

2005
Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK
Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC

2006
Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL

2007
Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA

2008
Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL
Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX

Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise.

So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009:

Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET
2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX
3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI
4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI
5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS

All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship.

Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA
2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN
3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL
4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS
5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE

Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far.

Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 4: HR/FB

2009-07-23T16:42:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After our initial jaunt through some of my favorite skill-based statistics, it's now time to turn the tables and look at statistics that identify some of the luckier (and unluckier) pitchers in baseball--which is the real information that you want when targeting buy and sell options as trade season hits the critical point over the next week.

The theory behind HR/FB is this--for the most part, with sensible adjustments for homer-friendly ballparks, you can reasonably expect that across the major leagues, fly balls are relatively interchangeable and will tend to leave the park at the same rate. In other words, if a pitcher is going to give up a fly ball, it's not because of any particular skill that more of his fly balls stay in the park than leave. The major league average is right about 10%--for any given pitcher, you can reasonably expect one out of every ten fly balls to land in the stands. Significantly higher or lower percentages indicate some potential regression--and that regression is that much more important for pitchers with higher FB%.

By the way, it's very important to note that this is a luck statistic only for pitchers. Clearly, it's a different story for batters, but pitchers are assumed to face an even distribution of batters over the course of a season.

First, some historical perspective on HR/FB:

2004
Best: 5.6% - Tim Hudson, OAK
Worst: 18.2% - Greg Maddux, CHC

2005
Best: 4.9% - Dontrelle Willis, FLA
Worst: 18.9% - Derek Lowe, LAD

2006
Best: 5.7% - John Lackey, LAA
Worst: 16.9% - Cory Lidle, NYY

2007
Best: 4.1% - Chris Young, SD
Worst: 17.7% - A.J. Burnett, TOR

2008
Best: 5.1% - Cliff Lee, CLE
Worst: 16.1% - Brandon Backe, HOU

Pretty evident that those with unsustainably low HR/FB percentages had them in years that we can look back on and say "Boy, they had a great year that year...what happened afterwards?" Lackey is a notable exception, and Lee looks almost as good...for now. But you'll notice by looking at any given pitcher's five-year history that if they play in a relatively neutral park, HR/FB is subject to wild fluctuations. In my world, we call that Luck!

Now, let's look at the top and bottom five so far this year.

Five Best 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 2.9% - Zack Greinke, KC
2. 3.3% - Joel Pineiro, STL
3. 4.7% - Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. 4.8% - Dallas Braden, OAK
5. 4.9% - Tim Wakefield, BOS

Seem like a few pitchers on that list are having unexpectedly good years? Here's part of the reason. Greinke's total absense of HR is downright scary and there's no possible way it can continue for him. He's not exactly a major GB pitcher, either; a 38% FB rate bears out to a guaranteed ERA increase on the horizon. Not saying he's a fraud--he's just not this good! Don't worry too much about Pineiro who has the best GB rate in the majors, but Wakefield is on the other end of the spectrum--his 45% FB rate is a massive danger sign and he has never posted a HR/FB lower than 9% before. When he comes back, brace yourself for the regression (that, seriously, you always knew was coming).

Five Worst 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 18.0% - Josh Geer, SD
2. 16.8% - Chris Volstad, FLA
3. 16.5% - Braden Looper, MIL
4. 15.9% - Ricky Romero, TOR
5. 15.4% - Trevor Cahill, OAK

Five relatively unappealing pitchers? Partially because their unlucky HR rate has showed you the worst they have to offer. Volstad and Cahill in particular have high enough FB rates, and enough talent, that you might be able to make the case that there is speculative skill underneath their mediocre numbers. Don't go running to pick these guys up--but don't let their 2009 difficulties define them in the future.

Tomorrow, the Censor's favorite acronym to pronounce as a single word! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 3: O-Swing & Miss%

2009-07-21T22:51:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After reviewing two very standard fantasy baseball stats, I have to admit that this week's stat is something that I have cobbled together from other stats, but I find fascinating and very useful in identifying the truly dominant pitchers.

The O-Swing% measures the percentage of times that a pitcher induces a batter to swing at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone. Conversely, the O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings outside the strike zone that make contact. What I've done is taken the inverse of O-Contact% and applied it to O-Swing% to invent my own stat--the O-Swing & Miss%! This is the measurement of what percent of an SP's pitches outside of the strike zone induce a swing and miss. This, to me, may be the best measurement of strikeout effectiveness (better than K/9 even) because a pitcher is only getting these swings and misses if their stuff and their location are so good that batters are either a) completely fooled, or b) afraid to take the pitch. I can't give historical data on this, but to compensate I'll give you the top and the bottom ten so far this year.

Ten Best 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 14.9% - Chad Billingsley
2. 14.7% - Felix Hernandez
3. 14.5% - Javier Vazquez
4. 14.4% - Dan Haren
5. 14.1% - Tim Lincecum
6. 13.9% - Ryan Dempster
7. 13.6% - Jorge de la Rosa
8. 13.1% - Jon Lester
9. 13.0% - Francisco Liriano
8. 12.8% - Roy Halladay

Now there's a list of ten fantasy pitches I want to own--SPs that I know have the skill-set to consistently dominate their competition. If you're still in a league that de la Rosa is not owned in, make sure you remedy that immediately, and if you need any more proof that Lester's strikeout ability is for real, here it is.

Ten Worst 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 4.4% - Mike Pelfrey
2. 4.5% - Brad Penny
3. 4.5% - Livan Hernandez
4. 4.9% - J.A. Happ
5. 5.2% - Vicente Padilla
6. 5.6% - John Lannan
7. 5.7% - Randy Wolf
8. 5.7% - Tim Wakefield
9. 5.9% - Jeremy Guthrie
10. 6.1% - Derek Lowe

Almost zero fantasy interest on that list, other than Lowe potentially, and the reason is clear. When you can't get guys to swing and miss at your pitches out of the strike zone, you're either going to walk everybody or have to send lots of pitches up the middle and pitch to contact. Ground-ball pitchers on this list (like Lowe) can deal with this; guys like Happ and Wolf, though, who still put up decent K numbers are major red flags because those strikeouts are all coming from pitches up the middle. These softies don't belong on my roster.

Hopefully you've found these last three days to be worthwhile. The Censor's taking a break tomorrow and then we'll take a look at the season so far for some of the major "luck stats": BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. Hooray for stats! Send me an email if you have any questions or feel free to leave a comment below.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB

2009-07-20T21:29:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:

2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM

Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.

Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.

Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET

These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.

Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 1: K/BB

2009-07-19T16:32:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

The Censor is taking a break from analysis of individual pitchers for a few days (though I'm always happy to take requests for specific pitcher analysis via e-mail) to become a complete, unabashed stat whore. At this point of the season, which we'll refer to roughly as the "midway" point, it's time to see who the top performers, the surprises, and the obvious overachievers are. In doing so, I'm going to look at three of my favorite skill stats, and three of my favorite "luck stats", looking at the top and the bottom five in each category, and we'll see what type of information we can glean.

Today we start with my #1 favorite statistic for analyzing the quality of starting pitching: K/BB, otherwise known as strikeout to walk rate. I want my pitchers to do two things really well: dominate hitters and rack up strikeouts, and control the strike zone, thus keeping their WHIP (and by extension their ERA) down. K/BB measures the ability of a pitcher to dominate the strike zone while still keeping patient hitters off the bases. As some background, I will highlight the best and the worst of the stats I review over the five previous seasons (limited to ERA-qualifying starters). Here is the recent history of K/BB:

2004
Best: 8.25 - Ben Sheets, MIL
Worst: 0.85 - Kirk Reuter, SF
2005
Best: 7.89 - Carlos Silva, MIN
Worst: 1.19 - Horacio Ramirez, ATL
2006
Best: 6.54 - Curt Schilling, BOS
Worst: 1.01 - Steve Trachsel, NYM
2007
Best: 5.65 - CC Sabathia, CLE
Worst: 1.14 - Livan Hernandez, ARI
2008
Best: 5.28 - Roy Halladay, TOR
Worst: 1.06 - Daniel Cabrera, BAL

Interesting to see the top end of the K/BB range declining sharply every year for quite a few years now. That pattern may be changing in 2009. Here are the best and worst K/BB in 2009:

Best 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 7.61 - Dan Haren, ARI
2. 6.24 - Roy Halladay, TOR
3. 5.91 - Javier Vazquez, ATL
4. 5.67 - Zack Greinke, KC
5. 4.74 - Cole Hamels, PHI

These are five elite pitchers, and their leadership in this statistic only underscores their fantasy ace status. Haren has a scary-low BABIP (a story for another day) but even if his luck doesn't quite hold up, clearly he has all kinds of skills to back up a large part of his performance. The real story is Vazquez who is posting a career-high K/9 and career-low BB/9--an absolutely phenomenal feat considering he is now in his 12th year in the majors. Every statistical indicator shows he is pitching better than his 2.95 ERA and his absence from the All-Star team was a travesty. If someone thinks they're smart to sell him high, don't be afraid to pay for him, he's an ace. If you have an ignorant owner who will unload Hamels and his 4.72 ERA, he's only going to get better.

Worst 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 1.04 - Trevor Cahill, OAK
2. 1.17 - Jeff Suppan, MIL
3. 1.19 - Micah Owings, CIN
4. 1.22 - Jon Garland, ARI
5. 1.30 - John Lannan, WAS

No surprise here--if you need more evidence that this is a fantasy skill stat, take a look at five guys who belong on nobody's fantasy team. No surprises here. Obviously it's time to give up on Owings (and you're a year late) but the only real disappointment here to me is Cahill--a rookie, to be fair, and one who never projected to be a high-K guy, but his total and complete lack of plate dominance is a bit troubling. He seems to almost pitch scared at times, afraid to challenge hitters and trying way too hard to finesse his way out of every situation. There is plenty of talent there, and his name isn't one to forget just yet. The rest of these guys should have been forgotten in fantasy-land long ago.

Back tomorrow with more adventures in the land of the stat spaz!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ted Lilly - 7/11/09

2009-07-11T23:35:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ted Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning.

But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston.

Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands.

A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jason Marquis - 7/6/2009

2009-07-07T23:41:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through.

First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants.

And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in.

Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge.

Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008.

~Evan the Censor~

The Starting Line: Jorge de la Rosa - 7/3/09

2009-07-04T15:02:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jorge de la Rosa v ARI, 7/3/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K

There may not be a pitcher with a more agonizingly tantalizing blend of talent and unpredictability (this side of Oliver Perez, at least) than Jorge de la Rosa. When he is dominant, he looks amazing with his fireball fastball and devastating changeup--in fact, only Javier Vazquez has a higher swing-and-miss percentage among all ERA qualifiers this year; a full 26.4% of batter swings whiff right past de la Rosa's pitch.

But when he's bad, he is so bad as to incite fantasy writers to vow that he is forever unusable in mixed leagues and similar raging diatribes. I wrote a few of those myself after de la Rosa's 2.1 IP, 7 ER tee-ball fest against the Rays in June, the only game in an 18-game stretch that the Rockies lost. Now, however, with Friday's start and the two quality wins he picked up in his previous starts, he's back to looking like a real fantasy pitcher again, and his numbers demand that you give him consideration.

I can guarantee that he's the best source of strikeouts you'll find on your league's wire--his 9.37 K/9 is seventh in the majors--and for that reason alone, he may be worth a spec pickup. But there are plenty of statistical reasons to think that you still have an opportunity to pick up a highly-skilled player for cheap: his BABIP of .329 has plenty of room to regress to the downside, which will bring down his 1.44 WHIP considerably (though walks will likely continue to be a problem) and his strand rate of 65.6% is the fourth lowest among ERA qualifiers. There are some luck elements to that stat as well, and if that regresses, we'll see a significant decrease in de la Rosa's ERA--which, at 5.14 currently, probably looks too ugly to pick up.

But looking at the underlying stats, you can know better than that. With an FIP (predictive ERA) of 3.81, his skill set is too good and his ceiling of dominance too high to let him languish on any waiver wire. He can be benched in questionable matchups (don't let Coors scare you though, home runs are not his hangup) but can always be counted on to stack up strikeouts. If only the control could be improved, and some of the luck factors could regress, we'd be looking at de la Rosa as much more of the fantasy stalwart that he teases sometimes, rather than the waiver wire sniper start that all your leaguemates currently are treating him as.

Remember--if you'd like the Censor to cover any specific starting pitcher, I'm happy to do so. Just fire an e-mail off to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy holidays!

~Evan the Censor~

The Starting Line: Brian Bannister - 6/20/09

2009-06-21T14:38:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Brian Bannister v STL, 6/20/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K

When Bannister has had positive stretches during his short career (August 2007, April 2008), most analysts have written it off as "Ride it while you can, but there's no way Bannister is this good." When he's been bad--as he was during pretty much the rest of his miserable 2008 after a nice April--it's more a matter of "Well, that's Brian Bannister, cut and forget." But don't look now--other than an ugly week in late May, Bannister is starting to look like a competent major league pitcher.

He's never been a strikeout specialist--this year's 5.53 K/9 rate is actually close to a career high. His BB/9 rate of 2.89 is in lockstep with his career average too. Bannister's problem in 2008--and 16 losses and a 5.76 ERA is definitely a problem--was an unacceptable 0.92 GB/FB rate, and a bit of bad luck with HR/FB, all adding up to an ugly 1.43 HR/9 and a lot of big innings that knocked Bannister out of games early to the tune of only 5.7 IP/start (gotta love the Royals sticking with him for 32 starts though).

Bannister's key improvement this year--a believable one that is not necessarily a "luck" trend--is a significantly increased GB/FB rate, currently at a career high of 1.40. That, along with a more normalized HR/FB, means a lot fewer HR and longer games for Bannister. His BABIP of .298 is at a very healthy level where there's not an implicit fear of hit regression.

A healthy ground ball rate is very important for a low-strikeout pitcher who relies on an 89 mph fastball as Bannister does, and if he can keep this type of GB strength up, he will be able to limit damage much more successfully than he has in the past. Watch that GB/FB closely and if it stays well above 1.0, Bannister is a starter you can take a look at against mediocre offenses--but remember he will never be a fireballing Greinke-type, so avoid overreliance, especially against offenses that could really pound him.

Don't forget that you can e-mail me anytime at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com if there's a specific pitcher of SP stat that you'd like me to write about. Be careful, though--two weeks ago I got a request for Erik Bedard and he hasn't made a start since. The curse of the Censor!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Chris Carpenter - 6/14/09

2009-06-14T22:26:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Chris Carpenter @ CLE, 6/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Anyone who got to watch Cliff Lee pitch today got to see an absolute treat, and hopefully everyone will now shut up about Lee being the "Estaban Loaiza of 2008" as he has fully proven me right--even I didn't think he'd get his ERA back down to 2.88 this soon. But that's not what I want to talk about, and to be honest I don't even want to talk about Carpenter all that much either.

Carpenter is a great pitcher with incredible fastball location and a mean slider and curveball. He's been fantastic this year; coming into Sunday's game his ERA was a remarkable 1.23 and everyone proclaimed that the 2005 Cy Young winner was back in full form. And while I think he's a great pitcher, there was one statistic in his 2009 portfolio that I could not get past: HR/FB. In 2009, Chris Carpenter had only given up one home run in seven starts--an unbelievable HR/FB rate of 2.9%. That is most definitely not sustainable.

HR/FB is not a perfectly regressing stat like BABIP, especially for pitchers in parks that are very large or very small. But in general, you expect to see 7-10% of fly balls go for home runs. When you have a pitcher who is giving up fly balls, but none of them are leaving the yard, you know that there is trouble coming. Wandy Rodriguez certainly proved to be the poster child for this, giving up four homers in one start after only giving up in his first 11. So who are some other pitchers that you should be worried about their unsustainably low HR/FB?

Let's start with Jair Jurrjens. His GB/FB rate is under one, and he's been able to stay out of trouble with a tasty 4.1% HR/FB. That won't last and will hurt more with his lack of groundballs. Chad Billingsley is another candidate--his 7.5% career HR/FB rate has stayed at 2.6% so far this year which has sure helped his 2.73 ERA, but he's due to give up about ten home runs over the next six weeks. And blasphemy--yes, Zack Greinke is going to have some trouble later this year as well. His career HR/FB rate of 9.1% and career GB/FB rate of 0.95 should translate to about 2o HR in a season--and Greinke sits at 2 HR allowed in 2009.

This is no reason to sell high or give up on any of these three pitchers, or Carpenter for that matter. But understand that their miniscule ERAs are not fully reflective of the pitcher they are, and that quite a few of their pitches are overdue to leave the yard. I want Carpenter on my team, without question, but I also know that there's a full point or more of ERA coming home to roost, and the 2 HR allowed on Sunday are the beginning of that normalcy.

Thanks for reading,

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Rick Porcello - 6/12/09

2009-06-13T21:51:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Rick Porcello @ PIT, 6/12/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K

You could have known a lot earlier that Porcello was going to be great--if you read my preseason column identifying the top ten minor league pitchers who were going to have a major league impact (not that I want to prop myself up, of course). I had this to say about Porcello, who was #7 on my list: "His upside projects to the Fausto Carmona of 2007." I said that not really expecting that his upside was going to show up in 2009.

Porcello, who won't even turn 21 until after Christmas this year, has a whopping 125 IP of minor league experience--all in 2008 and all in A. With the shakiness at the back of the Tigers rotation, he was kept on the major roster to start the year and pitched exactly like a 20-year-old pitcher to start the season: 9 ER, 5 HR, and 2 losses in his first three starts (all on the road). As he has found his confidence, though, we've seen what makes Porcello great.

It's not the strikeouts, let's make that clear (thus the Carmona reference). Porcello has not struck out more than 5 batters in a game this year and his 5.03 K/9 this year is probably right about what you can expect. He gets batters out in other ways, though: as a stellar control and ground ball pitcher. His pitch efficiency of 3.7 pitches per batter faced is fantastic, as evidenced by the fact that he has yet to top 100 pitches in his 12 starts. Part of that is caution, but the kid gloves obviously aren't that strong if Porcello has pitched deep enough to rack up 7 wins.

But the ground ball numbers, for a kid this young, are really incredible. Porcello's GB rate of 56.0% is sixth in the majors among ERA qualifiers, and he's one of only seven pitchers with a GB/FB rate above 2.0. Contrast this to a guy like Max Scherzer and you know what you're getting: fewer strikeouts, to be sure, but deeper games, lower pitch counts, more wins, and consistency as long as his great sinking fastball is in the right spot.

If you want me to make the craziest statement I could imagine, it's this: after all the sports shows talked about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner, this is the exact type of kid that may be the next to get there. He pitches intelligently, consistently, and does not play with fire--since those first three starts, only 5 HR given up in 50 IP. He's pitching well ahead of his incredibly young age and may win 17 games before he's old enough to legally drink. If Porcello has somehow not been picked up in your league, he should be 100% owned because he's going to be a three-category star with a great career in front of him.

As a reminder--if there are any specific pitchers you'd like covered in this column, please email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com or leave a blog comment. Peace out!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Kevin Slowey - 6/7/09

2009-06-07T19:54:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Kevin Slowey @ SEA, 6/7/2009
L, 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K

I actually watched the Mariners-Twins game on Sunday afternoon intending to write a blog about Erik Bedard, who has proven himself to be every bit the exceptional value pick that I thought he would be and still has one of the illest curveballs in baseball. But I think the more important SP-related take from this game is a bit of regret on my part--I thought this may be the year that Slowey established himself as a true fantasy ace, but the leaks that were apparent on Sunday make me think I might have been a year too early.

Kevin Slowey is a control pitcher--in fact, he is the epitome of control pitchers. The ML-leading 0.93 BB/9 Slowey posted prior to Sunday's start, if maintained, would be the first sub-1.00 BB/9 since Carlos Silva in 2005. In fact, no one other than Greg Maddux has posted a BB/9 lower than 1.24 since 2005--as a reference, Cliff Lee led the majors last year with a 1.37 BB/9. Slowey isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher--his 6.7 career K/9 is good, not great--and he is definitely not a groundball pitcher; his 0.74 GB/FB is actually seventh-lowest in the majors. What he's able to do is scatter base hits and because he makes almost no location mistakes, he can limit damage and keep a high strand rate--very reminiscent of Tom Glavine in his prime.

The problem today was that Slowey ran into CB Bucknor, a home plate umpire with a strike zone the size of a index card. Bucknor was completely fair, consistently denying Erik Bedard the outside corner, but Bedard can always go back to his dynamite curveball. Slowey doesn't have the same strikeout pitch that can overcome a tight strike zone, and once his pitch counts started running up you could see some anxiety creep in. For Slowey to actually walk two batters in a game is incredible (that brings his total to 9 for the entire season) but the 10 hits is a clear consequence of not being able to use the outside part of the strike zone the way he'd like, and it happened against a really awful Seattle offense that has been floundering mightily.

I think that by the end of the year, Slowey will have 12 or 13 wins, and a WHIP around 1.20 with an ERA close to the 3.99 he put up last year--but just like 2008, he will probably average at least 1.0 H/IP, and until he can ramp up his underused offspeed pitches to really cut batters off the way Bedard does with his curveball, he's going to run into disasters like this now and then. A control pitcher like Slowey comes around rarely, but the translation to real ace is a level that Slowey is clearly not quite ready for.

Thanks for reading--all comments, questions, vulgar flames, and requests for discussion of specific pitchers to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great week!

~Evan the Censor

Three Sell-High Candidates

2009-06-06T08:34:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that the season is roughly one-third in the books, we have a healthy enough sample size to determine who is for real, and who is putting up numbers that can only be described as a kind mirage. To that end, here are three pitchers for whom luck has been on their side, and who can be reasonably expected to see a downturn in the very near future.

Kevin Millwood - There's no possible way a sub-3.00 ERA can continue for Millwood, and in fact he's a prime candidate to put up a +4 the rest of the season. Millwood is missing disaster with all kinds of good fortune, but his .262 BABIP is due for an increase and his relatively high walk numbers mean that the WHIP damage could be substantial. Millwood is putting up a career-low K/9 of 5.08--pretty incredible when you consider he's got thirteen years of career behind him--and giving up HR at an ugly 1.27 HR/9 rate, far above his career high. When more hits start falling against him, as they will, his ERA is due for a sharp rise. Sell high.

Josh Outman - Outman has been a great story through his first nine starts for the uber-young Athletics rotation, outpitching all the other highly touted prospects surrounding him. In his first nine starts, he's put up a 3.02 ERA and a strong 7.0 K/9. However, he's also been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck: only Scott Feldman has a lower BABIP than Outman's incredible .242. He has been putting runners on the bases at a good clip thanks to his ugly 3.7 BB/9 and 59% of pitches thrown for strikes, but has been able to strand 78% of those runners by getting balls to drop in the right place. He can't control that forever, and those walks will come home to roost with a healthy ERA increase sooner than later.

Matt Cain - I know everyone thinks this kid is the next fantasy ace (and has thought that for three years now)--and in fact, if someone in your league thinks that, get them to overpay for him right now. Cain's walks have always been too high, as they are again (3.7 BB/9) but for some reason his strikeout rate has slowed dramatically, from a career 7.7 K/9 all the way down to 6.7 K/9 this season. His flyball rate still exceeds his groundball rate by quite a bit, and though he's been able to keep his HR/FB very low in the past, if that ratio climbs it's bad news. The bottom line is that there is no way any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP can maintain an ERA under 3.00 for an entire season--Cain will not strand 88% of the runners he puts on base, as he has this year so far. But every league has at least one owner with a Cain mancrush; find that guy and make him pay for these inflated stats.

Coming soon--the Censor takes a look at three guys for whom the best part of 2009 is certainly yet to come. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clayton Richard - 5/29/09

2009-05-30T16:52:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Richard @ KC, 5/29/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K

I have to be honest with you--in the hunt for young, up-and-coming arms at the beginning of the year, I did not have Clayton Richard on my radar. In fact, I basically implied that the 25-year-old was holding a roster spot for the vastly superior young arm Aaron Poreda. Richard spent a relatively nondescript month as a reliever until Jose Contreras pitched his way into oblivion, and now Richard has his chance to shine as the fifth starter--and so far, he has sure taken that chance, and established himself as someone who needs to be on your radar.

After a transition start at Cleveland that can safely be ignored, Richard now has three good starts under his belt, with great numbers: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and an above-average 2.57 K/BB. He looks composed and ready, and you can likely chalk that up to the three full seasons of minor league ball that he pitched--not many young arms have the luxury of chalking up 450 total IP before beginning their first full major league season. The patience the White Sox have had has paid off, apparently.

If Richard is just now coming onto your radar, join the club; he was completely wasted in a relief role. He doesn't exactly have the dynamite fastball or putaway slider that a spot reliever really needs, and in a relief role he didn't have much of a chance to use his offspeed pitches effect--now we have a chance to see how good his changeup really is.

Richard is definitely a major league starter. Unfortunately, his effectiveness is stopping the world from seeing what Poreda is capable of, but Bartolo Colon is one cheeseburger away from the DL at any given moment. For now, Richard is someone who should at least be on your radar, and is probably already a good option for a sniper start. Expect the K/9 rate to settle somewhere around his career average of 6.06, but his walk rate should stay low and he will be able to limit the home run effectively. Despite the White Sox's near-attempt to waste him in relief, Clayton Richard has arrived and given time, will almost certainly be a boost to someone's fantasy team later in 2009.

Remember--if there's a pitcher you'd like covered in the Starting Line, feel free to leave a blog comment or send me an email.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clayton Kershaw - 5/28/09

2009-05-29T22:17:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Kershaw @ COL, 5/27/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K

I have made the argument many times that of all the hot young pitchers in the majors right now, I'm not sure there's anyone with the upside of Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, only two months removed from legal drinking age. That's not easy to see, though, if you focus on aggregate season numbers. Kershaw's boasting a pretty pedestrian 4.34 ERA, a 3-3 record in 10 starts, and a mediocre 1.29 WHIP. His K/9 is a strong 8.84, but it comes with an ugly 5.14 BB/9. His efficiency is terrible--the Kazmir-esque 4.3 pitches per batter faced is the main reason he hasn't seen the eighth inning of a game yet. Doesn't sound like a pitcher you'd want much to do with this year, right?

Kershaw is the poster child for why I believe in short-term moving averages for my analysis. The kid posted an incredible start against the Giants, striking out 13 in seven innings with only one walk--then followed that up with two road bombs at Colorado and Houston, posting a massive 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. And everyone who was so excited about his potential was ready to run for the hills.

Kershaw completed his May on Wednesday with a return to the scene of the last crime and looked comparatively better--not great, but a backdoor quality start. It capped off a run of six May starts, though, that paint quite a different picture than the aggregate season numbers. In May, Kershaw posted a 2.57 ERA, with a particularly solid 1.06 home ERA. This is the sign of a pitcher that is settling down and finding some consistency.

I love the mix of pitches that Kershaw throws--his wicked heat is complemented by a deadly curveball, and a changeup that takes a full 11 mph off his fastball (which I'd like to see him throw more). Despite his control issues--as always, a common problem with rookie pitchers--Kershaw keeps the ball in the ballpark and has not truly blown up for more than a month. His hit rate (BABIP) is a bit low and due for some upward regression, but the WHIP damage there will be offset if he can just gain some control, and very few young pitches don't post significant control improvement after they cross 150-200 IP in the majors.

Despite how unsexy Kershaw may be to many after his back-to-back blowups and lack of a real dominant performance since then, the consistency is all you need to see from a pitcher with his talent at this point in his career. Keeper league owners should know that this is the Johan Santana of the next generation, the SP you'll want to have on your roster for the entire 2010's. Even non-keeper owners should look out for owners who have lost their interest in Kershaw and see if you can snatch him up in a trade--the second half of the season could pay major dividends.

I know everyone's in love with Cueto, Scherzer, and various others--but when Clayton Kershaw is being taken in the first round of drafts in 2014, just remember who tipped you off first.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Johnny Cueto - 5/24/09

2009-05-25T09:09:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Over the next four days, the Censor's going to take a look at some of the young guns who had everyone abuzz with their high-strikeout, high-ceiling potential at draft time and see how that potential has translated to success so far in 2009.

Johnny Cueto v CLE, 5/24/2009
ND, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K

Cueto's major league debut will be forever burned in the minds of fantasy gurus--for a rookie pitcher to strike out 10 and walk zero in their first start is something incredible. Then to follow that up with another 8 K, 0 BB performance solidified Cueto as a fantasy legend. Until, of course, reality set in and Cueto's 2008 season line settled at 9-14, 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, along with a scary 1.50 HR/9, fifth-worst in the majors. Not exactly ideal fantasy numbers, but the 8.17 K/9 left some hope and Cueto was taken as a late-round flier in all mixed leagues--and is paying off huge dividends so far in 2009.

Through nine starts, Cueto is now 4-2, with a scintillating 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That includes five starts of at least 7.0 IP, and two or fewer ER. He is certainly showing improvement, but a look at his peripherals indicates there is still some room for growth. Cueto's pitch counts are usually topping 100 earlier in the game than the Reds and their shaky bullpen would prefer, and his 3.94 pitches per batter faced (unchanged from 2008) is not an ideal level. Similarly, Cueto is still only throwing 63% of pitches for strikes, a level at the low range of acceptable. He is certainly pitching to contact more, as evidenced by a K/9 rate that has dropped to 6.97 and a BB/9 rate that has also dropped from 3.52 to a solid 2.37.

The biggest improvement is the home run rate--cut in half to 0.74 HR/9, yet you have to wonder if that's sustainable since Cueto's HR/FB is only 7%, which is well below the major league average. Similarly, it's tough to imagine his opponent BA of .216 being even close to sustainable when only 25% of batted balls have gone for hits. Regression is due.

A pitcher like Johnny Cueto, who throws fastball or slider for 95% of pitches, is going to be challenged to have long-term success as a starter. He's looked great so far this year, but has also had his share of luck, and to anyone who hurriedly snatched him up after last year's hot start you remember what regression feels like. If you've enjoyed Cueto's dynamite contribution to your 2009 stat line, no need to make a panic deal, but it's probably time to sell high and move on to something else because I think we've seen the best part of his season.

Please remember to email me if you would like any specific starter, or any other element of starting pitcher, covered in this blog. Happy Memorial Day!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ricky Nolasco - 5/13/09

2009-05-15T00:30:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ricky Nolasco @ MIL, 5/13/09
L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

I was absolutely one of the biggest fans of Ricky Nolasco going into the season--tough not to be with the numbers he put up and the composure with which he established himself as the Marlins ace last season. Now, Nolasco has extended his disastrous 2009 season through eight starts, in which he has never posted a game ERA less than 4.50 and has not pitched more than 6.0 IP once. Like many Nolasco owners, I'm sure, I got a nice offer trying to buy very low on Nolasco. At least it's something for a SP with a 7+ ERA, right? I'm not selling, and here's why I don't think you should either.

Nolasco was great for two reasons last season: his strikeout ability (7.9 K/9) combined with his pinpoint control (an incredible 1.78 BB/9)--good for seventh in the majors with a 4.43 K/BB, the Censor's favorite stat, and the third-lowest WHIP in the majors. Are the skills all gone? Not a chance: Nolasco is still striking out 7.6 batters per 9, and though walks have increased to 2.59 BB/9, that is still a quality starter number and Nolasco still throws two-thirds of pitches for strikes. No real change in ground ball rate or other unnerving peripherals.

The difference? Nolasco is on the other end of the Joe Saunders luck spectrum. Nolasco's BABIP is a ridiculous .387--which means that fully a fourth of the hits that batters are getting off him are due for regression. Even though I don't put much stock into strand rate, Nolasco's strand rate of 52.7% is positively eye-popping--the worst in the majors, and by a lot; second-worst is Daniel Cabrera at 56.6%. Hits are falling badly for Nolasco, and they're falling with men on base. His FIP, which as I've said is a useful ERA predictor, is 4.34--lower than any of his eight individual game ERAs. It sounds crazy after his start Wednesday, but seriously, this is one of the unluckiest stretches

All of this indicates that the best is yet to come for Nolasco--not only that, but it indicates he could still be the pitcher he was last year for a significant length of time. If that's the case, then you want him on your team, and you're highly advised to do what my fellow owner did and make a lowball trade offer while the bad taste is still present. I want Nolasco on my team now as much as I did in March.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Joe Saunders - 5/9/09

2009-05-10T10:57:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Joe Saunders v KC, 5/9/2009
W, CGSHO, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Saturday's duel between Joe Saunders and phenom Zack Greinke was everything you could have hoped for, including yet another effortless CG by Greinke--albeit in a losing effort, as Saunders was equally dominant across the hill. Saunders threw 101 pitches in nine innings, an extraordinary 3.2 pitches per batter faced, and threw 67% of pitches for strikes while getting 13 GB vs 8 FB. It was a fantastic fantasy start for a pitcher who was everyone's golden boy going into the year, and who has done a fine job anchoring a staff devastated by injuries and Nick Adenhart's passing.

So let me take this opportunity to say that despite a great season and two particularly great starts in the last week--I still do not trust Joe Saunders. And if you've got an owner who is ready to pay for his 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP like he's an ace, start talking trade now before the bottom falls out.

Saunders didn't have much room left on the downside of his 4.68 K/9 rate, one of the ten worst in the majors among ERA qualifying starters last year, but he's found a way to strike out fewer, all the way down to a depressing 4.18 K rate. Saunders is definitely connecting with plenty of bats, and he's hardly the greatest groundball pitcher in the majors--his 1.21 GB/FB rate is good, but not good enough to make up for that abysmal K rate.

So how does he keep his ERA and WHIP? He's a lucky, lucky man. I told you he was a lucky man last year when he posted a BABIP of .267 and had only 8.7% of his FB go for home runs. If you didn't listen then you're probably wanting to laugh in my face now, but observe: luck does strike twice, as Saunders has somehow stumbled on a .249 BABIP and a groovy 6.6% HR/FB rate. Neither of those, of course, are stats he can control, which means there is major regression on the horizon.

There is a very useful stat that I often refer to called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which serves as a sort of ERA predictor based on non-luck and non-fielding factors. Saunders has a very pedestrian FIP of 4.25, almost exactly near the middle of all ERA qualifiers, and his FIP/ERA gap of -1.59 is ninth in the majors. That all translates to a pitcher that I do not want to have on my roster when the regression comes home to roost, and I'm sure you can find an owner who doesn't read my column and is more than happy to pay fifth or sixth round value for these stats. Remember the ultimate goal for trading SPs--you want their best start to be the last one on your roster. With Joe Saunders, this may be your chance.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Cliff Lee - 5/8/09

2009-05-09T09:31:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Cliff Lee v DET, 5/8/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K

I didn't intend to keep such a theme of hard-luck pitchers going, but when it's May 9th and you see a pitcher's season stats of 3.45 ERA with a 1-5 record--and it's a pitcher like Cliff Lee, who everyone had an opinion about preseason, you can't help but write about him.

For the record, my opinion never wavered; I felt Lee was a top ten SP and felt there was a multitude of statistical evidence that his season was not going to be an abberation. Obviously a repeat was not to be expected, but certainly ace-level performance was a reasonable expectation. A ghastly spring training made everyone nervous, and then his first two starts rang up a 9.90 ERA and it was full-blown panic--enough that even I benched Lee for his third start, which just happened to be the new Yankee Stadium opener.

The corner was really turned beginning with that game--in his five starts since, he has thrown 37 IP and given up only 7 ER, striking out 23 with only 7 BB. That is Cliff Lee's signature: he's not a strikeout machine but he commands the strike zone and pitches efficiently; he's averaging a very strong 3.64 pitches per batter faced in 2009, even better than his 3.69 figure in 2008. And you also need to know that he is already one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, with a .352 BABIP that has plenty of room for regression.

But of course, the number I keep writing about this month is run support, and Lee is receiving it at a historically miserable level. In 7 GS and 47 IP of work, Lee has received a whopping 12 runs of total support. That's a pretty extraordinary figure when you consider the Indians scored 14 runs in an inning this year. Lee's 2.30 RS/9, fifth worst in baseball, simply cannot stay at this depressed level. His anger in the dugout boiled over after horrid defense led to an unnecessary run.

The bottom line is, Cliff Lee's stock is on the way up and if there's any chance you can still trade for him since he's not getting his owner any wins, now may be your last chance. But all the stats are there--just like they've always been--and Lee is still a pitcher I would love to own for the rest of 2009.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Johan Santana - 5/6/09

2009-05-06T22:53:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Johan Santana v PHI, 5/6/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 10 K

I was going to write something about Zach Greinke on Monday...but really couldn't come up with any words. It was, and is, hard to put the numbers he is generating into words. After six starts, he is putting up numbers across the board that are phenomenal. He is the darling not just of fantasy, but of sports in general.

But Johan Santana is still the best pitcher in the major leagues. And he's doing it with his team gagging on a spoon behind him.

We've now seen six starts out of both Santana and Greinke. They now share the major league strikeout lead with 54--but Santana has done it in five fewer innings. Greinke's ERA of 0.40 is surely extraordinary, but Santana has now pushed his below 1.00 as well--equally absurd. Both are the only pitchers in the majors other than Dan Haren with a sub-0.90 WHIP. No one would ever complain about either leading their fantasy team--but observe, for a moment, the situations that Santana continues to thrive in.

Wednesday, his team is facing their hated archrivals the Phillies, at their new home Citi Field. It's a playoff atmosphere. Santana's offense, as usual (he now has the fifth-worst run support in the majors, exactly what you want to be doing for your ace), puts up nothing--and he brushed it off, as only he can do, throwing 72% of his pitches for strikes and carving up hitters. Striking out double digits while throwing only 3.7 pitches per batter faced is incredible. And it took until the seventh inning before Phillies errors finally got a run on the board, and the Mets were able to sweat out the 1-0 victory. It is disgusting how poorly the Mets support him, but that's not the point.

Before the season started, there were pundits who thought Santana wasn't even the top-ranked SP anymore. They figured it had to be time for injuries to bite him. They were in love with Lincecum's strikeouts and CC's durability, and somehow glazed over the fact that Santana had just put up a career-high ERA. They laughed at me (sometimes live on the air) when I said Santana was still a first-rounder. How does this 12.25 K/9 rate look now? Wish you had used your first round pick on that instead of Jimmy Rollins? And Santana does this under constant, excruciating pressure for a franchise that provides no run support in a city that grinds and flattens its superstars. And he has yet to bat an eyelash.

I take nothing away from Greinke, he's clearly the best pitcher in the AL right now and the MVP of fantasy considering his draft position (and I don't know how I managed to avoid drafting him in any league). But his city is just happy to be at .500--and his division is terrible. He pitches with no pressure; he's basically freerolling at this point. The fate of the Big Apple and the dramatic circus of the Mets weighs on the shoulders of Johan Santana with every start, and all he does is look better and better every day. He is so obviously the greatest pitcher of his era, and he is in his prime and pitching like an absolute superstar when it matters most. That's why there is still none better than Johan Santana.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Dan Haren - 5/1/09

2009-05-02T21:39:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Dan Haren @ MIL, 5/2/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 K

After talking yesterday about Jake Peavy's hard-luck struggles with getting his team to support him, we now turn to the incredible April 2009 of Dan Haren. The season began with a 7 IP, 1 ER performance at Colorado--and a L. Then another solid 6 IP, 2 ER at Los Angeles--another L. Then to San Francisco for another 6 IP, 1 ER--and a third L. Imagine pitching well enough to have a 1.89 ERA, and an 0-3 record to go with it. Such is the nature of pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have the 30th-ranked offense in MLB and have been an embarassment almost top-to-bottom at the plate all season.

The last two starts have been continuing Haren's dominance, and this time with a modicum of run support to with them. First 9 K in 7 IP against Colorado, then 10 K in a CG against the Cubs--and Saturday, for the third straight game, Haren set a new season-high in strikeouts, carving up the Brewers like lunchmeat, throwing 68% of pitches for strikes and still posting an amazing 3.6 pitchers per batter faced--really a feat considering his strikeout rate.

Haren now has a 1.54 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and an unfathomable 7.20 K/BB rate which would set all kinds of records if he maintained it. Even with everything Johan Santana is doing Haren is still probably the Cy Young choice at this early point in the season. But you need to remember--this is what Haren does; he is the ultimate early-season pitcher. In 2007, he went through a stretch where he raised his ERA in 13 straight games. That stretch is going to come in 2009, and while he will likely end up as one of the top 5-7 SPs in baseball, if you can actually flip him for a top 10 offensive player at some point, don't be afraid to pull the trigger. Those who have sold high on Haren the last two years have been grateful they did so in September.

Other notes from Saturday: It's now time for Jarrod Washburn to be owned in all standard leagues, so go check your wire and say hooray for contract years. Joel Pineiro should probably be picked up also in any league with any real depth...meanwhile, Oliver Perez can be safely cut in 100% of leagues since he's headed back to the minors, and David Price owners can begin the Jeff Neimann watch again after he ran up his season ERA to 5.68...the Cubs-Marlins game showed Ted Lilly in spectacular form, running up 10 K and no walks in 8 IP; while across the way, Anibal Sanchez looked unhealthy with yet another first-inning blowup and complaints of the ball grip. The Marlins really need this kid to complete their rotation, especially until Nolasco gets his stuff together.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jake Peavy - 5/1/09

2009-05-02T10:38:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jake Peavy @ LAD, 5/1/2009
ND, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K

There were a multitude of factors that led to Jake Peavy dropping from an early second rounder in 2008 to, in some cases, the sixth round and the 7th or 8th SP taken overall this year. There's no concern about his raw skills--his overall ERA and his K/9 leave no room for concern. But Peavy was the ultimate example of a great pitcher on a terrible team, and it's hard to look at his 2.85 ERA without seeing his 10-11 2008 record. Wins are an important statistic, and beside that Peavy's home-road ERA splits were growing more and more extreme in 2008.

Prior to Friday's start at the Dodgers, Peavy did not look sharp through his first five starts, giving up at least 3 ER in each start and running up high pitch counts and abnormally high BB/9 stats for him. He promised there was no health problems and that he would be on top of his game for the Friday start at Los Angeles--and boy, was he ever. Locked into a duel with lefty phenom Clayton Kershaw Peavy looked every bit the Cy Young contender, pitching 8 innings of fanastic, efficient baseball and throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes.

And what did he have to show for it? An offense that floundered all night against Kershaw, leaving five runners in scoring position with two outs and putting a gigantic doughnut hole on the board--and then a quick relief meltdown by Duaner Sanchez and a 1-0 Padres loss. If you waited all month for Peavy to break out, you saw what he can do in a big way on Friday night, but this is the reality of his season--probably another 200 K, and an ERA that should find its way back to the 3.20 area, but likely no more than 11 or 12 wins--surely not what you hope for from the first SP you drafted. If only his team could support him more--or a trade to a contender in a good pitcher's park would pop up--his starts wouldn't be this bittersweet. And if you did pass on him in the 4th or 5th round, the net result of the season's first four weeks should offer some validation.

Other notes from Friday: Don't let Mike Pelfrey's 3-0 record fool you--he still is laboring and should probably be benched (not cut) for a couple starts...Make sure that Zach Duke is not on the wire in your league; a 2.21 ERA through six starts can't be ignored any longer...Nothing made me happier than seeing Randy Johnson rain dominance all over the Rockies--forget 300 wins, the way he's pitching he may want to take a run at Cy Young's 511...why did the Rangers call up Derek Holland to shove him into middle relief? Despite taking the L, Holland will be a worthwhile starter once he is locked into the starting rotation, keep an eye out.

Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jordan Zimmerman - 4/20/09

2009-04-20T22:25:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Jordan Zimmerman v ATL, 4/20/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K

First things first: Do not read another word until you rush to your league and make sure that Jordan Zimmerman is not on the waiver wire. If he is, then pick him up. I guarantee you he is better than the worst player currently on your team.

The first major league start of an exciting young prospect SP is always cause for celebration--and usually looks pretty standard: 5 innings, 100 pitches, a few strikeouts, a lot of walks. Young pitchers making their major league debut are often, and understandably, a bit wild and inefficient. The Nationals' Jordan Zimmerman proved in his debut on Monday why he is the real thing.

Zimmerman was lifted after six innings for a pinch hitter, which was probably not an easy decision for Acta--because he was sailing through the game like a veteran. Juxtaposed against Derek Lowe, his opponent in the other dugout and the consummate professional veteran starter, Zimmerman put up numbers to die for. He threw an astoundingly low 72 pitches in 6 innings--a ratio of 3.27 pitchers per batter faced. That's identical, by the way, to the ratio put up by Greg Maddux (the master of efficiency) during his 2002 season, the best of his last ten years. Lowe, on the other side, labored to a very poor 4.26 pitches per batter faced.

Zimmerman also was dealing with precision control--71% of his pitches were for strikes, compared to only 56% from Lowe. When batters made contact, Zimmerman kept the ball down--a 1.8 GB/FB ratio compared to a pedestrian 1.0 GB/FB for Lowe, who is one of the great sinker pitchers in baseball. Zimmerman made one mistake pitch to Matt Diaz who left the yard with it, and otherwise made it clear that he is ready for the big leagues. His K/9 numbers were much higher than this in the minors and it stands to reason that he'll be producing at those levels very soon.

I'd rather have Zimmerman than Aaron Poreda, Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello, Derek Holland, or any of the other rookie starters I've been trumpeting. He may even be more successful in 2009 than Tommy Hanson. In the midst of a franchise that has so little to be hopeful about, Jordan Zimmerman is about to give our nation's capital something to cheer for--and something that could have a dramatic impact on your fantasy season.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Felix vs. Verlander - 4/17/09

2009-04-18T12:45:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K

Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.

The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.

For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.

For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.

When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.

Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ryan Dempster - 4/12/09

2009-04-12T19:57:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Ryan Dempster @ MIL, 4/12/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Not much of a secret that the Censor loves Dempster. I was proud to rate him in my offseason top 20 for SP and considered him the most undervalued pitcher in drafts after he slipped into the low 30's of SP rankings in most drafts. Dempster's spectacular 2008, where he sported 17 wins, a sub-3 ERA, a career-low walk rate, and an 8+ K/9 rate, may not all be repeatable, but his strong groundball tendencies and deceptive slider make him a quality pitcher.

Sunday in Milwaukee, the most interesting thing I saw was a strict reliance on his fastball and slider--both good pitches, but Dempster seemed to want nothing to do with a changeup, which is odd for someone who threw a changeup for 17% of his pitches in 2008. He clearly was having some trouble keeping his pitches down, which is his bread and butter, and that led to a lot of easily taken high fastballs, and some unnecessarily scary fly balls--anyone who saw Reed Johnson's incredible robbery of Fielder's grand slam will remember it for a very long time.

When Dempster got into a groove, he was able to use his slider very effectively and he did not mess around with the weaker hitters in the Brewers lineup. But his Kazmir-esque 110 pitches in six innings is excessive, even for a strikeout-heavy pitcher like Dempster. He has a good offense providing run support and what appears, if Sunday is an indication, to be a solid bullpen backing him up, so in reality 17 wins might not be that far off again this year. Fans will hope to see a bit more offspeed reliance and better first innings if Dempster's going to have another ace-type year, but watching him tonight did nothing to make me doubt that his skills are still intact.

Other notes: Lots of impressive starts on Sunday, but none as incredibly dominant as Aaron Harang's complete game three-hit shutout, striking out nine and walking none. Welcome back, Aaron...Josh Johnson arrived for real on Sunday. This kid is the real deal and if you drafted him in the 14th round, well done...I mentioned last week that I thought Sunday might be the last start Kyle Lohse would spend on the waiver wire in most leagues, but I didn't expect him to be this good. Be the one to pick him up if you still can...if you hate zeroes, check out David Purcey's line: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 6 BB, 4 ER, 10 K?! Purcey threw an incredible 4.7 pitches per batter faced, which is definitely one way to get pulled in the fifth.

~Evan the Censor

Rating the Skepticism Level - 4/10/09

2009-04-11T22:37:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
Rating the Skepticism Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

A few days ago we rated the Concern Level of some major league aces who sputtered out of the gate. Let's turn the tables now and rate the Skepticism Level for some guys who may not even have been drafted in your fantasy league, but look like some of the best in the majors in this short season. For this rating, 10 means "not a chance" and 1 means "this guy is for real."

1. Ubaldo Jimenez @ ARI - W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 2
This is the easiest one on the list--I already knew that the fastest fastball in the majors was the real deal; it was just going to be a matter of how efficient he could pitch and how much his control could hope to improve. Jimenez only threw 56% of his pitches for strikes, which is still well below where it should be for any dominant major leaguer. However, his dominance asserted itself well against a young and somewhat scary lineup in a hitter's park--the lack of HRs is very promising. I will take this start (obviously) from Jimenez any day, but I'm looking for him to get over 60% pitches for strikes before I'm buying him as an every-start pitcher. No skepticism here, though.

2. Jarrod Washburn @ MIN - W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 8
If you don't know exactly what Washburn is good for by now, don't know what to tell you. Over the last five years, his FIP (predictive ERA) has been no lower than 4.35, no higher than 4.78. His K/9 never lower than 4.8, never higher than 5.3 (not very useful in either case). He throws five pitches, but none of them with any real dominance, and admittedly there are still plenty of questions about Minnesota's lineup, especially without Mauer. The only X-factor here is the famed Contract Year, but Washburn doesn't have the stuff to make that kind of difference. Don't buy.

3. Kyle Davies @ CHW - ND, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 6
Those 8 K's are a career high for the former bigshot Braves prospect, and his career 1.48 K/BB is likely to rear its head sooner than later. Still, Davies is at least on the radar now; he had a super-hot September and is picking up right where he left off. Although his 4.1 pitches per batter faced is straining a bit, 65% of pitches for strikes with only three base hits means he was carving up the strike zone. If Davies can provide a reasonable bridge from Meche and Greinke to the bottom of the rotation, then once Hochevar is ready this team could be showing some marked improvement. For now, just watch closely.

4. Kevin Millwood v CLE - W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Skepticism: 4
I like Millwood for a few reasons: first, his .366 BABIP last year indicates a pitcher who is likely to show significant improvement just by being less unlucky. Millwood's FIP of 4.02 was way behind his actual ERA of 5.07, and his ERA should be much closer to the former this year. Second, he lost 15 pounds in the offseason, which always bodes well for stamina. Third, he's got a machine of offensive destruction providing him run support. A mediocre GB/FB rate has always been a problem for him but this start is a definite indication that he could be a fantasy-relevant pitcher again this year--just not an ace.

5. Kyle Lohse v PIT - W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 5
Lohse is more and more establishing himself as a reliable sniper start option who is not going to get himself into tons of trouble. An exceptional 65% pitches for strikes while maintaining a sub-1.00 WHIP is not even the most impressive part of his start--that would be the fantastic 14:3 GB/FB rate. Lohse's Sunday start against Houston (another team he's had a lot of success against) might be the last one he sees on the waiver wire of many leagues.

Hope the first week of the season is treating you well. Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta!

~Evan the Censor

Rating the Concern Level - 4/7/09

2009-04-07T21:24:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
Rating the Concern Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Monday was not exactly the SP ace renaissance that you'd hope for on Opening Day--chances are that no matter who you drafted (unless it was Johan only) you are looking at an ugly first-day line. So now that your team ERA is 6 and your team WHIP is 1.5, let's take a deep breath and look at the five biggest ace meltdowns from Opening Day, and rate the Censor's level of concern from 1 to 10.

CC Sabathia @ BAL - L, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 0 K
Level of Concern: 8
Why am I concerned? Because everyone else in New York sure is. Because a start this bad is amplified 100 times over in the bright lights of the New York media, which was always my biggest concern about Sabathia this year--the Big Apple vultures have eaten up better left-handers than him and forced them into exile, and already the leash has gotten significantly shorter. Sabathia is going to have to prove how well he can pitch in a pressure cooker, because after this train-wreck where he threw an absolutely pathetic 52% of pitches for strikes, every pitch of his next start will be under the microscope. It was the worst statistical start in the entire major leagues on Monday, and even though he was bad last year this is the type of stat line that defines a pitcher who can't find their stuff.

Brandon Webb v COL - ND, 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 6
Definitely some concern here for the same reason as Sabathia--when a pitcher like Webb can't find the strike zone it is problematic, and Webb could only throw 55% of his pitches for strikes. The GB/FB rate is still there (7:4) but Webb needs pitchers to be swinging to be effective, and that can't happen if he's nibbling all over the place. I'm giving Webb a bit more of a pass because he's been so consistent but with the troubling shoulder reports, this is a situation to keep an eye on.

Cliff Lee @ TEX - L, 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Concern: 5
This is more of a concern because it carries on what was an awful spring training, but let's be realistic here--Lee is facing the best offense in baseball in their crazy hitters park, and still showed the control (5.0 K/BB, 67% pitches for strikes) and the efficiency (3.0 pitchers per batter faced, which is very strong) that made him so successful last year--he was just flat out hittable, and got unbelivably unlucky with a .497 game BABIP. I will start worrying about Lee when he starts walking guys (or if he does this against the Athletics or Blue Jays).

Roy Halladay v DET - W, 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 4
Halladay did what he does best--stay in the game and eat innings even when things aren't going well, thus leaving a much more palatable ERA and WHIP than you might have had otherwise. Detroit's offense is very good and Halladay threw almost 70% of his pitches for strikes, which is exceptional. The only concern at all is the strikeouts--his elevated value this draft season comes from the hope and prayer that he can continue the 200 K pace from last year, and this 2.67 K/9 rate is going to cause a bit of hand-wringing.

Justin Verlander @ TOR - L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Level of Concern: 7
I was already concerned about Verlander, and this start confirmed it. I don't have a good feeling at all about how being the ace of a very poor pitching staff is going to sit with a pitcher who has shown major emotional shift tendencies. Verlander's control wasn't as bad as it's been at his lowest points, but a 2:7 GB/FB rate against an average Blue Jays lineup for a guy badly in need of a rebound season does not bode well at all.

I promise next time I join you, we'll focus on some good news! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 2 - 3/28/09

2009-03-28T19:48:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 2
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

If you joined us for the first part of our BABIP love-fest, hopefully you're on board with the Censor that the BABIP statistic is one of the key luck stats in analyzing starting pitching stats. Now, let's take a look at how it could have been used in 2008 to predict performance, and how it might be useful for 2008.

Five ERA-qualifying SPs posted a BABIP under .275 in 2007. Here's how their 2008 season panned out (2007 BABIP in parenthesis):

Chris R. Young (.252) - Struggled with injuries and saw ERA rise from 3.12 to 3.96 while putting up a career high walk rate of 4.22 and career high WHIP of 1.29.

Brian Bannister (.266) - ERA skyrocketed from 3.87 to 5.76, while WHIP went all the way to 1.49 as Bannister lost 16 games and became a fantasy pariah.

A.J. Burnett (.271) - Although he was able to win 18 games and strike out 231 through sheer force of will and surprising health (did someone say contract year?), his ERA and WHIP rose to five-year highs of 4.07 and 1.34.

Barry Zito (.272) - Scary to think that this turd might have actually been lucky in 2007 (and most of his career before that; he posted a league-low .254 BABIP in his Cy Young year), but the evidence was all there as his ERA shot to a career-high 5.15 and his WHIP blasted to an unholy 1.60. Ladies and gentleman, the real Barry Zito.

Ted Lilly (.272) - Lilly is the one man on this list who did not see much regression, though he did have moderate increases in all his peripherals. Of course, that could have something to do with the fact that his BABIP only rose to .283, so there could be some additional regression yet to come in 2009.

Although some of these five, and others in the top ten such as Rich Hill and Fausto Carmona, posted more serious 2008 declines than others, one thing is for sure: none of these pitchers improved, or even closely duplicated, their 2007 ERA and WHIP. With that in mind, here are some unsustainably low BABIPs from 2008--i.e., pitchers you may want to think twice about:

Dave Bush (.245) - 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Armando Galarraga (.247) - 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka (.267) - 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie (.267) - 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Joe Saunders (.267) - 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gavin Floyd (.268) - 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Be very, very careful when targeting any of these pitchers in 2009 drafts--you can be relatively certain that you will not be able to duplicate 2008 performance.

Tune in soon when the Starting Line returns with the flip side--how to interpret pitchers with unusually high BABIP. Make sure to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta luego!

~Evan the Censor

Last Minute Draft Prep - A Value Staff - 3/26/09

2009-03-26T19:00:00.000-07:00

It's no secret that the Censor is the world's biggest lover of starting pitching, and as such I always do my best to grab at least a couple anchors for my staff in the very early rounds. Maybe you don't feel the same and prefer to draft a staff more from the value perspective. If that's your goal, I've been scouring the most current ADP reports and I've got a seven-man rotation for your fantasy team that I think will have no problem outperforming their draft positions. This staff will get you wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP help across the board and put a value-oriented drafter on the fast track to a league title!

Chad Billingsley - 16th SP overall, ADP mid-8th round
His stuff is unquestionable--201 Ks good for ninth in the majors--and his 3.14 ERA is undoubtedly impressive for such a young kid in his first full year in the rotation. He's a true ace and should have no problem going for 16 wins again in 2009. I thought he was a bit overhyped at one point, but (false) injury fears have pushed his ADP down to a level where I would love to have him. I can promise there won't be fifteen better fantasy starters this year.

Ricky Nolasco - 26th SP overall, ADP early 11th round
Nolasco is my kind of pitcher--a control pitcher. Only four pitchers in the majors with 210+ IP had fewer walks than Nolasco's 42 BB in 212.1 IP. He maintains that control while still maintaining a strong 7.9 K/9 rate. He hasn't missed a beat in the spring with a 0.60 ERA, and all he needs is to lower the flyball rate and thus hopefully get his HR/9 down below last year's 1.19 before he's a true bonafide ace.

Brett Myers - 30th SP overall, ADP mid-12th round
Drafting Myers this low is a great example of how a long stretch of bad performance can leave a negative taste in other owners' mouths that lingers much longer than it should have. Don't be the sucker who can only remember Myers being so bad that he was sent down in the middle of 2008, and forgets that Myers posted a triumphant 3.06 ERA after the break. He is a great source of lower-risk strikeouts at this stage in the draft--he should have no trouble posting another 8.0 K/9 rate as he did in 2005-2007 with the adjustments of 2008 behind him.

Ryan Dempster - 39th SP overall, ADP mid-14th round
There's not much more I can say about Dempster that I don't say in almost every article I write. I think he's the most undervalued pitcher in all of baseball this year. How can a sub-3.00 ERA and 8+ K/9 rate, with comfortable peripherals and an above-average groundball rate, pitching for a great team who will guarantee him 15 wins, fall below the 10th round? If you let him slip out of your grasp you will regret it all year.

Gil Meche - 59th SP overall, ADP late 20th round
Remember when Meche's 5-year, $55 million deal seemed unreasonable? Carlos Silva and Barry Zito have done their part to make it look much better, but Meche's pitching has improved over the last two years, and he has now been named the Opening Day starter again for the Royals. Like every pitcher on this value staff, his K/9 rate is fantastic, and he had a fantastic second half--posting 11 wins and a 3.09 ERA over the last four months. Expect that level of pitching to continue, making this is a great value position for Meche.

Chris Carpenter - 64th SP overall, ADP late 22nd round
This could be the pick that makes your draft. Carpenter is two years removed from pitching at a Cy Young level for two straight years (he should have won in 2006). Now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery he is healthy and ready to contribute. So far in spring he's thrown nineteen innings with no earned runs, and in his most recent appearance he struck out six and walked none in five innings. Everything is working: the fastball, the 87 mph slider, and the solid curveball. Rotowire's most recent player update says "He looks ready." You think? Look for a rapid rise from this position in the final week, but he could still be a solid No. 2 fantasy pitcher by the time the season is done.

Ubaldo Jimenez - 70th SP overall, ADP mid-25th round
High-risk? No doubt. But the reward here is just as high, especially this late in a draft. After a disastrous first half, Jimenez pitched himself all the way down to a 3.99 ERA for the year. The walk rate one of the highest in the majors so he will always be WHIP-challenged, but his stuff is so sick it almost seems wrong--in an exhibition game against Milwaukee, he broke eight bats. The groundball rate is improving and the K/9 has incredible upside, and you just won't find a harder-throwing pitcher in the majors. When you take him this late, if it doesn't work out, you cut your losses and shrug your shoulders.

That's a staff that a value drafter can go to war with! Good luck in your last minute drafts, and if you have questions about any other starting pitchers, don't forget to e-mail me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Good luck!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 1 - 3/17/09

2009-03-16T22:13:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 1
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

spaz -noun Slang.
1. a grotesquely awkward person.
2. an eccentric person.
3. someone who enjoys starting pitching stats way too much.

Starting pitchers are generally drafted in fantasy leagues to help you win four categories: wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Of course, most of these standard fantasy categories are terrible measurements of a pitcher's actual talent level and potential to contribute to your team, which is why hardcore SP dorks like me use a whole array of peripheral sabermetric stats to isolate true pitching talent from the lies that basic statistics can tell.

This is the first edition of an ongoing column I will be writing on those peripheral stats. You will learn which ratios identify talent, and which identify luck. The first statistic we will be addressing is, most definitely, the latter: batting average on balls in play, or BABIP.

BABIP is fairly easy to define. It is similar to normal batting averages--however, home runs are not considered for either portion of the ratio, and the denominator also discards strikeouts and adds back sacrifice flies. As an example, I'll take a random game from Johan Santana's game log: 8/12 against the Nationals. Santana faced 30 batters in 7 innings, giving up 8 hits, 1 HR, and 2 BB, while striking out 6. BABIP is calculated as hits minus HR (7) divided by AB minus K & HR (28 - 6 - 1 = 21) -- equaling a .333 BABIP, as opposed to actual BA given up, which would be 8 hits / 28 AB = .285.

So that's the calculation. Now the importance--BABIP is the most fluky, non-skill-related SP statistic that you can see. It is calculated the same way for hitters, but is not nearly as fluky and regression-prone for hitters. It has been demonstrated time and time again that all starting pitchers regress to a BABIP close to .300. There are natural inclinations to think this wouldn't be the case for certain types of pitchers, so let's look at some 2008 statistics (limited to ERA qualifiers) to see if this bears out. For now I'm covering up all the names.

First, let's look at the numbers. Of the 88 ERA qualifiers (at least 162 IP), the lowest BABIP posted was .245. If regression holds true, this pitcher was extremely lucky with the distribution of balls in play and is prone to have many more of those balls in play turn into base hits. Beware a big downswing coming. The highest BABIP posted was a .366, which indicates a serious run of bad luck and a pitcher who is probably at least a bit better than his numbers and could have some value at a cheap price. The median BABIP was .302, which is right in line with where regression should take them. In the cases, very often what you see is what you get.

The natural questions when looking for holes in the usage of BABIP to determine fluky pitchers--wouldn't BABIP naturally swing for SPs based on their home run rate, since home runs are not considered? Wouldn't high-strikeout pitchers have a higher BABIP? Wouldn't a higher groundball rate lead to a lower BABIP? Let's look at the top five and bottom five in these categories in 2008:

Top 5 (lowest) HR/9 rates BABIP: .313, .305, .306, .297, .311 = .306 average BABIP

Bottom 5 (highest) HR/9 rates BABIP: .326, .317, .289, .301, .309 = .308 average BABIP

Top 5 K/9 rates BABIP: .313, .306, .328, .323, .306 = .315 average BABIP

Bottom 5 K/9 rates BABIP: .345, .308, .289, .315, .327 = .317 average BABIP

Top 5 GB% BABIP: .297, .287, .308, .306, .273 = .294 average BABIP

Bottom 5 GB% BABIP: .280, .306, .290, .304, .283 = .293 average BABIP

Although these individual samples as a whole are fairly fluky, they demonstrate that even the largest differences in these seemingly relevant categories mean absolutely nothing when it comes to BABIP. What matters, is really one thing: fluky luck.

There is plenty of other published research on the luck nature of BABIP, but I think enough of a case is made here without belaboring the point. If we can all agree that BABIP is a stat that can identify luck, then the next step is applying it to 2008 seasons--and seeing how we can identify the under and the overvalued SPs by doing so. And that will be the subject of my next column!

See you soon,

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - NL East - 3/14/09

2009-03-14T11:04:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Our final stop around the major leagues takes us to the Censor's collision of heart vs. head. Four teams that I hate and root against feverishly every single year, and one that I dearly love and treasure beyond all rational analysis. So having said that, who do you think I'm going to rank as the best rotation in the division?

New York Mets
1. Johan Santana
2. John Maine
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. Oliver Perez
5. Freddy Garcia

The Line: There's a hefty dose of uncertainty around the bottom half of the rotation, but my heart leaps up when I behold the best SP in all of baseball. Santana has proven before that he has the ability to make an entire team and rotation better when he puts them on his shoulders and the young pitchers of the Mets will need that more than ever. Now he's dodged the WBC and is coming off what some call a "disappointing" season where all he did was post a career-year low ERA of 2.53 and lead the major leagues in quality starts with 28--imagine 28 quality starts again, with the renewed Mets bullpen, and you see why he is still obviously the first SP off the board. It's hard to remember that Maine pitched like an All-Star for the first half of 2007--that may have been over his head, but the response to last year's disappointing season in mock drafts has been precipitous. With a career 7.71 K/9, there is nothing but value for him in the 20th or 21st round. I wish I loved Pelfrey the way I used to but it's tough to understand how he could take 100 innings of 10.0 K/9 in the minors, and translate it to a major league career rate of 5.13 K/9. His control is getting much better and he's really learning how to be a ground ball pitcher, but he is not exactly a hot sleeper without the promise of more than 120 Ks. Perez is the real wildcard--among other gaudy 2008 stats, he boasts the third-highest BB/9 and the lowest GB/FB ratio in the majors. He also has a career K/9 of 8.35 and can be amazing in spurts, but his offspeed pitches dropped under 4% of total pitches last year and when he blows up, it's usually not only violent and ugly, but usually in easy matchups against bad teams. I and my fellow Met fans would have rather signed Derek Lowe, but we keep our fingers crossed for upside and talent. Just be careful. The fifth spot is now a question again after Tim Redding's shutdown in spring training, and Garcia is probably the best option--but I'm only saying that because the thought of Livan Hernandez, who could not break a plate glass window with his fastball and posted a hideous 3.35 K/9 last year, makes me ill. The best case scenario is for the young stud Jonathan Niese to be ready sooner than later, but the Mets have a very bad recent history of working young arms successfully into their plans (ask Phil Humber) and Niese has not been stellar so far in spring training. Depending on Redding's health and Perez's mental state, the Mets could be in desperate need of a deadline deal.

Atlanta Braves
1. Derek Lowe
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Tom Glavine

The Line: Those without a dog in the fight would probably be more inclined to call this the best rotation in the division, but hey, a man's got to follow his true love. I sure wish I was writing about Lowe in the paragraph above--he's so durable and consistent and fearless down the stretch and stealthily climbed to a 3.24 ERA with a series of late-season dominant starts. There is no fantasy team that couldn't benefit from him as a nice fourth or fifth starter in the 15th or 16th round. Vazquez is a very different pitcher; for fantasy purposes he's about nothing but the strikeouts with a superb 8.64 K/9 in 2008, but mixing that with 16 losses and an icky 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, his highest since 2000. He's being drafted higher than he should be on the basis of the likely NL-transition bump, but be careful because he is never a sure thing. Although Jurrjens led his team in wins and and strikeouts in 2008, that says more about the quality of Atlanta's 2008 staff. He is due for a sophomore slump with his lower strikeout rates and reliance on a mediocre changeup. I'm not drafting him. I'm also not drafting Kawakami because his stuff isn't that strong and it's very difficult to know what to expect a 34-year-old import rookie, and I still have a scar where I drafted Kei Igawa in 2006. Do whatever you want with Glavine. I'm not drafting him because, well, I hate him, and anyway it won't take long before he gives way to the fireballing Tommy Hanson, who quite legitimately could be called the favorite for Rookie of the Year before he even takes the mound. He is worth drafting once you get to the 22nd or 23rd round if he's still around, but be prepared to stash him.

Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ

The Line: You can imagine it's hard for a Mets fan to target a Phillies player for any reason, but Hamels is just spectactular, now rather obviously one of the top five SPs in baseball. He's getting light work in spring since he threw 262 IP last year including playoffs, but don't worry too much. His K/9 will be above 8, he will win at least 16 games, and his breathtaking 1.08 WHIP should be in place again in 2009. As long as his changeup remains this unhittable, he isn't going anywhere and is an ace in every sense of the word. Myers took a half season to remember how to be a starter again (though I still think he would have made a great long-term closer for someone) and threw a 3.06 ERA in the second half, yet he'll still slip well into the middle rounds of the draft. With his strikeout potential, and remembering he's still only 28, there is really solid value potential there. Moyer isn't good for much more than humor when looking at his pitch stats--his 81.2 mph fastball is bested only by Tim Wakefield, and none of his metrics support a repeat of his 3.71 ERA--the downside is closer to 4.80. Blanton has a bit more late and deep fantasy value as an innings-eater and, believe it or not, has still not posted a L since being traded from Oakland. Happ has a lot of sleeper potential if he does in fact win the job, though he will need to work to keep his HR and flyball rates down.

Florida Marlins
1. Ricky Nolasco
2. Josh Johnson
3. Chris Volstad
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Andrew Miller

The Line: Nolasco's growth last year was delightful to watch as so many of his current and former Marlins teammates melted down. He's a genuine major league ace now and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace. His sparkling 1.10 WHIP is bested only by Halladay and Hamels, two top five pitchers, and his K/BB of 4.43 was good for seventh-best in the majors. He's being referred to as a cheaper version of Dan Haren, and while you won't get him much later than the 10th round, that still could be the steal of the draft. Johnson spent most of his major league rookie season in 2006 leading the major leagues in ERA, and after losing a season and a half came back and looked like the phenom he once was. He will never be the control pitcher that Nolasco is, but could strike out quite a few more, and should be available in the 14th or 15th rounds with plenty of upside. The sleeper upside train keeps rolling with Volstad whose 2.88 ERA in 84 IP in 2008 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the too-low 5.55 K/9 and too-high 3.84 BB/9. He's a reasonable late-round sleeper in the 23rd round. With all that potential in this frontloaded rotation, have we really forgotten that Sanchez threw the first no-hitter in years back in 2006? His strikeout potential and raw stuff are great but his injury woes have been devastating so far, making him one to avoid for at least the first few weeks of the season. For the love of all that is holy, don't draft Miller, who is now sporting a 10.57 ERA in spring training and pitches about that well. All I hear about with him is upside, but he's been ghastly every step of the way in Florida. Was this guy really the centerpiece of the Miguel Cabrera trade?

Washington Nationals
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Jordan Zimmerman

The Line: This one's easy: don't draft any of these guys! Lannan is the staff ace and should get an ERA under 4.00 but will struggle to find 10 wins and does not have strikeout upside. Olsen's days as a hot prospect are gone as his K/9 rate continues to plummet, from 8.27 to 6.78 to 5.04 over the last three full seasons. Nothing there for me. Hill is not fantasy-relevant, and is lucky to stay healthy for a month at a time. I'm hearing great things about Zimmerman and his dominance in camp, which makes me interested to see how the Nationals intend to screw up his career. And of course, the best for last: Cabrera has established himself as the biggest waste of fantasy potential in modern history. How can someone with a career fastball average of 94.2 mph be this bad? His BB/9 of 4.50 being 6th-worst in the majors was not a surprise, but his K/9 level plummeting to a miserable 4.75, 11th-worst in the majors, adds up to an absolutely pathetic 1.06 K/BB, a level that only '06 Steve Trachsel has sunk to among all ERA qualifiers in the past four major league seasons. I wouldn't even draft him in a 12-team Nationals-only format.

There we go, our voyage around the major leagues is concluded. Tune in next week as the Censor's new column, Stat SPaz, debuts with a look at BABIP. Until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com, and may I say once more--Go Mets!

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - NL Central - 3/7/09

2009-03-07T09:41:00.001-08:00

The Starting Line

SPs Around the Majors - NL Central

by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Writing about the NL West last week was both exhausting and exhilirating, with so much talent and fantasy relevance. The six-team NL Central is a far different animal--only one SP from this division will be drafted in the top fifteen starters, and there will be plenty of no-name DNDs. Take my hand and the Censor will lead you through all the fluff and nonsense to find the pitchers who belong on your fantasy team.

Chicago Cubs

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Rich Harden
5. Sean Marshall

The Line: I have this listed according to the current MLB.com depth chart, but it's far different from how I rank them. Although Big Lou, who can't seem to make his mind up about anything, is still undecided about Opening Day, Zambrano is the good money to get the start despite probably being the third-best SP on this team. His strikeouts were declining all year but the 2.84 pre-break ERA can not be ignored. He's only 28 and the upside is still quite high, and he could be a value pick in the 12th round, where he was taken in the FBS expert league. Dempster is the other Opening Day candidate and is severely underrated by fantasy owners who oddly can't wait to forget his amazing 2008 line: 17-6, 2.96 ERA, 8+ K/9 rate. He's a top 20 pitcher in my book but will last later in every draft--he's a total steal after the 11th round. Lilly posts the same gaudy win and strikeout numbers, but also comes with his share of blow-ups due to a much higher flyball rate--he is still a late flier. None of those three match up to Harden who I have proudly put in my top ten because his upside is not 08 Lincecum--it is beyond Lincecum. He is, quite simply, clearly the most talented starting pitcher in the league. His numbers in about 150 IP last year were jaw-dropping: 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.01 K/9. If you pay full value for that, he's going in the second round. Getting him after the 10th round is much more of an injury discount than is reasonable. Now that we've seen the reward, the risk is worth it. The forgotten Marshall won't be forgotten for long; he also has great K numbers and has really won over Piniella in spring training. If these five pitch to their potential, Jeff Samardzija has a long season in front of him as the most talented middle reliever in baseball. This could be the best staff in baseball--tell me again why the Cubs were looking to trade for Peavy?

St. Louis Cardinals

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Todd Wellemeyer
5. Joel Pineiro

The Line: I was surprised to see Wainwright go in the 10th round of our expert league. He certainly looks like an ace often when he takes the mound but his strikeouts took a bit of a dive as he struggled with injury in 2008 and he still hasn't overcome some control issues. I would lay low. When last we saw Carpenter, he spent two seasons as the best pitcher in the NL, and then two seasons as an injury-ravaged mess. Now he's going to be 34, but can be had so late that the upside if he stays healthy is tremendous. Lohse had a nice little contract year bump but his 5.4 K/9 is enough reason to let someone else take the risk; I'd say the same about Wellemeyer, who has better strikeout numbers but also likes to give up home runs. Pineiro isn't fantasy relevant.

Houston Astros

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler

The Line: I have never had Oswalt on a team of mine, and he's rewarded my skepticism by leading the majors in wins over the last eight seasons. But I will continue to bet on red this year, because I can't accept that his small 32-year-old frame can remain healthy and reliable much longer. He can reasonably be drafted as a top 15 SP, though. Rodriguez can run up the strikeouts but he's terribly unreliable and somehow, at the age of 30, has still never thrown 200 healthy IP in a season. Don't draft him before the 21st round as your fifth or sixth starter. Backe and Moehler offer absolutely no fantasy upside and shouldn't be drafted. And yes, you might remember Hampton from such teams as the 1999 Astros and the 2000 Mets, but be not deceived. His career ended a long time ago and no one has bothered to tell him.

Cincinnati Reds

1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Micah Owings

The Line: Wouldn't be a huge surprise to see major reversals from nearly every arm on this staff from 2008 to 2009. Harang was the biggest fantasy bust not named Fausto in 2008, and is not looking any better in spring. He was taken in the 15th round in our expert league, which is too early for the type of value discount that a 6-17, 4.78 ERA pitcher really should see. If you can get him in the 18th round or later, there is nothing but upside. Volquez, on the strength of his K potential and his extraordinary first half last year, will be drafted as a top 20 SP, but do not overlook his 4.27 BB/9, 7th worst in the majors last year. A pitcher like him who throws a changeup 32% of the time having trouble with control could blow up in an ugly way, so be skeptical. Arroyo is a total mystery--his ability to eat innings is good for the wins (15 in 2008) but how happy could you really be with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, his career numbers. It's looking more and more like 2006 was the fluke. Not much doubt about Cueto's upside--we saw it in his first two major league starts: 1-0, 13.1 IP, 3 ER, 18 K, 0 BB, 0.45 WHIP. He's a forgotten sleeper now and can be had for great value in the 20th or 21st and could pay bigger dividends this year than someone like Kershaw or Scherzer. Owings is competing with the terribly disappointing Homer Bailey for the fifth spot--his 1.20 HR/9 does not bode well for the Great American Smallpark and just in the interest of the team finally making a decision on Bailey, Owings probably ends up in a pinch-hit role sooner than later.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Dave Bush
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Manny Parra
5. Braden Looper

The Line: This should be easy. Gallardo's talent is top-notch and if he can be had in the 11th or 12th, you may want to take a chance because there really is Cy Young-caliber talent here, though it's really all speculation at this point. Parra has some talent too and is probably draftable in mixed leagues with his strikeout potential. The only reason to have Bush on your team is if you need an absolute last-round mitigation of WHIP but he's probably not even good enough to be that. Suppan and Looper are not draftable, just boring sniper start options in great matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Zach Duke
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Jeff Karstens

The Line: There used to be so much potential with this staff. Gorzelanny and Duke had their runs of promise but appear to be lost causes now. Don't give up on Snell yet though, his K potential is strong and his .358 BABIP indicates a lot of room for regression back to near-2007 levels--definitely don't draft him, though. This year Maholm is the one coming off a solid season but he's still pretty thin statistically, so don't be upset if someone else drafts him. Karstens is the worst pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff, which really must be depressing for him and his family.

Next week we wrap up our journey around the majors with a stop at the NL East. I promise I'll do my best to not spend the whole column talking about my beloved Mets. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - NL West - 2/28/09

2009-02-28T17:46:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL West
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The NL West may be the strongest pitching division in the majors. As many as five of the top ten SPs in baseball pitch here, with a lot of solid mid-rotation guys and some really exciting young phenoms. And yes, the worst pitcher in baseball still makes $18 million a year. What recession?

Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer

The Line: These are five very distinct fantasy SPs, who combined might prove to be the best fantasy staff in baseball. Webb is far from the sexiest fantasy starter, but he is one of the most consistent and reliable, and should have no problem taking out 20 wins again with solid peripherals. Don't let anyone tell you he doesn't strike anyone out either--he finished 16th in the majors last year in Ks. However, his sore forearm in spring training at least bears watching. Haren, who tied for 5th in Ks and 7th in WHIP in '08, actually has the potential to post better numbers than Webb in every category but needs to prove he can last a full season without fading. He's absolutely a top 10 starter, but considering pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade midseason if he has another sick run (4 ER in 43 IP during one six-start stretch in Jun/Jul). Davis isn't draftable, especially after some ugly spring training struggles so far, but is always someone to pay attention to for a sniper start in good matchups. Garland will probably win 14 games again, at least, and maybe with the new cutter he is working on the Ks could see a slight bump, which is necessary for him to remain on a fantasy roster full-time. He is probably a waiver guy in any mixed league to start, though. Scherzer is the real deal, in case you didn't notice his last four starts where he struck out 32 batters in 22 innings. He will definitely be drafted, but like David Price and Joba Chamberlain, is high-risk for limited wins and will definitely be shut down early, since he has never pitched more than 109 IP in a season. Make sure your staff is balanced accordingly if you draft him.

San Francisco Giants
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez

The Line: If the best staff in baseball is the Diamondbacks, then the highest K rate in baseball will definitely belong to the Giants. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Johan and projects out to another 18-win season with a 10 K/9 rate and a sub-3 ERA. He never seemed to tire in 2009 and if Bochy doesn't make him throw 140 pitches every game he could win another Cy Young. Don't let him slip by the late second round of your draft. Cain's 7.7 K/9 rate is stellar and his 8-14 record is highly misleading due to his pitiful run support (second worst in the majors), but his 1.36 WHIP raises serious red flags. He really only has one more year to prove whether he can be an ace-level pitcher as the hype promised, or just another mid-rotation guy. I wouldn't draft him any higher than 30th overall SP. At least health has not been a problem for him. I don't have a clue what to expect from Johnson but if he can stay healthy enough to throw 150 IP, that will translate to 130 K and probably at least 9 wins with excellent control. You could do worse for a fifth starter on your team. Look for him to gain momentum leading up to 300 wins. Sanchez is probably my favorite young sleeper in the majors--he is also going to challenge 9.0 K/9 and has very little pressure on him (and will learn a lot from Big Unit), plus his .327 BABIP last year and steadily improving control indicates he is a much better pitcher than his 5.01 ERA indicates. I have nothing to say about the other clown, other than he is the most overpaid athlete in the history of professional sports and anyone who drafts him should quit and go play fantasy NASCAR. I guess I will summarize my thoughts with this line from his 9/14 start at Petco Park, the greatest pitchers park in baseball: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 1K. If I told you that I knew a pitcher with a higher WHIP than K/9, does that sound like something you'd be interested in?

Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Randy Wolf
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Jason Schmidt

The Line: I was put in the position of having to dog on Billingsley a bit when every fantasy pundit was ready to propose to him in September, but now that I see him slipping out of the top fifteen SPs I see some value here. He is a K machine and a dominating force when he is on track. If not for a little blowup against Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season, his ERA (11th in the majors) would have been top ten in baseball. He has to work on his fastball control to bring down the WHIP, and hopefully avoid any complications from his offseason leg injury which doesn't appear to be a problem so far. Kuroda nearly threw a perfect game last year but generally does not have the stuff, or the durability, to be a reliable fantasy starter. In deeper leagues, Wolf could be a steal as a sleeper. His K/9 rate should be reliably over 7.5 and he brings a veteran presence to a solid pitchers park. Kershaw has undeniable upside but is being drafted far too early for a guy who hasn't thrown a full season yet. Give it one more year. Anyone else forget Schmidt still had a job? His presence on this depth chart begs an important question--who is actually going to be the fifth starter for the Dodgers?

San Diego Padres
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Kevin Correia
5. Josh Geer

The Line: Peavy was #2 in my rankings until the last part of the year, when his splits kept getting uglier and uglier. He now sports a +4 road ERA which could be a problem if he gets traded, as seems likely, and the pathetic team behind him will always make wins a challenge, which is troubling for a fantasy ace, especially one coming off a five-year low in K/9 and five-year high in BB/9. Too much talent to ignore, but be careful. Young's atrocious 4.22 BB/9 (only 7 pitchers worse in 2008--admittedly though Young only threw half a season) definitely caught up with him, and his peripherals suggest he has been lucky for a couple years now. His ERA will likely hover around 4.00 and his WHIP around 1.25, but even with injury risk he is a decent late sleeper for strikeouts in the 17th or 18th round. Baek and Correia will serve only to make poor depressed Padres fans continually ask "how many days until Peavy pitches?" Geer actually pitched pretty strong during his September callup but his minor league numbers indict him as just another sad, unusable Padres pitcher.

Colorado Rockies
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Greg Smith

The Line: Who cares, they all pitch in Coors Canaveral! Just kidding. Cook is a contact pitcher in a hitter's paradise, which spells even more trouble than his gnarly 4.09 K/9 rate, second-worst in the majors (and that's only if you think Livan Hernandez should count as "in the majors"). He's probably the worst Opening Day starter in fantasy baseball and will never win 16 games again. You'll likely find Jimenez and his ghastly stuff on most of my fantasy teams, as well as in the dictionary next to "heat." He got remarkably better in the late season and, with marked improvement in his control, could emerge as an elite pitcher any day now. And if he gives up home runs in Coors, at least they're fun to watch. Marquis' 1.30 K/BB is bad in every way and his historically high HR/9 rate could translate to many Coors souvenirs. Don't draft de la Rosa but don't forget him either--he was 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA in the second half and his 8.86 K/9 was bested only by six other pitchers in 2008. He's much more than the "deep NL-only sleeper" some are calling him. Smith, he of the worst run support in the history of baseball in 2008, came over in the Holliday trade and should have enough to get the fifth spot, though his 1.28 K/BB is awful and he may have a lot of trouble adjusting to Colorado. If he falters, look for Franklin Morales and his wicked stuff to get a chance to redeem a lost 2008.

The Censor will have to pull some (unpaid) overtime next week as the AL Central brings us six teams. Guess I better get to work...until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Sayonara...

~Evan the Censor

Expert League Draft (p)Review - 2/25/09

2009-02-24T21:13:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
Expert League Draft (p)Review
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

So as you're probably aware, the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is going down again in 2009, and our draft is next Tuesday. The Censor has the 11th pick of the draft and I'm feverishly preparing with all my silly little charts, projections, magazines, random number generating spreadsheets, voodoo dolls, etc. At the end of any draft, I judge my draft results on how happy I am with my SP roster--I am an SP nerd, after all--so at the risk of playing the entire draft with my cards face up, my future self has e-mailed me a post-draft article detailing exactly how well the draft went for me. Here's play-by-play from none other than me--seven days from now. Hooray optimism!

Early Aces - The 11th spot proves to be ideal, as the wheel bypasses Johan Santana leaving me to snatch him up with the 14th overall pick in the 2nd round. I excitedly pencil in another 2.90 ERA, 200 K season with 21 wins supported by the striking new Mets bullpen. I focus on offense for a couple rounds--bypassing the itch to draft Cole Hamels in the early 4th--but then when Roy Halladay is still on the board in the late 5th round (59th overall) I decide it's time to stack up more win potential and grab the major-league leading 1.05 WHIP, crossing my fingers for the strikeouts to hold for another year. Thus I've met my goal--drafting two of the top ten SPs on the board at reasonable values.

Mid-Rotation Studs - As the 7th round draws near its end, I can't help but notice that some of the guys I'm not nearly so keen on (Beckett, Oswalt, Kazmir) were being reached for while some of my favorites are being neglected. I sweat out the unpredictable wheel drafter and when the smoke clears, I'm ecstatic to see Chad Billingsley still on the board. As much as I love James Shields, I have to put Billingsley and the incredible K potential a notch above. I felt much more comfortable doing this since Halladay has already solidified my WHIP. Now that my first three spots are locked and loaded, I take a breather and focus on offense for a few more rounds and troll for solid values--I curse just a bit when Kevin Slowey goes in the 12th--until the 13th round is nearing a close and Ryan Dempster, somehow, is still on the board. I quickly check the news wires to make sure he's not dead, and to confirm that yes, he was 17-6 with a sub-3 ERA and an 8+ K/9 rate last year, and so being satisfied that my leaguemates have all lost their mind I snatch him up.

Late Sleepers - Erik Bedard in the early 14th seems like great value but I just can't take my fifth SP this early. Instead I fill up my offense and find an even more value-oriented solution for K's by grabbing Ubaldo Jimenez in the early 18th. Thank goodness all the other owners forgot how much better he got in the late season. Now I try to figure out the best way to draft another Mets pitcher (even us experts have our weak spot), but Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey get snatched up just as I'm preparing to take them, so I settle for the forgotten John Maine--just two years removed from an All-Star caliber first half--in the early 22nd.

Endgame Dice Rolling - Or actually not, since I generally try to avoid the hot young prospects with too much downside (yes, I drafted Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes in 2006), so I pass on the opportunity to grab the appealing Manny Parra and take the rock-solid Mark Buehrle, one of my favorites in all of baseball, to fill up my seventh and final SP spot. Bonus: I can watch one of his entire outings in about 30 minutes with the help of my trusty DVR.

The Results:
Johan Santana (2nd round)
Roy Halladay (5th)
Chad Billingsley (8th)
Ryan Dempster (13th)
Ubaldo Jimenez (18th)
John Maine (22nd)
Mark Buehrle (25th)

Can't complain about how that worked out--I've got all four SP stats covered with room to spare. Here's a rotation I'm ready to go to war with.

Now, let's hope that the draft actually plays out this way. Based on the results of other recent expert drafts, I think every one of these picks is very reasonable--but only if none of my fellow owners hear about this post. So shhhhhh! Let's keep this between us until then. I'll definitely be back after the draft with a recap of how my SP draft went, but until then feel free to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - AL East - 2/21/09

2009-02-21T11:58:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Now here's a division that SP dorks can get excited about. The AL East features some of the major league's best aces, some of the most exciting young pitchers, and some of the most controversial fantasy SPs. Oh yeah, and a few guys who pitch for Baltimore.

Tampa Bay Rays
1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

The line: The switch at the top of the depth chart for the Rays is both a testament to the growing frustration with Kazmir's inability to either stay healthy or throw fewer than 4.2 pitches per batter, and the slow realization that Shields is the absolute real deal. The new Rays ace, one of my personal favorite SPs in baseball, has an incredible changeup that he uses brilliantly, and keeps his strikeout numbers reasonably high while providing solid support in the WHIP area (the forgotten fantasy category). He is going to win a Cy Young someday. Kazmir is still top 20 in my 2009 rankings, based on the fact that he led the major leagues in strikeouts just two years ago and still posted a 3.49 ERA with his uneven 2008 season, but if he goes through another season without pitching in the seventh inning he will be dropping further down the depth chart quickly. Look for Garza to be overrated by playoff-starry owners who don't realize his K/9 rate was only 6.3 and are sure this is the year he becomes an ace. He's solid, but not at the level some think. Sonnanstine, like Shields, has incredibly low walk numbers (only 1.7 BB/9) but makes up for it with a nice scattering of base hits. With limited strikeout upside, he's still on the level of a mixed league sniper start. And of course, the controversial wild card Price--let's get one thing out of the way: I don't think there's a chance in the world he doesn't open the season in the rotation. That being the case, he could provide the same numbers as Kazmir with high strikeouts and low IP counts (and therefore limited wins) but as with any young first-year phenom be wary of two things: injury risk, and early shutdown risk. Discount his value accordingly. I would not draft him higher than my #4 SP in a mixed league.

Boston Red Sox
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny

The line: I, unlike almost every other pundit, do not recommend Beckett as a fantasy ace, and in fact do not have him in my Top 20. His K and BB numbers sure looked good, but he was subject to frequent disaster starts, and I need to see more consistency before I fully buy back in. Lester, on the other hand, found his way into the bottom of my Top 20 with remarkable composure and consistency all year. His relatively low strikeouts are all that's keeping him from true ace level. Dice-K is a truly confounding pitcher. Observe the pristine 2.90 ERA and the incredible 18-3 record--and stop and think that he actually averaged a win, that most valuable of fantasy stats, every 9.3 innings he pitched. That is borderline mystical for a pitcher who walks batters at a Kazmir-esque level, running up embarrassing 5.0 BB/9 and 1.6 K/BB ratios, and can't get deep into games as a result. But he's a lock for wins, strikeouts, and at worst an above-average ERA, and is my favorite Red Sox SP for fantasy players. Wakefield is just an innings-eater with some win potential and no real mixed league fantasy relevance. Penny appears ready for Opening Day but is DND until we see what he's capable of. Did anyone else not realize he's only 30 years old? The better option is to draft John Smoltz very late and wait for his June return, when he will take a rotation spot. All this equals a logjam for poor Clay Buchholz who doesn't appear to have a clear path to much major league time this year.

New York Yankees
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Chien-Mein Wang
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite

The line: The Yankee hater in me is trying to find reasons why this team and its mega-spending will fail this year. It's pretty hard with Sabathia who showed an incredible ability to put a team on his back in crunch time. Is it really that difficult to forsee that wear and tear having an effect into this season though? And will the big laid-back California kid be able to deal with the New York media that chewed up and spit out Randy Johnson? Still, it's tough to rank him any lower than third overall, as I have him. I think Burnett is a much shakier signing considering his injury history--there are few as impressive when he's healthy, but that has never been a guarantee. I can promise that he won't finish in the top three in pitches thrown in 2009, as he did last year, now that he's got the contract. There's a reason Wang slips so late in every round--his strikeouts don't exist and he's very shaky on the road, plus he's coming off a serious injury. Chamberlain is the most controversial fantasy pitcher for the second straight year. He will be erratic and probably get shut down after 160 innings. He will also have some incredibly dominant starts but it's a safe bet someone will drastically overvalue him in your league, so don't get your hopes up. Pettitte, the man of many T's, could still provide some value at the back of your fantasy rotation, especially since he will have so little pressure with the strength of the rest of the staff. Like Buchholz in Boston, it seems likely Phil Hughes will be on the outside looking in.

Toronto Blue Jays
1. Roy Halladay
2. Jesse Litsch
3. David Purcey
4. Casey Janssen
5. Scott Richmond

The line: Halladay is simply the best. An innings eating ERA machine who never tired or slowed down during 2008, and piled up strikeouts to boot. He's a top five SP going into drafts. There is no bigger gap in any rotation than the chasm between Halladay and the rest of these jokers. Litsch just doesn't have the stuff to support his numbers, Purcey is still nothing more than a sleeper, Janssen is a converted middle reliever who already failed once at starting, and Richmond really doesn't have much potential--though his startling 0.67 K/9 and 10.0 K/BB during his major league cup of coffee bears watching. There's one and only one SP worth drafting from this team, though everyone should closely monitor Dustin McGowan's potential return from injury (expected as early as May).

Baltimore Orioles
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Brad Hennessey

The line: Oregon's own Guthrie is really coming into his own, showing constant improvement despite enduring pitiful run support. He is at least draftable as a 6th starter and will contribute positively to your fantasy team's ERA and WHIP, though wins will be spotty. Import rookie Uehara has a lot of sleeper value and should be watched closely--scouts say he throws a mean forkball with very good control. Hill's fantastic 2007 with the Cubs seems so long ago. He's a reclamation project now after his command completely collapsed in 2008. The less said about Hendrickson, Hennessey, or the other four starters who could compete for a job, the better.

The AL is done--next week we head to sunny California and parts nearby for the NL West. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan

SPs Around the Majors - AL Central - 2/14/09

2009-02-10T22:05:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL Central
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Hope you were able to cleanse yourself from the stench of the Texas Rangers rotation after last week's column. We're getting into some much stronger, and potentially more intriguing, situations this week as we take a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up in the AL Central.

Minnesota Twins
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Scott Baker
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins

The line: No intrigue here--this may be the most stable rotation in the majors right now. Liriano might be a top five starter as early as next year but you'll have to swallow down a big lump in your throat to draft him as a Top 20 SP. I'll feel better once I see how he's using the slider. I've made no secret that Slowey is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors, with a K/BB rate that is just dreamy, and a surprising K/9 rate for such a "thinking man's pitcher." I will be looking for him in the 15th or 16th round of every league this year. Baker, who himself is progressing toward fantasy ace status, could go a round later and may even surpass Slowey by the end of the season. Blackburn, like Baker and Slowey, never walks anyone, but his strikeouts are few and far between, so he's more of a sniper start candidate in good matchups. Perkins doesn't have the skills to match his surprising 12-4 record and isn't much of a fantasy option. You could certainly do worse for a fifth starter in real baseball, though--just ask one of the AL West teams.

Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buehrle
2. John Danks
3. Gavin Floyd
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Clayton Richard

The line: I am an unapologetic fan of Buerhle's consistency and would love to have him at the back of my fantasy rotation--the man who threw a no-hitter without hitting 90 on the radar gun is coming off a September where he gave up a total of 10 ER for the entire month. Expect another 15 wins with a 3.75 ERA. I also love everything about Danks and will be ecstatic to get him as my third starter; he is a future ace. At the risk of my friend Todd Farino canceling my column, tread very lightly around Floyd who won't escape his alarmingly low BABIP and his unacceptable walk rate much longer. Prepare for a lot of "I told you so"s from me on Gavin Floyd in 2009. Colon is only worthwhile to me if I get to watch him take ABs in interleague play again--that's better than any episode of 30 Rock. Richard is the clear frontrunner for the fifth spot; he's a solid young groundball pitcher who will likely have success--but do not forget the name Aaron Poreda; he is a dynamite prospect with great stuff and when (not if) Colon gets hurt, he could have a chance to shine in the majors.

Cleveland Indians
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Aaron Laffey
4. Jeremy Sowers
5. Anthony Reyes

The Line: What can you say about Lee that the staggering fantasy line doesn't tell you already? He was simply spectacular in 2008. There's nothing an SP dork like me loves more than control and Lee is the epitome--only 34 walks in 31 starts over the entire season. I don't expect 22 wins, and I don't expect a 2.54 ERA, and I don't expect 0.5 HR/9 again, but even if I apply a healthy discount to last year, Cliff Lee is still a Top 10 SP for 2009. I was high on Carmona last year and have the scars to prove it, but reports say that he looks good in Winter League and he might still be around in the late rounds--he's only a year removed from a dominating 3.06 ERA and is at least worth a spec play as an injury sleeper. Laffey, Sowers, and Reyes are all low-K deep AL-only options--though Reyes did have a solid August before being shut down. If all holds true to expectations, expect the Indians staff to be last in the AL in strikeouts.

Detroit Tigers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Armando Galarraga
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Zach Miner

The line: Verlander was a confounding disappointment last year. He still will probably not fall out of the 10th round because of his staggering potential, but at least he is playing for a big contract now and hopefully has enough experience to pitch with increased stability. I won't be drafting him. Galarraga, sure to be the most mis-spelled name by fantasy pundits in 2009, just turned 27 and can probably attribute most of his 2008 success to good fortune, since K ratios don't explain it. Do not expect a repeat. Bonderman will leave owners pleading for a return to 2006 form but his strikeouts disappeared last year in the 71 IP that he was able to stay healthy for and who knows if he can stay healthy this time. DND. Jackson actually looked great in Tampa before a terrible September breakdown--he is a spec play, but with a lower WHIP could be a rewarding one. The fifth spot is still up in the air between Miner, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Willis seems to be a better fit as a lefty reliever at this point, and Robertson and his mammoth 6.35 ERA is a lost cause, so Miner gets the fifth spot by default.

Kansas City Royals
1. Zach Greinke
2. Gil Meche
3. Brian Bannister
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Kyle Davies

The Line: Greinke is now a major league ace and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace as well. All you need to know about the 25-year-old is that his best month last month was September--3-1, 8 ER in 26 IP, 5 BB, 28 K. He is only getting better and even at his projected draft value of round 10-11, he could be a sick value. Don't worry too much about the wins on a weak KC team either, he's talented enough to earn 15 wins on his own. Meche, under the radar, has become fantasy relevant again--a 3.09 ERA over the last two-thirds of the season is something to be proud of. With very strong K ratios, he's a worthy fifth starter in your fantasy rotation. Bannister's cliff-dive after a strong April was one of the more depressing sights in fantasy and he's got nothing to offer any fantasy rotation until he proves he's back to 2007 form. Hochevar is at least a year or two away from fantasy relevance. Don't draft Davies, but keep an eye on him; he had a fantastic September and has enough talent that a mid-season resurgence wouldn't be that surprising. He's still only 25 years old.

Thanks for reading--the AL East descends upon us next week. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy Valentine's Day!

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - AL West - 2/7/09

2009-02-06T20:48:00.000-08:00

SPs AROUND THE MAJORS - AL WEST
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The Censor's about to go hopping around the majors taking a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up for 2009, and offering some guidance on how you should be looking at these SPs from a fantasy perspective. We'll get started with the American League West--an easy place to start since it boasts some of the worst rotations in recent baseball memory. Hooray for fantasy irrelevance!

Los Angeles Angels
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley

The line: Lackey and Big Erv are both in my top fifteen preseason SPs and are both 6th-7th round picks. No one should be surprised if either puts up a major Cy Young campaign in 2009. Saunders is not better than a fourth fantasy starter with his terrible K/9 and K/BB rates and second-half decline, so don't be the guy who reaches for his luck-inflated win total. Weaver's value is very depressed after his disappointing 2008, but his 7.8 K/9 could point to a rebound and he could be a value in the 14th or 15th round. Moseley is not fantasy-relevant, and don't be surprised if he loses his spot to youngster Anthony Ortega--who would still just be an AL-only spec play until he shows he can strike major league hitters out.

Seattle Mariners
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Brandon Morrow
4. Carlos Silva
5. Jarrod Washburn

The line: King Felix is going to be the stud he always was expected to be...one of these years. I would rather wait and see for now and do not have him in my preseason Top 20. Remember he is, amazingly enough, still only 22. Bedard is healthy going into spring training and could be an incredible value pick in middle rounds--and is in a contract year. Morrow is staying in the rotation unless his arm does not hold up and is a legit sleeper with his ill stuff. No matter how bad the bullpen situation gets, the Mariners have committed to giving him a chance in the rotation and I expect him to seize it. Silva and Washburn are both hideously overpaid and pretty bad fantasy pitchers and either could be replaced by the superior youngster Ryan Rowland-Smith if they're bad enough--though offseason reports are that Silva has lost some weight and has been working hard to shed the "Barry Zito of the AL" label.

Oakland Athletics
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Sean Gallagher
3. Dana Eveland
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Dallas Braden

The Line: Move along, nothing to see here. Duchscherer is a major injury risk who was the luckiest SP in baseball before his season ended abruptly in August and you don't want to be the one taking him in the 16th round. Gallagher and Braden have some potential but are still not mixed-league options. Eveland has serious WHIP problems to get under control before he's relevant. The one pitcher worth talking about is Gonzalez who is a strikeout machine and is definitely going to start despite chatter about a bullpen assignment. Keep an eye on him as a deep sleeper, though he's not draftable in standard mixed leagues.

Texas Rangers
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Matt Harrison
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Scott Feldman

The Line: Every team has a young guy who they're hoping to get into the rotation for an extended time period, see what kind of potential they have. Unfortunately, Texas has a guy like that in each of its bottom three rotation spots in what may be the worst fantasy SP rotation ever. And it's really a shame--with the deluge of run support any Rangers pitcher is sure to get, you'd like to think there's at least one draftable guy. Millwood is too old and unhealthy, Padilla is too wildly inconsistent, and Harrison and McCarthy are quite honestly not going to amount to anything (yes, I have totally given up on McCarthy). Feldman led the team in quality starts with 13, but that's not a fantasy stat, and his 5.29 ERA is. Jason Jennings is back on a minors deal but too long a shot to get back to the majors. And that, my readers, is probably the last time that a Texas Rangers SP should cross your mind this year. Try hard not to remember that this team has traded both Edison Volquez and John Danks away in the last two years.

It will only get better from here. Tune in next week as we hit the AL Central! Direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor~

2009 Top 20 SP Rankings - 1/21/09

2009-01-21T10:13:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line - 2009 SP Rankings 1/21/2009
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Welcome back to the Starting Line everyone--hope the offseason treated you well. Little dalliances like the holidays, fantasy football, and the Yankees vomiting money all over A.J. Burnett to convince him to fill Carl Pavano's now-vacant DL spot are behind us and it's time to start turning your attention to the best time of the year--fantasy baseball draft prep! The Censor's been hard at work with his favorite animal, the SP, putting projections and rankings together to give you an edge over all the unprepared owners in your leagues.

This list is sure to be updated a few times as Opening Day draws near, but here is the first edition of the 2009 Starting Line Preseason Top 20. My projections in parenthesis:

1. Johan Santana (19 W, 220 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
Thoughts: Ignore everyone who tells you he's in decline--all he did in 2008 was post a career low in ERA, a career high in groundball rate (his biggest weakness previously), and pitch well enough to win 22 games if not for the monstrously hideous bullpen behind him. He is still a man among boys and the Censor will be drafting him with the 13th-15th pick in any draft if given the opportunity.

2. Tim Lincecum (17 W, 230 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: It's crazy to think he won't get a bit more of a breather at some point this season than he did last year when Bruce Bochy seemed determine to see his arm fall off. But the 10-11 K/9 rate is a lock and if he keeps mixing his offspeed stuff as well as he did in 2008, he and Santana will have a fantastic Cy Young duel. Whatever you do, don't just assume the innings will equal injury, that's not a responsible strategy. Lincecum is a second-rounder.

3. C.C. Sabathia (17 W, 235 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Thoughts: I'm a bit skeptical in the new uniform, as I always am with a New York signing because you never know how the media and the pressure can break someone down. Sabathia is an easygoing, friendly California boy and the Yankee machine could send him to Randy Johnson-land pretty fast. If he can pitch through that, he is a physical horse and a third-rounder. Don't take him before Lincecum though.

4. Cole Hamels (16 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: This is not a playoff-hero bump; Hamels had pitched his way to this elite level long before the Mets coughed up their playoff berth to the Phillies. What Hamels did in October only proved how impressive his composure and his masterpiece changeup are. How he lost 10 games last year is a mystery; a look at the game logs makes it clear the wins are going up and Hamels will stake his claim to a long career at this fourth-round level.

5. Roy Halladay (18 W, 170 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Thoughts: This one is really tough to predict because though you think of Halladay as dependable and consistent on the field, his fantasy fluctuations over the last three seasons are baffling. I can not believe he's going to strike out 200 again but his WHIP should be solid and he is still an IP machine--which usually means a high win total on a competent team. No reason to fear taking Halladay as your ace in the fourth round.

6. Brandon Webb (17 W, 180 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: There is definitely something to be said for consistency and Webb's last four seasons are remarkable--never less than 226 IP. It's easy to know what you're getting from him and therein lies the appeal, but having said that he's not going to win 22 games again, and his K/9 will be lower and WHIP higher than the four guys ranked above him. If someone in your draft wants him before the late fourth round, don't be too upset.

7. Jake Peavy (12 W, 205 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Thoughts: Peavy has put together the best five-season stretch of any pitcher not named Johan, even with a little blip in 2006, but it is frustrating to not know where he actually might end up calling home. His splits, which were never that alarming before last year, are off the charts now: sub-2 ERA at Petco, plus-4 ERA elsewhere. 0.4 HR/9 at Petco, 1.5 HR/9 on the road. And if he does stay a Padre, he's likely looking at a maximum of 11 wins again with this abysmal team behind him. Still, with his track record and continued strength in K/9 and ERA numbers, you can't discount him much farther than the fifth round or you may end up kicking yourself.

8. Dan Haren (15 W, 202 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Thoughts: If he holds to form, the right strategy might be to draft him in the late fifth round and then flip him in July or August right before he starts to fade. Haren might be a top-five pitcher next year if he can keep it together for an entire season, and you can feel confident that there is little downside risk and still some upside to these projections.

9. Rich Harden (13 W, 190 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: Speaking of upside vs. risk--I had to laugh when Harden somehow fell to be taken (by me) as the 19th overall SP in a recent mock draft. Sounds like a case of reading last year's draft prep manual and not actually looking at his 2008 numbers, which were so completely filthy I don't even want to repeat them. These projections have discounted him down to about two-thirds of a normal season and you know what--that's just fine by me. The reason he's a top ten pitcher is pretty simple: the upside is Lincecum '08 and then some. Take some Pepto Bismol before drafting in the sixth round though and be ready to absorb the laughter of your uninformed leaguemates.

10. Cliff Lee (17 W, 165 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: Is he the next Loaiza? Maybe, but the reasons to believe he's not are a lot stronger than the other side. What I love about Lee the most is that he does not play with fire--the lowest walk rate in the major leagues at 1.37 BB/9, and no statistical evidence that he was lucky (though his HR/9 is probably due for a bit of a rise). I will take a pitcher with that level of control any day. The Indians should be a better team this year and Lee's not going to win another Cy Young, but you can probably get him for value in the late eighth round of your draft--I wouldn't mind taking him before that personally.

11. John Lackey (16 W, 185 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)

12. Chad Billingsley (15 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)

13. Ervin Santana (16 W, 205 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

14. Roy Oswalt (17 W, 165 K, 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18 W, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

16. Ryan Dempster (16 W, 165 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

17. Francisco Liriano (15 W, 170 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)

18. James Shields (15 W, 166 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)

19. Jon Lester (15 W, 165 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)

20. Scott Kazmir (13 W, 180 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Archived: THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft Review

2008-12-17T02:39:00.000-08:00

THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The Censor was privileged to participate in the first 2009 expert mock draft on Sunday night (thanks to Tony Cincotta for the invite). While there were plenty of storylines and strange picks (including some sketchy mid-round offense picks by yours truly)--and a whole lot of reaches on drafting catchers--my role here is that of the SP nerd and I will focus my attention accordingly. You've hopefully been following along as I've been ranking the top 20 SPs for 2009; here is the Who and the Where of the top 20 starters in the first real 2009 draft.

1. Johan Santana (r2p14) - Yours truly was more than happy to get the party started. Frankly I think Santana is a first-rounder but with the soft wheel, I took a power 1B in Howard and crossed my fingers to get Johan coming back. Verdict: Definitely a fair spot.

2. C.C. Sabathia (r3p30) - You can't blame anyone for loving Sabathia after what he's done in the last two months. Now that he's going to the playoffs and getting his offseason money, it might be worthwhile to be a bit leery. Verdict: Not bad, but a bit risky for my taste.

3. Jake Peavy (r3p33) - This owner was reaching all day long and this was no different--no pitcher with a single-digit win season can be taken this high, especially with Peavy's breakdown this month and no real hope of the Padres getting much better next year. Verdict: At least a full round too early.

4. Brandon Webb (r3p36) - Webb's string of poor starts late in the season probably cost him the Cy Young, but he's a horse and one of the few sure things around, so even though I have a pitcher ranked above him, Webb is a solid pick in the late third or early fourth. Verdict: Hard to disagree with.

5. Tim Lincecum (r4p38) - The Censor's second SP was taken here with much elation. If you ever have the opportunity to take the major league strikeout leader in the fourth round, it is cause to celebrate. I realize there's injury concerns with the high pitch count but not enough to discount him and his sick numbers this far. Verdict: A value pick at worst and a potential act of larceny.

6. Roy Halladay (r5p55) - A perfect spot for the 20-game winner and IP monster. Cross your fingers he keeps the strikeouts up. Verdict: Right where I would have taken him.

7. Dan Haren (r6p63) - There were so many times this season when Haren looked like a top-tier pitcher, but another late season fade probably should have pushed him a bit lower than this. If an owner really wants Haren though, this is a fair spot. Verdict: I'd rather have Hamels, but the 6th round is fair value for Haren.

8. Scott Kazmir (r6p64) - Another questionable pick by the owner who took Peavy. Kazmir's potential is maddening but until he sees the seventh inning with consistency and gets his awful pitches per batter faced number down, he is nowhere near this level. Verdict: At least five pitchers on the board who should have gone before Kazmir.

9. Cliff Lee (r6p67) - My feelings on Lee are well-known--this is exactly where I've always said he should go and exactly where I have him in my rankings. A 22-win season is probably not repeatable, but his peripherals point to another top-10 season next year--for an improved Indians team. Verdict: Well done.

10. Josh Beckett (r6p68) - I don't know if this was an autopick, or just an excitable Red Sox fan, but this is a bad pick. Josh Beckett is not a top 20 pitcher going into 2009. Verdict: Whoops.

11. Cole Hamels (r6p69) - Should have gone earlier than the four pitchers taken before him--if Hamels drops into your lap this late in a draft, the fates have smiled upon you. Even a weary Mets fan like the Censor knows that Hamels has a Cy Young or two in his near future. Verdict: Smashing value; the fourth round is justifiable for Hamels.

12. Daisuke Matsuzaka (r7p75) - The WHIP obviously needs to come down a bit but pitching for such a good team is always going to be a positive. DiceK actually had a win for every nine innings he pitched--think Jake Peavy is jealous? Verdict: Looks high at first glance, but in reality a solid pick.

13. John Lackey (r8p85) - I have dropped Lackey and his declining strikeout rate lower than this in my rankings, but don't forget he has a solid track record and pitches for a great team. With a full season of health, an uptick is a reasonably expectation. Verdict: No higher than this, and not before Billingsley, but Lackey in the 8th round is probably fair.

14. Chad Billingsley (r8p86) - I've had words about Billingsley being overrated, but this is far from overrated, and I was more than happy to make him my third SP in this spot. In reality he should have gone before the two pitchers taken before him. Verdict: At the risk of self-congratulating, I have to call this great value.

15. Felix Hernandez (r8p88) - Every time I watch him actually throw the ball, I bump him up about five slots, so it's tough to fault someone for this, but in reality he's still a spec play until he puts it together for a full season--and he pitches for the worst team in baseball. Verdict: He could have waited another round at least.

16. Roy Oswalt (r8p89) - Here's another example of trusting a track record. We all wish Oswalt could have been a bit more steady instead of a bad run, then an amazing run, but as a second starter he's a great choice. Verdict: The upside is not great but it's tough to argue with after the last two months.

17. James Shields (r8p90) - I've said many times that I think Shields and his unreal changeup are going to win a Cy Young, and that could be soon. There's a great chance he's the ace of the Rays next year. I wouldn't take him earlier than this but I will be looking for him in the late 8th or early 9th all year, and I can't wait to see him pitch in the playoffs. Verdict: Just about right, and could pay huge dividends next year.

18. Carlos Zambrano (r9p99) - A weird, weird season. The only problem here is the injury and whether the no-hitter may have really exacerbated it. But we should know that for sure by February and if all looks good, Zambrano's stuff makes him a solid top 20 pitcher. Verdict: A toss-up until we see how he holds up in the playoffs.

19. Yovani Gallardo (r9p101) - Far too early for a guy who still has yet to throw an entire major league season and is coming off injuries. Raw talent shouldn't get you much higher than the 12th round, where Liriano was generally taken last year. Verdict: Far too much risk for my liking, with many better options still available.

20. Rich Harden (r9p102) - Even if he exactly duplicates 2008's season--including the 140 IP--his absolutely disgusting numbers make this nothing but value. We've seen the upside and man, is it sweet. Verdict: Now that we know what he can do, he is well worth the risk and should have gone at least a round and five SPs earlier than this.

Another season in the books. Good luck in football and stay tuned for updated 2009 rankings as the offseason progresses.

~Evan the Censor~

Archived: SP WIRE PICKUPS: The Final Week

2008-12-17T02:38:00.000-08:00

SP WIRE PICKUPS: THE FINAL WEEKby Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The final week is here, and if you haven't already turned your attention to fantasy football, you're probably in a dogfight for your baseball position. One win, or a few strikeouts, or even a point of ERA or WHIP could make the difference. It's not too late to pick off some sniper starts, and here are the Censor's five favorites for the coming week, from the pool of starters likely still on your league's wire:
Kyle Lohse - v. ARI, Tuesday
Lohse has been pitching nothing but solid over the last month, not giving up more than 3 ER in his last six starts with reasonable strikeout numbers. Last time he faced Arizona (on the road) he pitched six scoreless innings, and the lifeless deflated Arizona offense should be good for a Cardinal win in Busch. He'll also face Cincinnati at home the last day of the year if you still need IP.
Dave Bush - v. PIT, Tuesday
Bush's incredible home-road splits have regressed back to the mean over the last month, as his WHIP has trended up, but the Pirates are a below-average offense on the road and the Brewers will be in full contention mode.
Joe Blanton - v. WAS, Friday
Blanton told the world that he had fixed his mechanical problems early last week during a bullpen session, and it sure looked like it in his Saturday start at Florida. In the four starts before that, his ERA was higher than his K/9 which is never a good sign, but Blanton is a good pitcher pitching for a hot team with a home start against the abysmal Nationals. That's a recipe for a sniper start.
Randy Wolf - v. CIN, Wednesday
Wolf could be an incredible source of strikeouts against a young impatient offense. Four of his last five starts have been solid, and he has a very sturdy 4.2 K/BB rate in September. He's got momentum at exactly the right time for your fantasy team.
Jorge de la Rosa - @ SF, Thursday
Don't look now--De La Rosa has a 3.25 ERA in the second half. Now he gets a start at San Francisco, who he's already faced twice in the last month with great results: 13 IP, 2-0, 9 K, 1 ER, 1.00 WHIP. The Giants are not even putting their best lineup on the field these days, so this could be a real doozy for owners.
And once more--good luck in the final week!
~The Censor~

Archived: THE STARTING LINE - Watching the Wire

2008-12-17T02:37:00.000-08:00

WATCHING THE WIRE
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

It's likely, with more pitchers getting shut down daily, that many of us looking to max out innings will be trolling the starting pitcher waiver wire. It's likely that if you sort by whatever ranking function your engine uses for available SPs, you'll see these five guys at or near the top. Here's the Censor's advice on whether they're worth a roster spot for the last month.

Kyle Lohse

Season: 182.0 IP, 13-6, 106 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Last 30 days: 37.1 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

After a rough August, Lohse looked like he found his form again on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks, tying a season high with seven strikeouts. His growth this season has been impressive in two areas: the decline in flyball rate (a career-low 32%) and the sharp decline in walk rate (a career low 2.18 BB/9). At the same time, although K/9 rate for the season is still below his career average, it has been steadily increasing over the last two months. The 29-year-old has the Cubs twice, Pittsburgh on the road, and Arizona at home, and although the start at Wrigley is troubling, those looking for innings and ERA help will find Lohse a wise sniper start candidate.

Jesse Litsch

Season: 143.2 IP, 10-8, 71 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Last 30 days: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

You can't ask for a four-start streak better than Litsch's--and against four fairly scary opponents at that. However, the streak brings some concern. In all four games, Litsch threw more than 103 pitches, which he had only done twice the entire season previously. His walk rate also has crept up since his return to the majors, and he still brings no strikeouts to the table--less than 4.0 K/9 over this streak is just too scary to justify a fantasy spot. Litsch doesn't throw a pitch faster than 90 mph and doesn't have the selection ability of a Buehrle or Glavine to make that work consistently. His next three starts are Boston twice and at Chicago, so it's best to let him go and see how he does leading into the final weekend at Baltimore. He may be worth a final sniper start in that situation.

Yusmeiro Petit

Season: 52.1 IP, 3-4, 41 K, 3.44 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Last 30 days: 22.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

Petit's last start, Tuesday against the Cardinals, made him look like a young, HR-prone pitcher who hadn't pitched for ten days, which was exactly what he was. Although his offspeed stuff can be effective at times and his control stats are very strong, his GB/FB rate is a very disconcerting 0.68 and his BABIP is a disgustingly lucky .196. His schedule, which includes a matchup with Tim Lincecum and a date with Coors Field, is not in his favor and the Diamondbacks are always prone to skip him in the rotation anyway. Don't be too eager to jump on him.

Braden Looper

Season: 174.0 IP, 12-11, 87 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Last 30 days: 39.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

There's very little to like about Looper. The strikeout rate is much too low, the complete absence of a changeup or curveball leaves his arsenal too limited, and he is already at his career high for IP in his second season as a starter. Looper has gone 7+ innings in seven of his last eight starts, but will only strike out three or four in a given start and is prone to frequent disasters. He is only worth consideration in great matchups in very deep or NL-only leagues.

Nick Blackburn

Season: 169.2 IP, 9-8, 86 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Last 30 days: 29.2 IP, 0 W, 15 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Why would I dig on Looper and then recommend Blackburn, who appears to have a very similar line? For one thing, the schedule is much more favorable for Blackburn, who gets Kansas City (potentially twice) and Baltimore. But Blackburn's variety of pitches is what has helped him avoid anything that could be considered a disaster start since June. He throws a changeup that is a full 10mph slower than his fastball, which is an elite speed gap. He doesn't walk anyone and his GB/FB rate has stayed above 1.20 all season. Blackburn isn't going to carry anyone's team and shouldn't be used if you're close to your innings max and need strikeouts, but there's no reason he should be on the wire in standard leagues.

Archived: THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten SP, v3

2008-12-17T02:35:00.000-08:00

THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten Starting Pitchers, version 3
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Our updated rankings show an even greater jam-up in the top ten, as 2008 continues to be one of the most impressive years for starting pitching since the prime of Pedro, Clemens, and Big Unit. As an example--last year Brandon Webb and John Lackey tied for second in the majors with a 3.01 ERA. This year, the 3.01 of Cole Hamels is only good enough for tenth! If someone sneezes, everyone from #2 to #8 could be shuffled in a completely different order at this point. The starting pitcher renaissance continues and the Censor couldn't be happier.

Here's the latest SP 2009 rankings. Statistics are through games of 9/1/08.

1. Johan Santana - K/9 over last three starts is back above 10--however, WHIP is also an eyebrow-raising 1.32.

2. Jake Peavy - Slowly losing value as San Diego consistently fails him--19 IP, 22 K, 7 ER, zero wins in last three starts.

3. Brandon Webb - Can't overtake Peavy with his Sunday disaster, and in fact may be in real danger of losing the Cy Young to...

4. CC Sabathia - Just that close to leaping up to #2 with his no-hitter (yes, that's what it was). His second-half story is sensational.

5. Tim Lincecum (+1) - Frankly I wouldn't argue with him being the second pitcher taken. He has the major league strikeout lead despite pitching 25 fewer innings than Sabathia.

6. Roy Halladay (-1) - SportingNews.com ranks him as the #1 fantasy player in 2008. He's a first-rounder in AL-only leagues next year if Sabathia signs in the NL (which is the likely scenario).

7. Cliff Lee - Question answered: no one left with properly firing synapses doesn't realize Cliff Lee is the real deal. Keep betting against him and I'll keep collecting. He's a fifth-rounder next year barring a (unlikely) September swoon.

8. Rich Harden - A season ERA now below 2.00 and an 11.5 K/9 rate are so sick, but keep in mind Harden still may not hit 150 IP for the season.

9. Cole Hamels (+1) - Don't forget the quietest pitching stat--Hamels leads all starters in WHIP with a sick 1.03 and his offspeed pitches seem to keep getting better.

10. Dan Haren (-1) - Has a lot to prove in September on a shaky Diamondbacks team that should be better than it is.

The Next Ten

11. Scott Kazmir
12. Chad Billingsley
13. Ryan Dempster (+1)
14. Carlos Zambrano (-1)
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (+2)
16. Ben Sheets
17. John Lackey (-2)
18. Ervin Santana (+1)
19. James Shields (-1)
20. Erik Bedard (NR)

Dropped out: Josh Beckett

(all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com)