Archived: THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft Review

THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The Censor was privileged to participate in the first 2009 expert mock draft on Sunday night (thanks to Tony Cincotta for the invite). While there were plenty of storylines and strange picks (including some sketchy mid-round offense picks by yours truly)--and a whole lot of reaches on drafting catchers--my role here is that of the SP nerd and I will focus my attention accordingly. You've hopefully been following along as I've been ranking the top 20 SPs for 2009; here is the Who and the Where of the top 20 starters in the first real 2009 draft.

1. Johan Santana (r2p14) - Yours truly was more than happy to get the party started. Frankly I think Santana is a first-rounder but with the soft wheel, I took a power 1B in Howard and crossed my fingers to get Johan coming back. Verdict: Definitely a fair spot.

2. C.C. Sabathia (r3p30) - You can't blame anyone for loving Sabathia after what he's done in the last two months. Now that he's going to the playoffs and getting his offseason money, it might be worthwhile to be a bit leery. Verdict: Not bad, but a bit risky for my taste.

3. Jake Peavy (r3p33) - This owner was reaching all day long and this was no different--no pitcher with a single-digit win season can be taken this high, especially with Peavy's breakdown this month and no real hope of the Padres getting much better next year. Verdict: At least a full round too early.

4. Brandon Webb (r3p36) - Webb's string of poor starts late in the season probably cost him the Cy Young, but he's a horse and one of the few sure things around, so even though I have a pitcher ranked above him, Webb is a solid pick in the late third or early fourth. Verdict: Hard to disagree with.

5. Tim Lincecum (r4p38) - The Censor's second SP was taken here with much elation. If you ever have the opportunity to take the major league strikeout leader in the fourth round, it is cause to celebrate. I realize there's injury concerns with the high pitch count but not enough to discount him and his sick numbers this far. Verdict: A value pick at worst and a potential act of larceny.

6. Roy Halladay (r5p55) - A perfect spot for the 20-game winner and IP monster. Cross your fingers he keeps the strikeouts up. Verdict: Right where I would have taken him.

7. Dan Haren (r6p63) - There were so many times this season when Haren looked like a top-tier pitcher, but another late season fade probably should have pushed him a bit lower than this. If an owner really wants Haren though, this is a fair spot. Verdict: I'd rather have Hamels, but the 6th round is fair value for Haren.

8. Scott Kazmir (r6p64) - Another questionable pick by the owner who took Peavy. Kazmir's potential is maddening but until he sees the seventh inning with consistency and gets his awful pitches per batter faced number down, he is nowhere near this level. Verdict: At least five pitchers on the board who should have gone before Kazmir.

9. Cliff Lee (r6p67) - My feelings on Lee are well-known--this is exactly where I've always said he should go and exactly where I have him in my rankings. A 22-win season is probably not repeatable, but his peripherals point to another top-10 season next year--for an improved Indians team. Verdict: Well done.

10. Josh Beckett (r6p68) - I don't know if this was an autopick, or just an excitable Red Sox fan, but this is a bad pick. Josh Beckett is not a top 20 pitcher going into 2009. Verdict: Whoops.

11. Cole Hamels (r6p69) - Should have gone earlier than the four pitchers taken before him--if Hamels drops into your lap this late in a draft, the fates have smiled upon you. Even a weary Mets fan like the Censor knows that Hamels has a Cy Young or two in his near future. Verdict: Smashing value; the fourth round is justifiable for Hamels.

12. Daisuke Matsuzaka (r7p75) - The WHIP obviously needs to come down a bit but pitching for such a good team is always going to be a positive. DiceK actually had a win for every nine innings he pitched--think Jake Peavy is jealous? Verdict: Looks high at first glance, but in reality a solid pick.

13. John Lackey (r8p85) - I have dropped Lackey and his declining strikeout rate lower than this in my rankings, but don't forget he has a solid track record and pitches for a great team. With a full season of health, an uptick is a reasonably expectation. Verdict: No higher than this, and not before Billingsley, but Lackey in the 8th round is probably fair.

14. Chad Billingsley (r8p86) - I've had words about Billingsley being overrated, but this is far from overrated, and I was more than happy to make him my third SP in this spot. In reality he should have gone before the two pitchers taken before him. Verdict: At the risk of self-congratulating, I have to call this great value.

15. Felix Hernandez (r8p88) - Every time I watch him actually throw the ball, I bump him up about five slots, so it's tough to fault someone for this, but in reality he's still a spec play until he puts it together for a full season--and he pitches for the worst team in baseball. Verdict: He could have waited another round at least.

16. Roy Oswalt (r8p89) - Here's another example of trusting a track record. We all wish Oswalt could have been a bit more steady instead of a bad run, then an amazing run, but as a second starter he's a great choice. Verdict: The upside is not great but it's tough to argue with after the last two months.

17. James Shields (r8p90) - I've said many times that I think Shields and his unreal changeup are going to win a Cy Young, and that could be soon. There's a great chance he's the ace of the Rays next year. I wouldn't take him earlier than this but I will be looking for him in the late 8th or early 9th all year, and I can't wait to see him pitch in the playoffs. Verdict: Just about right, and could pay huge dividends next year.

18. Carlos Zambrano (r9p99) - A weird, weird season. The only problem here is the injury and whether the no-hitter may have really exacerbated it. But we should know that for sure by February and if all looks good, Zambrano's stuff makes him a solid top 20 pitcher. Verdict: A toss-up until we see how he holds up in the playoffs.

19. Yovani Gallardo (r9p101) - Far too early for a guy who still has yet to throw an entire major league season and is coming off injuries. Raw talent shouldn't get you much higher than the 12th round, where Liriano was generally taken last year. Verdict: Far too much risk for my liking, with many better options still available.

20. Rich Harden (r9p102) - Even if he exactly duplicates 2008's season--including the 140 IP--his absolutely disgusting numbers make this nothing but value. We've seen the upside and man, is it sweet. Verdict: Now that we know what he can do, he is well worth the risk and should have gone at least a round and five SPs earlier than this.

Another season in the books. Good luck in football and stay tuned for updated 2009 rankings as the offseason progresses.

~Evan the Censor~

Archived: SP WIRE PICKUPS: The Final Week

SP WIRE PICKUPS: THE FINAL WEEKby Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The final week is here, and if you haven't already turned your attention to fantasy football, you're probably in a dogfight for your baseball position. One win, or a few strikeouts, or even a point of ERA or WHIP could make the difference. It's not too late to pick off some sniper starts, and here are the Censor's five favorites for the coming week, from the pool of starters likely still on your league's wire:
Kyle Lohse - v. ARI, Tuesday
Lohse has been pitching nothing but solid over the last month, not giving up more than 3 ER in his last six starts with reasonable strikeout numbers. Last time he faced Arizona (on the road) he pitched six scoreless innings, and the lifeless deflated Arizona offense should be good for a Cardinal win in Busch. He'll also face Cincinnati at home the last day of the year if you still need IP.
Dave Bush - v. PIT, Tuesday
Bush's incredible home-road splits have regressed back to the mean over the last month, as his WHIP has trended up, but the Pirates are a below-average offense on the road and the Brewers will be in full contention mode.
Joe Blanton - v. WAS, Friday
Blanton told the world that he had fixed his mechanical problems early last week during a bullpen session, and it sure looked like it in his Saturday start at Florida. In the four starts before that, his ERA was higher than his K/9 which is never a good sign, but Blanton is a good pitcher pitching for a hot team with a home start against the abysmal Nationals. That's a recipe for a sniper start.
Randy Wolf - v. CIN, Wednesday
Wolf could be an incredible source of strikeouts against a young impatient offense. Four of his last five starts have been solid, and he has a very sturdy 4.2 K/BB rate in September. He's got momentum at exactly the right time for your fantasy team.
Jorge de la Rosa - @ SF, Thursday
Don't look now--De La Rosa has a 3.25 ERA in the second half. Now he gets a start at San Francisco, who he's already faced twice in the last month with great results: 13 IP, 2-0, 9 K, 1 ER, 1.00 WHIP. The Giants are not even putting their best lineup on the field these days, so this could be a real doozy for owners.
And once more--good luck in the final week!
~The Censor~

Archived: THE STARTING LINE - Watching the Wire

WATCHING THE WIRE
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

It's likely, with more pitchers getting shut down daily, that many of us looking to max out innings will be trolling the starting pitcher waiver wire. It's likely that if you sort by whatever ranking function your engine uses for available SPs, you'll see these five guys at or near the top. Here's the Censor's advice on whether they're worth a roster spot for the last month.

Kyle Lohse

Season: 182.0 IP, 13-6, 106 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Last 30 days: 37.1 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

After a rough August, Lohse looked like he found his form again on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks, tying a season high with seven strikeouts. His growth this season has been impressive in two areas: the decline in flyball rate (a career-low 32%) and the sharp decline in walk rate (a career low 2.18 BB/9). At the same time, although K/9 rate for the season is still below his career average, it has been steadily increasing over the last two months. The 29-year-old has the Cubs twice, Pittsburgh on the road, and Arizona at home, and although the start at Wrigley is troubling, those looking for innings and ERA help will find Lohse a wise sniper start candidate.

Jesse Litsch

Season: 143.2 IP, 10-8, 71 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Last 30 days: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

You can't ask for a four-start streak better than Litsch's--and against four fairly scary opponents at that. However, the streak brings some concern. In all four games, Litsch threw more than 103 pitches, which he had only done twice the entire season previously. His walk rate also has crept up since his return to the majors, and he still brings no strikeouts to the table--less than 4.0 K/9 over this streak is just too scary to justify a fantasy spot. Litsch doesn't throw a pitch faster than 90 mph and doesn't have the selection ability of a Buehrle or Glavine to make that work consistently. His next three starts are Boston twice and at Chicago, so it's best to let him go and see how he does leading into the final weekend at Baltimore. He may be worth a final sniper start in that situation.

Yusmeiro Petit

Season: 52.1 IP, 3-4, 41 K, 3.44 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Last 30 days: 22.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

Petit's last start, Tuesday against the Cardinals, made him look like a young, HR-prone pitcher who hadn't pitched for ten days, which was exactly what he was. Although his offspeed stuff can be effective at times and his control stats are very strong, his GB/FB rate is a very disconcerting 0.68 and his BABIP is a disgustingly lucky .196. His schedule, which includes a matchup with Tim Lincecum and a date with Coors Field, is not in his favor and the Diamondbacks are always prone to skip him in the rotation anyway. Don't be too eager to jump on him.

Braden Looper

Season: 174.0 IP, 12-11, 87 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Last 30 days: 39.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

There's very little to like about Looper. The strikeout rate is much too low, the complete absence of a changeup or curveball leaves his arsenal too limited, and he is already at his career high for IP in his second season as a starter. Looper has gone 7+ innings in seven of his last eight starts, but will only strike out three or four in a given start and is prone to frequent disasters. He is only worth consideration in great matchups in very deep or NL-only leagues.

Nick Blackburn

Season: 169.2 IP, 9-8, 86 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Last 30 days: 29.2 IP, 0 W, 15 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Why would I dig on Looper and then recommend Blackburn, who appears to have a very similar line? For one thing, the schedule is much more favorable for Blackburn, who gets Kansas City (potentially twice) and Baltimore. But Blackburn's variety of pitches is what has helped him avoid anything that could be considered a disaster start since June. He throws a changeup that is a full 10mph slower than his fastball, which is an elite speed gap. He doesn't walk anyone and his GB/FB rate has stayed above 1.20 all season. Blackburn isn't going to carry anyone's team and shouldn't be used if you're close to your innings max and need strikeouts, but there's no reason he should be on the wire in standard leagues.

Archived: THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten SP, v3

THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten Starting Pitchers, version 3
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Our updated rankings show an even greater jam-up in the top ten, as 2008 continues to be one of the most impressive years for starting pitching since the prime of Pedro, Clemens, and Big Unit. As an example--last year Brandon Webb and John Lackey tied for second in the majors with a 3.01 ERA. This year, the 3.01 of Cole Hamels is only good enough for tenth! If someone sneezes, everyone from #2 to #8 could be shuffled in a completely different order at this point. The starting pitcher renaissance continues and the Censor couldn't be happier.

Here's the latest SP 2009 rankings. Statistics are through games of 9/1/08.

1. Johan Santana - K/9 over last three starts is back above 10--however, WHIP is also an eyebrow-raising 1.32.

2. Jake Peavy - Slowly losing value as San Diego consistently fails him--19 IP, 22 K, 7 ER, zero wins in last three starts.

3. Brandon Webb - Can't overtake Peavy with his Sunday disaster, and in fact may be in real danger of losing the Cy Young to...

4. CC Sabathia - Just that close to leaping up to #2 with his no-hitter (yes, that's what it was). His second-half story is sensational.

5. Tim Lincecum (+1) - Frankly I wouldn't argue with him being the second pitcher taken. He has the major league strikeout lead despite pitching 25 fewer innings than Sabathia.

6. Roy Halladay (-1) - SportingNews.com ranks him as the #1 fantasy player in 2008. He's a first-rounder in AL-only leagues next year if Sabathia signs in the NL (which is the likely scenario).

7. Cliff Lee - Question answered: no one left with properly firing synapses doesn't realize Cliff Lee is the real deal. Keep betting against him and I'll keep collecting. He's a fifth-rounder next year barring a (unlikely) September swoon.

8. Rich Harden - A season ERA now below 2.00 and an 11.5 K/9 rate are so sick, but keep in mind Harden still may not hit 150 IP for the season.

9. Cole Hamels (+1) - Don't forget the quietest pitching stat--Hamels leads all starters in WHIP with a sick 1.03 and his offspeed pitches seem to keep getting better.

10. Dan Haren (-1) - Has a lot to prove in September on a shaky Diamondbacks team that should be better than it is.

The Next Ten

11. Scott Kazmir
12. Chad Billingsley
13. Ryan Dempster (+1)
14. Carlos Zambrano (-1)
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (+2)
16. Ben Sheets
17. John Lackey (-2)
18. Ervin Santana (+1)
19. James Shields (-1)
20. Erik Bedard (NR)

Dropped out: Josh Beckett

(all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com)