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The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
After our initial jaunt through some of my favorite skill-based statistics, it's now time to turn the tables and look at statistics that identify some of the luckier (and unluckier) pitchers in baseball--which is the real information that you want when targeting buy and sell options as trade season hits the critical point over the next week. The theory behind HR/FB is this--for the most part, with sensible adjustments for homer-friendly ballparks, you can reasonably expect that across the major leagues, fly balls are relatively interchangeable and will tend to leave the park at the same rate. In other words, if a pitcher is going to give up a fly ball, it's not because of any particular skill that more of his fly balls stay in the park than leave. The major league average is right about 10%--for any given pitcher, you can reasonably expect one out of every ten fly balls to land in the stands. Significantly higher or lower percentages indicate some potential regression--and that regression is that much more important for pitchers with higher FB%. By the way, it's very important to note that this is a luck statistic only for pitchers. Clearly, it's a different story for batters, but pitchers are assumed to face an even distribution of batters over the course of a season. First, some historical perspective on HR/FB: 2004 Best: 5.6% - Tim Hudson, OAK Worst: 18.2% - Greg Maddux, CHC 2005 Best: 4.9% - Dontrelle Willis, FLA Worst: 18.9% - Derek Lowe, LAD 2006 Best: 5.7% - John Lackey, LAA Worst: 16.9% - Cory Lidle, NYY 2007 Best: 4.1% - Chris Young, SD Worst: 17.7% - A.J. Burnett, TOR 2008 Best: 5.1% - Cliff Lee, CLE Worst: 16.1% - Brandon Backe, HOU Pretty evident that those with unsustainably low HR/FB percentages had them in years that we can look back on and say "Boy, they had a great year that year...what happened afterwards?" Lackey is a notable exception, and Lee looks almost as good...for now. But you'll notice by looking at any given pitcher's five-year history that if they play in a relatively neutral park, HR/FB is subject to wild fluctuations. In my world, we call that Luck! Now, let's look at the top and bottom five so far this year. Five Best 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 2.9% - Zack Greinke, KC 2. 3.3% - Joel Pineiro, STL 3. 4.7% - Clayton Kershaw, LAD 4. 4.8% - Dallas Braden, OAK 5. 4.9% - Tim Wakefield, BOS Seem like a few pitchers on that list are having unexpectedly good years? Here's part of the reason. Greinke's total absense of HR is downright scary and there's no possible way it can continue for him. He's not exactly a major GB pitcher, either; a 38% FB rate bears out to a guaranteed ERA increase on the horizon. Not saying he's a fraud--he's just not this good! Don't worry too much about Pineiro who has the best GB rate in the majors, but Wakefield is on the other end of the spectrum--his 45% FB rate is a massive danger sign and he has never posted a HR/FB lower than 9% before. When he comes back, brace yourself for the regression (that, seriously, you always knew was coming).
Five Worst 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 18.0% - Josh Geer, SD 2. 16.8% - Chris Volstad, FLA 3. 16.5% - Braden Looper, MIL 4. 15.9% - Ricky Romero, TOR 5. 15.4% - Trevor Cahill, OAK Five relatively unappealing pitchers? Partially because their unlucky HR rate has showed you the worst they have to offer. Volstad and Cahill in particular have high enough FB rates, and enough talent, that you might be able to make the case that there is speculative skill underneath their mediocre numbers. Don't go running to pick these guys up--but don't let their 2009 difficulties define them in the future. Tomorrow, the Censor's favorite acronym to pronounce as a single word! See you then. ~Evan the Censor Labels: Chris Volstad, HR/FB, Tim Wakefield, Zack Greinke
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.comAfter reviewing two very standard fantasy baseball stats, I have to admit that this week's stat is something that I have cobbled together from other stats, but I find fascinating and very useful in identifying the truly dominant pitchers. The O-Swing% measures the percentage of times that a pitcher induces a batter to swing at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone. Conversely, the O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings outside the strike zone that make contact. What I've done is taken the inverse of O-Contact% and applied it to O-Swing% to invent my own stat--the O-Swing & Miss%! This is the measurement of what percent of an SP's pitches outside of the strike zone induce a swing and miss. This, to me, may be the best measurement of strikeout effectiveness (better than K/9 even) because a pitcher is only getting these swings and misses if their stuff and their location are so good that batters are either a) completely fooled, or b) afraid to take the pitch. I can't give historical data on this, but to compensate I'll give you the top and the bottom ten so far this year. Ten Best 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 14.9% - Chad Billingsley 2. 14.7% - Felix Hernandez 3. 14.5% - Javier Vazquez 4. 14.4% - Dan Haren 5. 14.1% - Tim Lincecum 6. 13.9% - Ryan Dempster
7. 13.6% - Jorge de la Rosa 8. 13.1% - Jon Lester 9. 13.0% - Francisco Liriano 8. 12.8% - Roy Halladay Now there's a list of ten fantasy pitches I want to own--SPs that I know have the skill-set to consistently dominate their competition. If you're still in a league that de la Rosa is not owned in, make sure you remedy that immediately, and if you need any more proof that Lester's strikeout ability is for real, here it is. Ten Worst 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:1. 4.4% - Mike Pelfrey 2. 4.5% - Brad Penny 3. 4.5% - Livan Hernandez 4. 4.9% - J.A. Happ 5. 5.2% - Vicente Padilla 6. 5.6% - John Lannan 7. 5.7% - Randy Wolf 8. 5.7% - Tim Wakefield 9. 5.9% - Jeremy Guthrie 10. 6.1% - Derek Lowe Almost zero fantasy interest on that list, other than Lowe potentially, and the reason is clear. When you can't get guys to swing and miss at your pitches out of the strike zone, you're either going to walk everybody or have to send lots of pitches up the middle and pitch to contact. Ground-ball pitchers on this list (like Lowe) can deal with this; guys like Happ and Wolf, though, who still put up decent K numbers are major red flags because those strikeouts are all coming from pitches up the middle. These softies don't belong on my roster. Hopefully you've found these last three days to be worthwhile. The Censor's taking a break tomorrow and then we'll take a look at the season so far for some of the major "luck stats": BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. Hooray for stats! Send me an email if you have any questions or feel free to leave a comment below.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Chad Billingsley, Felix Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wolf, swing and miss
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comMy stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years: 2004Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI 2005Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS 2006Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD 2007Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD 2008Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year. Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL 2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL 3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL 4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR 5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts. Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC 2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA 3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM 4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN 5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc. Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then. ~Evan the Censor Labels: GB/FB, Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Justin Verlander, Ted Lilly
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comThe Censor is taking a break from analysis of individual pitchers for a few days (though I'm always happy to take requests for specific pitcher analysis via e-mail) to become a complete, unabashed stat whore. At this point of the season, which we'll refer to roughly as the "midway" point, it's time to see who the top performers, the surprises, and the obvious overachievers are. In doing so, I'm going to look at three of my favorite skill stats, and three of my favorite "luck stats", looking at the top and the bottom five in each category, and we'll see what type of information we can glean. Today we start with my #1 favorite statistic for analyzing the quality of starting pitching: K/BB, otherwise known as strikeout to walk rate. I want my pitchers to do two things really well: dominate hitters and rack up strikeouts, and control the strike zone, thus keeping their WHIP (and by extension their ERA) down. K/BB measures the ability of a pitcher to dominate the strike zone while still keeping patient hitters off the bases. As some background, I will highlight the best and the worst of the stats I review over the five previous seasons (limited to ERA-qualifying starters). Here is the recent history of K/BB: 2004Best: 8.25 - Ben Sheets, MIL Worst: 0.85 - Kirk Reuter, SF 2005Best: 7.89 - Carlos Silva, MIN Worst: 1.19 - Horacio Ramirez, ATL 2006Best: 6.54 - Curt Schilling, BOS Worst: 1.01 - Steve Trachsel, NYM 2007Best: 5.65 - CC Sabathia, CLE Worst: 1.14 - Livan Hernandez, ARI 2008Best: 5.28 - Roy Halladay, TOR Worst: 1.06 - Daniel Cabrera, BAL Interesting to see the top end of the K/BB range declining sharply every year for quite a few years now. That pattern may be changing in 2009. Here are the best and worst K/BB in 2009: Best 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:1. 7.61 - Dan Haren, ARI 2. 6.24 - Roy Halladay, TOR 3. 5.91 - Javier Vazquez, ATL 4. 5.67 - Zack Greinke, KC 5. 4.74 - Cole Hamels, PHI These are five elite pitchers, and their leadership in this statistic only underscores their fantasy ace status. Haren has a scary-low BABIP (a story for another day) but even if his luck doesn't quite hold up, clearly he has all kinds of skills to back up a large part of his performance. The real story is Vazquez who is posting a career-high K/9 and career-low BB/9--an absolutely phenomenal feat considering he is now in his 12th year in the majors. Every statistical indicator shows he is pitching better than his 2.95 ERA and his absence from the All-Star team was a travesty. If someone thinks they're smart to sell him high, don't be afraid to pay for him, he's an ace. If you have an ignorant owner who will unload Hamels and his 4.72 ERA, he's only going to get better. Worst 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:1. 1.04 - Trevor Cahill, OAK 2. 1.17 - Jeff Suppan, MIL 3. 1.19 - Micah Owings, CIN 4. 1.22 - Jon Garland, ARI 5. 1.30 - John Lannan, WAS No surprise here--if you need more evidence that this is a fantasy skill stat, take a look at five guys who belong on nobody's fantasy team. No surprises here. Obviously it's time to give up on Owings (and you're a year late) but the only real disappointment here to me is Cahill--a rookie, to be fair, and one who never projected to be a high-K guy, but his total and complete lack of plate dominance is a bit troubling. He seems to almost pitch scared at times, afraid to challenge hitters and trying way too hard to finesse his way out of every situation. There is plenty of talent there, and his name isn't one to forget just yet. The rest of these guys should have been forgotten in fantasy-land long ago. Back tomorrow with more adventures in the land of the stat spaz! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, K/BB, Roy Halladay, Trevor Cahill
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comTed Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009 W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning. But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston. Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands. A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Ted Lilly
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comJason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009 W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through. First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants. And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in. Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge. Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008. ~Evan the Censor~ Labels: Jason Marquis
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comJorge de la Rosa v ARI, 7/3/2009 W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K There may not be a pitcher with a more agonizingly tantalizing blend of talent and unpredictability (this side of Oliver Perez, at least) than Jorge de la Rosa. When he is dominant, he looks amazing with his fireball fastball and devastating changeup--in fact, only Javier Vazquez has a higher swing-and-miss percentage among all ERA qualifiers this year; a full 26.4% of batter swings whiff right past de la Rosa's pitch. But when he's bad, he is so bad as to incite fantasy writers to vow that he is forever unusable in mixed leagues and similar raging diatribes. I wrote a few of those myself after de la Rosa's 2.1 IP, 7 ER tee-ball fest against the Rays in June, the only game in an 18-game stretch that the Rockies lost. Now, however, with Friday's start and the two quality wins he picked up in his previous starts, he's back to looking like a real fantasy pitcher again, and his numbers demand that you give him consideration. I can guarantee that he's the best source of strikeouts you'll find on your league's wire--his 9.37 K/9 is seventh in the majors--and for that reason alone, he may be worth a spec pickup. But there are plenty of statistical reasons to think that you still have an opportunity to pick up a highly-skilled player for cheap: his BABIP of .329 has plenty of room to regress to the downside, which will bring down his 1.44 WHIP considerably (though walks will likely continue to be a problem) and his strand rate of 65.6% is the fourth lowest among ERA qualifiers. There are some luck elements to that stat as well, and if that regresses, we'll see a significant decrease in de la Rosa's ERA--which, at 5.14 currently, probably looks too ugly to pick up. But looking at the underlying stats, you can know better than that. With an FIP (predictive ERA) of 3.81, his skill set is too good and his ceiling of dominance too high to let him languish on any waiver wire. He can be benched in questionable matchups (don't let Coors scare you though, home runs are not his hangup) but can always be counted on to stack up strikeouts. If only the control could be improved, and some of the luck factors could regress, we'd be looking at de la Rosa as much more of the fantasy stalwart that he teases sometimes, rather than the waiver wire sniper start that all your leaguemates currently are treating him as. Remember--if you'd like the Censor to cover any specific starting pitcher, I'm happy to do so. Just fire an e-mail off to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy holidays! ~Evan the Censor~ Labels: Jorge de la Rosa
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