The Starting Line: Jorge de la Rosa - 7/3/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jorge de la Rosa v ARI, 7/3/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K
There may not be a pitcher with a more agonizingly tantalizing blend of talent and unpredictability (this side of Oliver Perez, at least) than Jorge de la Rosa. When he is dominant, he looks amazing with his fireball fastball and devastating changeup--in fact, only Javier Vazquez has a higher swing-and-miss percentage among all ERA qualifiers this year; a full 26.4% of batter swings whiff right past de la Rosa's pitch.
But when he's bad, he is so bad as to incite fantasy writers to vow that he is forever unusable in mixed leagues and similar raging diatribes. I wrote a few of those myself after de la Rosa's 2.1 IP, 7 ER tee-ball fest against the Rays in June, the only game in an 18-game stretch that the Rockies lost. Now, however, with Friday's start and the two quality wins he picked up in his previous starts, he's back to looking like a real fantasy pitcher again, and his numbers demand that you give him consideration.
I can guarantee that he's the best source of strikeouts you'll find on your league's wire--his 9.37 K/9 is seventh in the majors--and for that reason alone, he may be worth a spec pickup. But there are plenty of statistical reasons to think that you still have an opportunity to pick up a highly-skilled player for cheap: his BABIP of .329 has plenty of room to regress to the downside, which will bring down his 1.44 WHIP considerably (though walks will likely continue to be a problem) and his strand rate of 65.6% is the fourth lowest among ERA qualifiers. There are some luck elements to that stat as well, and if that regresses, we'll see a significant decrease in de la Rosa's ERA--which, at 5.14 currently, probably looks too ugly to pick up.
But looking at the underlying stats, you can know better than that. With an FIP (predictive ERA) of 3.81, his skill set is too good and his ceiling of dominance too high to let him languish on any waiver wire. He can be benched in questionable matchups (don't let Coors scare you though, home runs are not his hangup) but can always be counted on to stack up strikeouts. If only the control could be improved, and some of the luck factors could regress, we'd be looking at de la Rosa as much more of the fantasy stalwart that he teases sometimes, rather than the waiver wire sniper start that all your leaguemates currently are treating him as.
Remember--if you'd like the Censor to cover any specific starting pitcher, I'm happy to do so. Just fire an e-mail off to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy holidays!
~Evan the Censor~
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jorge de la Rosa v ARI, 7/3/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K
There may not be a pitcher with a more agonizingly tantalizing blend of talent and unpredictability (this side of Oliver Perez, at least) than Jorge de la Rosa. When he is dominant, he looks amazing with his fireball fastball and devastating changeup--in fact, only Javier Vazquez has a higher swing-and-miss percentage among all ERA qualifiers this year; a full 26.4% of batter swings whiff right past de la Rosa's pitch.
But when he's bad, he is so bad as to incite fantasy writers to vow that he is forever unusable in mixed leagues and similar raging diatribes. I wrote a few of those myself after de la Rosa's 2.1 IP, 7 ER tee-ball fest against the Rays in June, the only game in an 18-game stretch that the Rockies lost. Now, however, with Friday's start and the two quality wins he picked up in his previous starts, he's back to looking like a real fantasy pitcher again, and his numbers demand that you give him consideration.
I can guarantee that he's the best source of strikeouts you'll find on your league's wire--his 9.37 K/9 is seventh in the majors--and for that reason alone, he may be worth a spec pickup. But there are plenty of statistical reasons to think that you still have an opportunity to pick up a highly-skilled player for cheap: his BABIP of .329 has plenty of room to regress to the downside, which will bring down his 1.44 WHIP considerably (though walks will likely continue to be a problem) and his strand rate of 65.6% is the fourth lowest among ERA qualifiers. There are some luck elements to that stat as well, and if that regresses, we'll see a significant decrease in de la Rosa's ERA--which, at 5.14 currently, probably looks too ugly to pick up.
But looking at the underlying stats, you can know better than that. With an FIP (predictive ERA) of 3.81, his skill set is too good and his ceiling of dominance too high to let him languish on any waiver wire. He can be benched in questionable matchups (don't let Coors scare you though, home runs are not his hangup) but can always be counted on to stack up strikeouts. If only the control could be improved, and some of the luck factors could regress, we'd be looking at de la Rosa as much more of the fantasy stalwart that he teases sometimes, rather than the waiver wire sniper start that all your leaguemates currently are treating him as.
Remember--if you'd like the Censor to cover any specific starting pitcher, I'm happy to do so. Just fire an e-mail off to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy holidays!
~Evan the Censor~
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