The Starting Line: Clayton Kershaw - 5/28/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Clayton Kershaw @ COL, 5/27/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K
I have made the argument many times that of all the hot young pitchers in the majors right now, I'm not sure there's anyone with the upside of Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, only two months removed from legal drinking age. That's not easy to see, though, if you focus on aggregate season numbers. Kershaw's boasting a pretty pedestrian 4.34 ERA, a 3-3 record in 10 starts, and a mediocre 1.29 WHIP. His K/9 is a strong 8.84, but it comes with an ugly 5.14 BB/9. His efficiency is terrible--the Kazmir-esque 4.3 pitches per batter faced is the main reason he hasn't seen the eighth inning of a game yet. Doesn't sound like a pitcher you'd want much to do with this year, right?
Kershaw is the poster child for why I believe in short-term moving averages for my analysis. The kid posted an incredible start against the Giants, striking out 13 in seven innings with only one walk--then followed that up with two road bombs at Colorado and Houston, posting a massive 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. And everyone who was so excited about his potential was ready to run for the hills.
Kershaw completed his May on Wednesday with a return to the scene of the last crime and looked comparatively better--not great, but a backdoor quality start. It capped off a run of six May starts, though, that paint quite a different picture than the aggregate season numbers. In May, Kershaw posted a 2.57 ERA, with a particularly solid 1.06 home ERA. This is the sign of a pitcher that is settling down and finding some consistency.
I love the mix of pitches that Kershaw throws--his wicked heat is complemented by a deadly curveball, and a changeup that takes a full 11 mph off his fastball (which I'd like to see him throw more). Despite his control issues--as always, a common problem with rookie pitchers--Kershaw keeps the ball in the ballpark and has not truly blown up for more than a month. His hit rate (BABIP) is a bit low and due for some upward regression, but the WHIP damage there will be offset if he can just gain some control, and very few young pitches don't post significant control improvement after they cross 150-200 IP in the majors.
Despite how unsexy Kershaw may be to many after his back-to-back blowups and lack of a real dominant performance since then, the consistency is all you need to see from a pitcher with his talent at this point in his career. Keeper league owners should know that this is the Johan Santana of the next generation, the SP you'll want to have on your roster for the entire 2010's. Even non-keeper owners should look out for owners who have lost their interest in Kershaw and see if you can snatch him up in a trade--the second half of the season could pay major dividends.
I know everyone's in love with Cueto, Scherzer, and various others--but when Clayton Kershaw is being taken in the first round of drafts in 2014, just remember who tipped you off first.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Clayton Kershaw @ COL, 5/27/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K
I have made the argument many times that of all the hot young pitchers in the majors right now, I'm not sure there's anyone with the upside of Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, only two months removed from legal drinking age. That's not easy to see, though, if you focus on aggregate season numbers. Kershaw's boasting a pretty pedestrian 4.34 ERA, a 3-3 record in 10 starts, and a mediocre 1.29 WHIP. His K/9 is a strong 8.84, but it comes with an ugly 5.14 BB/9. His efficiency is terrible--the Kazmir-esque 4.3 pitches per batter faced is the main reason he hasn't seen the eighth inning of a game yet. Doesn't sound like a pitcher you'd want much to do with this year, right?
Kershaw is the poster child for why I believe in short-term moving averages for my analysis. The kid posted an incredible start against the Giants, striking out 13 in seven innings with only one walk--then followed that up with two road bombs at Colorado and Houston, posting a massive 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. And everyone who was so excited about his potential was ready to run for the hills.
Kershaw completed his May on Wednesday with a return to the scene of the last crime and looked comparatively better--not great, but a backdoor quality start. It capped off a run of six May starts, though, that paint quite a different picture than the aggregate season numbers. In May, Kershaw posted a 2.57 ERA, with a particularly solid 1.06 home ERA. This is the sign of a pitcher that is settling down and finding some consistency.
I love the mix of pitches that Kershaw throws--his wicked heat is complemented by a deadly curveball, and a changeup that takes a full 11 mph off his fastball (which I'd like to see him throw more). Despite his control issues--as always, a common problem with rookie pitchers--Kershaw keeps the ball in the ballpark and has not truly blown up for more than a month. His hit rate (BABIP) is a bit low and due for some upward regression, but the WHIP damage there will be offset if he can just gain some control, and very few young pitches don't post significant control improvement after they cross 150-200 IP in the majors.
Despite how unsexy Kershaw may be to many after his back-to-back blowups and lack of a real dominant performance since then, the consistency is all you need to see from a pitcher with his talent at this point in his career. Keeper league owners should know that this is the Johan Santana of the next generation, the SP you'll want to have on your roster for the entire 2010's. Even non-keeper owners should look out for owners who have lost their interest in Kershaw and see if you can snatch him up in a trade--the second half of the season could pay major dividends.
I know everyone's in love with Cueto, Scherzer, and various others--but when Clayton Kershaw is being taken in the first round of drafts in 2014, just remember who tipped you off first.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Clayton Kershaw
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