The Starting Line: Jake Peavy - 5/1/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jake Peavy @ LAD, 5/1/2009
ND, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K
There were a multitude of factors that led to Jake Peavy dropping from an early second rounder in 2008 to, in some cases, the sixth round and the 7th or 8th SP taken overall this year. There's no concern about his raw skills--his overall ERA and his K/9 leave no room for concern. But Peavy was the ultimate example of a great pitcher on a terrible team, and it's hard to look at his 2.85 ERA without seeing his 10-11 2008 record. Wins are an important statistic, and beside that Peavy's home-road ERA splits were growing more and more extreme in 2008.
Prior to Friday's start at the Dodgers, Peavy did not look sharp through his first five starts, giving up at least 3 ER in each start and running up high pitch counts and abnormally high BB/9 stats for him. He promised there was no health problems and that he would be on top of his game for the Friday start at Los Angeles--and boy, was he ever. Locked into a duel with lefty phenom Clayton Kershaw Peavy looked every bit the Cy Young contender, pitching 8 innings of fanastic, efficient baseball and throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes.
And what did he have to show for it? An offense that floundered all night against Kershaw, leaving five runners in scoring position with two outs and putting a gigantic doughnut hole on the board--and then a quick relief meltdown by Duaner Sanchez and a 1-0 Padres loss. If you waited all month for Peavy to break out, you saw what he can do in a big way on Friday night, but this is the reality of his season--probably another 200 K, and an ERA that should find its way back to the 3.20 area, but likely no more than 11 or 12 wins--surely not what you hope for from the first SP you drafted. If only his team could support him more--or a trade to a contender in a good pitcher's park would pop up--his starts wouldn't be this bittersweet. And if you did pass on him in the 4th or 5th round, the net result of the season's first four weeks should offer some validation.
Other notes from Friday: Don't let Mike Pelfrey's 3-0 record fool you--he still is laboring and should probably be benched (not cut) for a couple starts...Make sure that Zach Duke is not on the wire in your league; a 2.21 ERA through six starts can't be ignored any longer...Nothing made me happier than seeing Randy Johnson rain dominance all over the Rockies--forget 300 wins, the way he's pitching he may want to take a run at Cy Young's 511...why did the Rangers call up Derek Holland to shove him into middle relief? Despite taking the L, Holland will be a worthwhile starter once he is locked into the starting rotation, keep an eye out.
Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jake Peavy @ LAD, 5/1/2009
ND, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K
There were a multitude of factors that led to Jake Peavy dropping from an early second rounder in 2008 to, in some cases, the sixth round and the 7th or 8th SP taken overall this year. There's no concern about his raw skills--his overall ERA and his K/9 leave no room for concern. But Peavy was the ultimate example of a great pitcher on a terrible team, and it's hard to look at his 2.85 ERA without seeing his 10-11 2008 record. Wins are an important statistic, and beside that Peavy's home-road ERA splits were growing more and more extreme in 2008.
Prior to Friday's start at the Dodgers, Peavy did not look sharp through his first five starts, giving up at least 3 ER in each start and running up high pitch counts and abnormally high BB/9 stats for him. He promised there was no health problems and that he would be on top of his game for the Friday start at Los Angeles--and boy, was he ever. Locked into a duel with lefty phenom Clayton Kershaw Peavy looked every bit the Cy Young contender, pitching 8 innings of fanastic, efficient baseball and throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes.
And what did he have to show for it? An offense that floundered all night against Kershaw, leaving five runners in scoring position with two outs and putting a gigantic doughnut hole on the board--and then a quick relief meltdown by Duaner Sanchez and a 1-0 Padres loss. If you waited all month for Peavy to break out, you saw what he can do in a big way on Friday night, but this is the reality of his season--probably another 200 K, and an ERA that should find its way back to the 3.20 area, but likely no more than 11 or 12 wins--surely not what you hope for from the first SP you drafted. If only his team could support him more--or a trade to a contender in a good pitcher's park would pop up--his starts wouldn't be this bittersweet. And if you did pass on him in the 4th or 5th round, the net result of the season's first four weeks should offer some validation.
Other notes from Friday: Don't let Mike Pelfrey's 3-0 record fool you--he still is laboring and should probably be benched (not cut) for a couple starts...Make sure that Zach Duke is not on the wire in your league; a 2.21 ERA through six starts can't be ignored any longer...Nothing made me happier than seeing Randy Johnson rain dominance all over the Rockies--forget 300 wins, the way he's pitching he may want to take a run at Cy Young's 511...why did the Rangers call up Derek Holland to shove him into middle relief? Despite taking the L, Holland will be a worthwhile starter once he is locked into the starting rotation, keep an eye out.
Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
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