Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 2 - 3/28/09
The Starting Line
Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 2
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
If you joined us for the first part of our BABIP love-fest, hopefully you're on board with the Censor that the BABIP statistic is one of the key luck stats in analyzing starting pitching stats. Now, let's take a look at how it could have been used in 2008 to predict performance, and how it might be useful for 2008.
Five ERA-qualifying SPs posted a BABIP under .275 in 2007. Here's how their 2008 season panned out (2007 BABIP in parenthesis):
Chris R. Young (.252) - Struggled with injuries and saw ERA rise from 3.12 to 3.96 while putting up a career high walk rate of 4.22 and career high WHIP of 1.29.
Brian Bannister (.266) - ERA skyrocketed from 3.87 to 5.76, while WHIP went all the way to 1.49 as Bannister lost 16 games and became a fantasy pariah.
A.J. Burnett (.271) - Although he was able to win 18 games and strike out 231 through sheer force of will and surprising health (did someone say contract year?), his ERA and WHIP rose to five-year highs of 4.07 and 1.34.
Barry Zito (.272) - Scary to think that this turd might have actually been lucky in 2007 (and most of his career before that; he posted a league-low .254 BABIP in his Cy Young year), but the evidence was all there as his ERA shot to a career-high 5.15 and his WHIP blasted to an unholy 1.60. Ladies and gentleman, the real Barry Zito.
Ted Lilly (.272) - Lilly is the one man on this list who did not see much regression, though he did have moderate increases in all his peripherals. Of course, that could have something to do with the fact that his BABIP only rose to .283, so there could be some additional regression yet to come in 2009.
Although some of these five, and others in the top ten such as Rich Hill and Fausto Carmona, posted more serious 2008 declines than others, one thing is for sure: none of these pitchers improved, or even closely duplicated, their 2007 ERA and WHIP. With that in mind, here are some unsustainably low BABIPs from 2008--i.e., pitchers you may want to think twice about:
Dave Bush (.245) - 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Armando Galarraga (.247) - 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka (.267) - 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie (.267) - 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Joe Saunders (.267) - 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gavin Floyd (.268) - 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Be very, very careful when targeting any of these pitchers in 2009 drafts--you can be relatively certain that you will not be able to duplicate 2008 performance.
Tune in soon when the Starting Line returns with the flip side--how to interpret pitchers with unusually high BABIP. Make sure to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta luego!
~Evan the Censor
Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 2
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
If you joined us for the first part of our BABIP love-fest, hopefully you're on board with the Censor that the BABIP statistic is one of the key luck stats in analyzing starting pitching stats. Now, let's take a look at how it could have been used in 2008 to predict performance, and how it might be useful for 2008.
Five ERA-qualifying SPs posted a BABIP under .275 in 2007. Here's how their 2008 season panned out (2007 BABIP in parenthesis):
Chris R. Young (.252) - Struggled with injuries and saw ERA rise from 3.12 to 3.96 while putting up a career high walk rate of 4.22 and career high WHIP of 1.29.
Brian Bannister (.266) - ERA skyrocketed from 3.87 to 5.76, while WHIP went all the way to 1.49 as Bannister lost 16 games and became a fantasy pariah.
A.J. Burnett (.271) - Although he was able to win 18 games and strike out 231 through sheer force of will and surprising health (did someone say contract year?), his ERA and WHIP rose to five-year highs of 4.07 and 1.34.
Barry Zito (.272) - Scary to think that this turd might have actually been lucky in 2007 (and most of his career before that; he posted a league-low .254 BABIP in his Cy Young year), but the evidence was all there as his ERA shot to a career-high 5.15 and his WHIP blasted to an unholy 1.60. Ladies and gentleman, the real Barry Zito.
Ted Lilly (.272) - Lilly is the one man on this list who did not see much regression, though he did have moderate increases in all his peripherals. Of course, that could have something to do with the fact that his BABIP only rose to .283, so there could be some additional regression yet to come in 2009.
Although some of these five, and others in the top ten such as Rich Hill and Fausto Carmona, posted more serious 2008 declines than others, one thing is for sure: none of these pitchers improved, or even closely duplicated, their 2007 ERA and WHIP. With that in mind, here are some unsustainably low BABIPs from 2008--i.e., pitchers you may want to think twice about:
Dave Bush (.245) - 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Armando Galarraga (.247) - 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka (.267) - 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie (.267) - 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Joe Saunders (.267) - 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gavin Floyd (.268) - 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Be very, very careful when targeting any of these pitchers in 2009 drafts--you can be relatively certain that you will not be able to duplicate 2008 performance.
Tune in soon when the Starting Line returns with the flip side--how to interpret pitchers with unusually high BABIP. Make sure to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta luego!
~Evan the Censor
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