SPs Around the Majors - NL Central - 3/7/09

The Starting Line

SPs Around the Majors - NL Central

by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Writing about the NL West last week was both exhausting and exhilirating, with so much talent and fantasy relevance. The six-team NL Central is a far different animal--only one SP from this division will be drafted in the top fifteen starters, and there will be plenty of no-name DNDs. Take my hand and the Censor will lead you through all the fluff and nonsense to find the pitchers who belong on your fantasy team.

Chicago Cubs

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Rich Harden
5. Sean Marshall

The Line: I have this listed according to the current MLB.com depth chart, but it's far different from how I rank them. Although Big Lou, who can't seem to make his mind up about anything, is still undecided about Opening Day, Zambrano is the good money to get the start despite probably being the third-best SP on this team. His strikeouts were declining all year but the 2.84 pre-break ERA can not be ignored. He's only 28 and the upside is still quite high, and he could be a value pick in the 12th round, where he was taken in the FBS expert league. Dempster is the other Opening Day candidate and is severely underrated by fantasy owners who oddly can't wait to forget his amazing 2008 line: 17-6, 2.96 ERA, 8+ K/9 rate. He's a top 20 pitcher in my book but will last later in every draft--he's a total steal after the 11th round. Lilly posts the same gaudy win and strikeout numbers, but also comes with his share of blow-ups due to a much higher flyball rate--he is still a late flier. None of those three match up to Harden who I have proudly put in my top ten because his upside is not 08 Lincecum--it is beyond Lincecum. He is, quite simply, clearly the most talented starting pitcher in the league. His numbers in about 150 IP last year were jaw-dropping: 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.01 K/9. If you pay full value for that, he's going in the second round. Getting him after the 10th round is much more of an injury discount than is reasonable. Now that we've seen the reward, the risk is worth it. The forgotten Marshall won't be forgotten for long; he also has great K numbers and has really won over Piniella in spring training. If these five pitch to their potential, Jeff Samardzija has a long season in front of him as the most talented middle reliever in baseball. This could be the best staff in baseball--tell me again why the Cubs were looking to trade for Peavy?

St. Louis Cardinals

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Todd Wellemeyer
5. Joel Pineiro

The Line: I was surprised to see Wainwright go in the 10th round of our expert league. He certainly looks like an ace often when he takes the mound but his strikeouts took a bit of a dive as he struggled with injury in 2008 and he still hasn't overcome some control issues. I would lay low. When last we saw Carpenter, he spent two seasons as the best pitcher in the NL, and then two seasons as an injury-ravaged mess. Now he's going to be 34, but can be had so late that the upside if he stays healthy is tremendous. Lohse had a nice little contract year bump but his 5.4 K/9 is enough reason to let someone else take the risk; I'd say the same about Wellemeyer, who has better strikeout numbers but also likes to give up home runs. Pineiro isn't fantasy relevant.

Houston Astros

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler

The Line: I have never had Oswalt on a team of mine, and he's rewarded my skepticism by leading the majors in wins over the last eight seasons. But I will continue to bet on red this year, because I can't accept that his small 32-year-old frame can remain healthy and reliable much longer. He can reasonably be drafted as a top 15 SP, though. Rodriguez can run up the strikeouts but he's terribly unreliable and somehow, at the age of 30, has still never thrown 200 healthy IP in a season. Don't draft him before the 21st round as your fifth or sixth starter. Backe and Moehler offer absolutely no fantasy upside and shouldn't be drafted. And yes, you might remember Hampton from such teams as the 1999 Astros and the 2000 Mets, but be not deceived. His career ended a long time ago and no one has bothered to tell him.

Cincinnati Reds

1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Micah Owings

The Line: Wouldn't be a huge surprise to see major reversals from nearly every arm on this staff from 2008 to 2009. Harang was the biggest fantasy bust not named Fausto in 2008, and is not looking any better in spring. He was taken in the 15th round in our expert league, which is too early for the type of value discount that a 6-17, 4.78 ERA pitcher really should see. If you can get him in the 18th round or later, there is nothing but upside. Volquez, on the strength of his K potential and his extraordinary first half last year, will be drafted as a top 20 SP, but do not overlook his 4.27 BB/9, 7th worst in the majors last year. A pitcher like him who throws a changeup 32% of the time having trouble with control could blow up in an ugly way, so be skeptical. Arroyo is a total mystery--his ability to eat innings is good for the wins (15 in 2008) but how happy could you really be with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, his career numbers. It's looking more and more like 2006 was the fluke. Not much doubt about Cueto's upside--we saw it in his first two major league starts: 1-0, 13.1 IP, 3 ER, 18 K, 0 BB, 0.45 WHIP. He's a forgotten sleeper now and can be had for great value in the 20th or 21st and could pay bigger dividends this year than someone like Kershaw or Scherzer. Owings is competing with the terribly disappointing Homer Bailey for the fifth spot--his 1.20 HR/9 does not bode well for the Great American Smallpark and just in the interest of the team finally making a decision on Bailey, Owings probably ends up in a pinch-hit role sooner than later.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Dave Bush
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Manny Parra
5. Braden Looper

The Line: This should be easy. Gallardo's talent is top-notch and if he can be had in the 11th or 12th, you may want to take a chance because there really is Cy Young-caliber talent here, though it's really all speculation at this point. Parra has some talent too and is probably draftable in mixed leagues with his strikeout potential. The only reason to have Bush on your team is if you need an absolute last-round mitigation of WHIP but he's probably not even good enough to be that. Suppan and Looper are not draftable, just boring sniper start options in great matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Zach Duke
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Jeff Karstens

The Line: There used to be so much potential with this staff. Gorzelanny and Duke had their runs of promise but appear to be lost causes now. Don't give up on Snell yet though, his K potential is strong and his .358 BABIP indicates a lot of room for regression back to near-2007 levels--definitely don't draft him, though. This year Maholm is the one coming off a solid season but he's still pretty thin statistically, so don't be upset if someone else drafts him. Karstens is the worst pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff, which really must be depressing for him and his family.

Next week we wrap up our journey around the majors with a stop at the NL East. I promise I'll do my best to not spend the whole column talking about my beloved Mets. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor