2009 Top 20 SP Rankings - 1/21/09
The Starting Line - 2009 SP Rankings 1/21/2009
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Welcome back to the Starting Line everyone--hope the offseason treated you well. Little dalliances like the holidays, fantasy football, and the Yankees vomiting money all over A.J. Burnett to convince him to fill Carl Pavano's now-vacant DL spot are behind us and it's time to start turning your attention to the best time of the year--fantasy baseball draft prep! The Censor's been hard at work with his favorite animal, the SP, putting projections and rankings together to give you an edge over all the unprepared owners in your leagues.
This list is sure to be updated a few times as Opening Day draws near, but here is the first edition of the 2009 Starting Line Preseason Top 20. My projections in parenthesis:
1. Johan Santana (19 W, 220 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
Thoughts: Ignore everyone who tells you he's in decline--all he did in 2008 was post a career low in ERA, a career high in groundball rate (his biggest weakness previously), and pitch well enough to win 22 games if not for the monstrously hideous bullpen behind him. He is still a man among boys and the Censor will be drafting him with the 13th-15th pick in any draft if given the opportunity.
2. Tim Lincecum (17 W, 230 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: It's crazy to think he won't get a bit more of a breather at some point this season than he did last year when Bruce Bochy seemed determine to see his arm fall off. But the 10-11 K/9 rate is a lock and if he keeps mixing his offspeed stuff as well as he did in 2008, he and Santana will have a fantastic Cy Young duel. Whatever you do, don't just assume the innings will equal injury, that's not a responsible strategy. Lincecum is a second-rounder.
3. C.C. Sabathia (17 W, 235 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Thoughts: I'm a bit skeptical in the new uniform, as I always am with a New York signing because you never know how the media and the pressure can break someone down. Sabathia is an easygoing, friendly California boy and the Yankee machine could send him to Randy Johnson-land pretty fast. If he can pitch through that, he is a physical horse and a third-rounder. Don't take him before Lincecum though.
4. Cole Hamels (16 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: This is not a playoff-hero bump; Hamels had pitched his way to this elite level long before the Mets coughed up their playoff berth to the Phillies. What Hamels did in October only proved how impressive his composure and his masterpiece changeup are. How he lost 10 games last year is a mystery; a look at the game logs makes it clear the wins are going up and Hamels will stake his claim to a long career at this fourth-round level.
5. Roy Halladay (18 W, 170 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Thoughts: This one is really tough to predict because though you think of Halladay as dependable and consistent on the field, his fantasy fluctuations over the last three seasons are baffling. I can not believe he's going to strike out 200 again but his WHIP should be solid and he is still an IP machine--which usually means a high win total on a competent team. No reason to fear taking Halladay as your ace in the fourth round.
6. Brandon Webb (17 W, 180 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: There is definitely something to be said for consistency and Webb's last four seasons are remarkable--never less than 226 IP. It's easy to know what you're getting from him and therein lies the appeal, but having said that he's not going to win 22 games again, and his K/9 will be lower and WHIP higher than the four guys ranked above him. If someone in your draft wants him before the late fourth round, don't be too upset.
7. Jake Peavy (12 W, 205 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Thoughts: Peavy has put together the best five-season stretch of any pitcher not named Johan, even with a little blip in 2006, but it is frustrating to not know where he actually might end up calling home. His splits, which were never that alarming before last year, are off the charts now: sub-2 ERA at Petco, plus-4 ERA elsewhere. 0.4 HR/9 at Petco, 1.5 HR/9 on the road. And if he does stay a Padre, he's likely looking at a maximum of 11 wins again with this abysmal team behind him. Still, with his track record and continued strength in K/9 and ERA numbers, you can't discount him much farther than the fifth round or you may end up kicking yourself.
8. Dan Haren (15 W, 202 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Thoughts: If he holds to form, the right strategy might be to draft him in the late fifth round and then flip him in July or August right before he starts to fade. Haren might be a top-five pitcher next year if he can keep it together for an entire season, and you can feel confident that there is little downside risk and still some upside to these projections.
9. Rich Harden (13 W, 190 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: Speaking of upside vs. risk--I had to laugh when Harden somehow fell to be taken (by me) as the 19th overall SP in a recent mock draft. Sounds like a case of reading last year's draft prep manual and not actually looking at his 2008 numbers, which were so completely filthy I don't even want to repeat them. These projections have discounted him down to about two-thirds of a normal season and you know what--that's just fine by me. The reason he's a top ten pitcher is pretty simple: the upside is Lincecum '08 and then some. Take some Pepto Bismol before drafting in the sixth round though and be ready to absorb the laughter of your uninformed leaguemates.
10. Cliff Lee (17 W, 165 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: Is he the next Loaiza? Maybe, but the reasons to believe he's not are a lot stronger than the other side. What I love about Lee the most is that he does not play with fire--the lowest walk rate in the major leagues at 1.37 BB/9, and no statistical evidence that he was lucky (though his HR/9 is probably due for a bit of a rise). I will take a pitcher with that level of control any day. The Indians should be a better team this year and Lee's not going to win another Cy Young, but you can probably get him for value in the late eighth round of your draft--I wouldn't mind taking him before that personally.
11. John Lackey (16 W, 185 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
12. Chad Billingsley (15 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
13. Ervin Santana (16 W, 205 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
14. Roy Oswalt (17 W, 165 K, 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18 W, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
16. Ryan Dempster (16 W, 165 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
17. Francisco Liriano (15 W, 170 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
18. James Shields (15 W, 166 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
19. Jon Lester (15 W, 165 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
20. Scott Kazmir (13 W, 180 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Welcome back to the Starting Line everyone--hope the offseason treated you well. Little dalliances like the holidays, fantasy football, and the Yankees vomiting money all over A.J. Burnett to convince him to fill Carl Pavano's now-vacant DL spot are behind us and it's time to start turning your attention to the best time of the year--fantasy baseball draft prep! The Censor's been hard at work with his favorite animal, the SP, putting projections and rankings together to give you an edge over all the unprepared owners in your leagues.
This list is sure to be updated a few times as Opening Day draws near, but here is the first edition of the 2009 Starting Line Preseason Top 20. My projections in parenthesis:
1. Johan Santana (19 W, 220 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
Thoughts: Ignore everyone who tells you he's in decline--all he did in 2008 was post a career low in ERA, a career high in groundball rate (his biggest weakness previously), and pitch well enough to win 22 games if not for the monstrously hideous bullpen behind him. He is still a man among boys and the Censor will be drafting him with the 13th-15th pick in any draft if given the opportunity.
2. Tim Lincecum (17 W, 230 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: It's crazy to think he won't get a bit more of a breather at some point this season than he did last year when Bruce Bochy seemed determine to see his arm fall off. But the 10-11 K/9 rate is a lock and if he keeps mixing his offspeed stuff as well as he did in 2008, he and Santana will have a fantastic Cy Young duel. Whatever you do, don't just assume the innings will equal injury, that's not a responsible strategy. Lincecum is a second-rounder.
3. C.C. Sabathia (17 W, 235 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Thoughts: I'm a bit skeptical in the new uniform, as I always am with a New York signing because you never know how the media and the pressure can break someone down. Sabathia is an easygoing, friendly California boy and the Yankee machine could send him to Randy Johnson-land pretty fast. If he can pitch through that, he is a physical horse and a third-rounder. Don't take him before Lincecum though.
4. Cole Hamels (16 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: This is not a playoff-hero bump; Hamels had pitched his way to this elite level long before the Mets coughed up their playoff berth to the Phillies. What Hamels did in October only proved how impressive his composure and his masterpiece changeup are. How he lost 10 games last year is a mystery; a look at the game logs makes it clear the wins are going up and Hamels will stake his claim to a long career at this fourth-round level.
5. Roy Halladay (18 W, 170 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Thoughts: This one is really tough to predict because though you think of Halladay as dependable and consistent on the field, his fantasy fluctuations over the last three seasons are baffling. I can not believe he's going to strike out 200 again but his WHIP should be solid and he is still an IP machine--which usually means a high win total on a competent team. No reason to fear taking Halladay as your ace in the fourth round.
6. Brandon Webb (17 W, 180 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: There is definitely something to be said for consistency and Webb's last four seasons are remarkable--never less than 226 IP. It's easy to know what you're getting from him and therein lies the appeal, but having said that he's not going to win 22 games again, and his K/9 will be lower and WHIP higher than the four guys ranked above him. If someone in your draft wants him before the late fourth round, don't be too upset.
7. Jake Peavy (12 W, 205 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Thoughts: Peavy has put together the best five-season stretch of any pitcher not named Johan, even with a little blip in 2006, but it is frustrating to not know where he actually might end up calling home. His splits, which were never that alarming before last year, are off the charts now: sub-2 ERA at Petco, plus-4 ERA elsewhere. 0.4 HR/9 at Petco, 1.5 HR/9 on the road. And if he does stay a Padre, he's likely looking at a maximum of 11 wins again with this abysmal team behind him. Still, with his track record and continued strength in K/9 and ERA numbers, you can't discount him much farther than the fifth round or you may end up kicking yourself.
8. Dan Haren (15 W, 202 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Thoughts: If he holds to form, the right strategy might be to draft him in the late fifth round and then flip him in July or August right before he starts to fade. Haren might be a top-five pitcher next year if he can keep it together for an entire season, and you can feel confident that there is little downside risk and still some upside to these projections.
9. Rich Harden (13 W, 190 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Thoughts: Speaking of upside vs. risk--I had to laugh when Harden somehow fell to be taken (by me) as the 19th overall SP in a recent mock draft. Sounds like a case of reading last year's draft prep manual and not actually looking at his 2008 numbers, which were so completely filthy I don't even want to repeat them. These projections have discounted him down to about two-thirds of a normal season and you know what--that's just fine by me. The reason he's a top ten pitcher is pretty simple: the upside is Lincecum '08 and then some. Take some Pepto Bismol before drafting in the sixth round though and be ready to absorb the laughter of your uninformed leaguemates.
10. Cliff Lee (17 W, 165 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Thoughts: Is he the next Loaiza? Maybe, but the reasons to believe he's not are a lot stronger than the other side. What I love about Lee the most is that he does not play with fire--the lowest walk rate in the major leagues at 1.37 BB/9, and no statistical evidence that he was lucky (though his HR/9 is probably due for a bit of a rise). I will take a pitcher with that level of control any day. The Indians should be a better team this year and Lee's not going to win another Cy Young, but you can probably get him for value in the late eighth round of your draft--I wouldn't mind taking him before that personally.
11. John Lackey (16 W, 185 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
12. Chad Billingsley (15 W, 195 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
13. Ervin Santana (16 W, 205 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
14. Roy Oswalt (17 W, 165 K, 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18 W, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
16. Ryan Dempster (16 W, 165 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
17. Francisco Liriano (15 W, 170 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
18. James Shields (15 W, 166 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
19. Jon Lester (15 W, 165 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
20. Scott Kazmir (13 W, 180 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
Labels: 2009, rankings, starting pitchers
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