Expert League Draft (p)Review - 2/25/09
The Starting Line
Expert League Draft (p)Review
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
So as you're probably aware, the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is going down again in 2009, and our draft is next Tuesday. The Censor has the 11th pick of the draft and I'm feverishly preparing with all my silly little charts, projections, magazines, random number generating spreadsheets, voodoo dolls, etc. At the end of any draft, I judge my draft results on how happy I am with my SP roster--I am an SP nerd, after all--so at the risk of playing the entire draft with my cards face up, my future self has e-mailed me a post-draft article detailing exactly how well the draft went for me. Here's play-by-play from none other than me--seven days from now. Hooray optimism!
Early Aces - The 11th spot proves to be ideal, as the wheel bypasses Johan Santana leaving me to snatch him up with the 14th overall pick in the 2nd round. I excitedly pencil in another 2.90 ERA, 200 K season with 21 wins supported by the striking new Mets bullpen. I focus on offense for a couple rounds--bypassing the itch to draft Cole Hamels in the early 4th--but then when Roy Halladay is still on the board in the late 5th round (59th overall) I decide it's time to stack up more win potential and grab the major-league leading 1.05 WHIP, crossing my fingers for the strikeouts to hold for another year. Thus I've met my goal--drafting two of the top ten SPs on the board at reasonable values.
Mid-Rotation Studs - As the 7th round draws near its end, I can't help but notice that some of the guys I'm not nearly so keen on (Beckett, Oswalt, Kazmir) were being reached for while some of my favorites are being neglected. I sweat out the unpredictable wheel drafter and when the smoke clears, I'm ecstatic to see Chad Billingsley still on the board. As much as I love James Shields, I have to put Billingsley and the incredible K potential a notch above. I felt much more comfortable doing this since Halladay has already solidified my WHIP. Now that my first three spots are locked and loaded, I take a breather and focus on offense for a few more rounds and troll for solid values--I curse just a bit when Kevin Slowey goes in the 12th--until the 13th round is nearing a close and Ryan Dempster, somehow, is still on the board. I quickly check the news wires to make sure he's not dead, and to confirm that yes, he was 17-6 with a sub-3 ERA and an 8+ K/9 rate last year, and so being satisfied that my leaguemates have all lost their mind I snatch him up.
Late Sleepers - Erik Bedard in the early 14th seems like great value but I just can't take my fifth SP this early. Instead I fill up my offense and find an even more value-oriented solution for K's by grabbing Ubaldo Jimenez in the early 18th. Thank goodness all the other owners forgot how much better he got in the late season. Now I try to figure out the best way to draft another Mets pitcher (even us experts have our weak spot), but Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey get snatched up just as I'm preparing to take them, so I settle for the forgotten John Maine--just two years removed from an All-Star caliber first half--in the early 22nd.
Endgame Dice Rolling - Or actually not, since I generally try to avoid the hot young prospects with too much downside (yes, I drafted Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes in 2006), so I pass on the opportunity to grab the appealing Manny Parra and take the rock-solid Mark Buehrle, one of my favorites in all of baseball, to fill up my seventh and final SP spot. Bonus: I can watch one of his entire outings in about 30 minutes with the help of my trusty DVR.
The Results:
Johan Santana (2nd round)
Roy Halladay (5th)
Chad Billingsley (8th)
Ryan Dempster (13th)
Ubaldo Jimenez (18th)
John Maine (22nd)
Mark Buehrle (25th)
Can't complain about how that worked out--I've got all four SP stats covered with room to spare. Here's a rotation I'm ready to go to war with.
Now, let's hope that the draft actually plays out this way. Based on the results of other recent expert drafts, I think every one of these picks is very reasonable--but only if none of my fellow owners hear about this post. So shhhhhh! Let's keep this between us until then. I'll definitely be back after the draft with a recap of how my SP draft went, but until then feel free to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor
Expert League Draft (p)Review
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
So as you're probably aware, the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is going down again in 2009, and our draft is next Tuesday. The Censor has the 11th pick of the draft and I'm feverishly preparing with all my silly little charts, projections, magazines, random number generating spreadsheets, voodoo dolls, etc. At the end of any draft, I judge my draft results on how happy I am with my SP roster--I am an SP nerd, after all--so at the risk of playing the entire draft with my cards face up, my future self has e-mailed me a post-draft article detailing exactly how well the draft went for me. Here's play-by-play from none other than me--seven days from now. Hooray optimism!
Early Aces - The 11th spot proves to be ideal, as the wheel bypasses Johan Santana leaving me to snatch him up with the 14th overall pick in the 2nd round. I excitedly pencil in another 2.90 ERA, 200 K season with 21 wins supported by the striking new Mets bullpen. I focus on offense for a couple rounds--bypassing the itch to draft Cole Hamels in the early 4th--but then when Roy Halladay is still on the board in the late 5th round (59th overall) I decide it's time to stack up more win potential and grab the major-league leading 1.05 WHIP, crossing my fingers for the strikeouts to hold for another year. Thus I've met my goal--drafting two of the top ten SPs on the board at reasonable values.
Mid-Rotation Studs - As the 7th round draws near its end, I can't help but notice that some of the guys I'm not nearly so keen on (Beckett, Oswalt, Kazmir) were being reached for while some of my favorites are being neglected. I sweat out the unpredictable wheel drafter and when the smoke clears, I'm ecstatic to see Chad Billingsley still on the board. As much as I love James Shields, I have to put Billingsley and the incredible K potential a notch above. I felt much more comfortable doing this since Halladay has already solidified my WHIP. Now that my first three spots are locked and loaded, I take a breather and focus on offense for a few more rounds and troll for solid values--I curse just a bit when Kevin Slowey goes in the 12th--until the 13th round is nearing a close and Ryan Dempster, somehow, is still on the board. I quickly check the news wires to make sure he's not dead, and to confirm that yes, he was 17-6 with a sub-3 ERA and an 8+ K/9 rate last year, and so being satisfied that my leaguemates have all lost their mind I snatch him up.
Late Sleepers - Erik Bedard in the early 14th seems like great value but I just can't take my fifth SP this early. Instead I fill up my offense and find an even more value-oriented solution for K's by grabbing Ubaldo Jimenez in the early 18th. Thank goodness all the other owners forgot how much better he got in the late season. Now I try to figure out the best way to draft another Mets pitcher (even us experts have our weak spot), but Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey get snatched up just as I'm preparing to take them, so I settle for the forgotten John Maine--just two years removed from an All-Star caliber first half--in the early 22nd.
Endgame Dice Rolling - Or actually not, since I generally try to avoid the hot young prospects with too much downside (yes, I drafted Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes in 2006), so I pass on the opportunity to grab the appealing Manny Parra and take the rock-solid Mark Buehrle, one of my favorites in all of baseball, to fill up my seventh and final SP spot. Bonus: I can watch one of his entire outings in about 30 minutes with the help of my trusty DVR.
The Results:
Johan Santana (2nd round)
Roy Halladay (5th)
Chad Billingsley (8th)
Ryan Dempster (13th)
Ubaldo Jimenez (18th)
John Maine (22nd)
Mark Buehrle (25th)
Can't complain about how that worked out--I've got all four SP stats covered with room to spare. Here's a rotation I'm ready to go to war with.
Now, let's hope that the draft actually plays out this way. Based on the results of other recent expert drafts, I think every one of these picks is very reasonable--but only if none of my fellow owners hear about this post. So shhhhhh! Let's keep this between us until then. I'll definitely be back after the draft with a recap of how my SP draft went, but until then feel free to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor
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