SPs Around the Majors - AL Central - 2/14/09
The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL Central
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Hope you were able to cleanse yourself from the stench of the Texas Rangers rotation after last week's column. We're getting into some much stronger, and potentially more intriguing, situations this week as we take a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up in the AL Central.
Minnesota Twins
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Scott Baker
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins
The line: No intrigue here--this may be the most stable rotation in the majors right now. Liriano might be a top five starter as early as next year but you'll have to swallow down a big lump in your throat to draft him as a Top 20 SP. I'll feel better once I see how he's using the slider. I've made no secret that Slowey is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors, with a K/BB rate that is just dreamy, and a surprising K/9 rate for such a "thinking man's pitcher." I will be looking for him in the 15th or 16th round of every league this year. Baker, who himself is progressing toward fantasy ace status, could go a round later and may even surpass Slowey by the end of the season. Blackburn, like Baker and Slowey, never walks anyone, but his strikeouts are few and far between, so he's more of a sniper start candidate in good matchups. Perkins doesn't have the skills to match his surprising 12-4 record and isn't much of a fantasy option. You could certainly do worse for a fifth starter in real baseball, though--just ask one of the AL West teams.
Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buehrle
2. John Danks
3. Gavin Floyd
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Clayton Richard
The line: I am an unapologetic fan of Buerhle's consistency and would love to have him at the back of my fantasy rotation--the man who threw a no-hitter without hitting 90 on the radar gun is coming off a September where he gave up a total of 10 ER for the entire month. Expect another 15 wins with a 3.75 ERA. I also love everything about Danks and will be ecstatic to get him as my third starter; he is a future ace. At the risk of my friend Todd Farino canceling my column, tread very lightly around Floyd who won't escape his alarmingly low BABIP and his unacceptable walk rate much longer. Prepare for a lot of "I told you so"s from me on Gavin Floyd in 2009. Colon is only worthwhile to me if I get to watch him take ABs in interleague play again--that's better than any episode of 30 Rock. Richard is the clear frontrunner for the fifth spot; he's a solid young groundball pitcher who will likely have success--but do not forget the name Aaron Poreda; he is a dynamite prospect with great stuff and when (not if) Colon gets hurt, he could have a chance to shine in the majors.
Cleveland Indians
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Aaron Laffey
4. Jeremy Sowers
5. Anthony Reyes
The Line: What can you say about Lee that the staggering fantasy line doesn't tell you already? He was simply spectacular in 2008. There's nothing an SP dork like me loves more than control and Lee is the epitome--only 34 walks in 31 starts over the entire season. I don't expect 22 wins, and I don't expect a 2.54 ERA, and I don't expect 0.5 HR/9 again, but even if I apply a healthy discount to last year, Cliff Lee is still a Top 10 SP for 2009. I was high on Carmona last year and have the scars to prove it, but reports say that he looks good in Winter League and he might still be around in the late rounds--he's only a year removed from a dominating 3.06 ERA and is at least worth a spec play as an injury sleeper. Laffey, Sowers, and Reyes are all low-K deep AL-only options--though Reyes did have a solid August before being shut down. If all holds true to expectations, expect the Indians staff to be last in the AL in strikeouts.
Detroit Tigers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Armando Galarraga
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Zach Miner
The line: Verlander was a confounding disappointment last year. He still will probably not fall out of the 10th round because of his staggering potential, but at least he is playing for a big contract now and hopefully has enough experience to pitch with increased stability. I won't be drafting him. Galarraga, sure to be the most mis-spelled name by fantasy pundits in 2009, just turned 27 and can probably attribute most of his 2008 success to good fortune, since K ratios don't explain it. Do not expect a repeat. Bonderman will leave owners pleading for a return to 2006 form but his strikeouts disappeared last year in the 71 IP that he was able to stay healthy for and who knows if he can stay healthy this time. DND. Jackson actually looked great in Tampa before a terrible September breakdown--he is a spec play, but with a lower WHIP could be a rewarding one. The fifth spot is still up in the air between Miner, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Willis seems to be a better fit as a lefty reliever at this point, and Robertson and his mammoth 6.35 ERA is a lost cause, so Miner gets the fifth spot by default.
Kansas City Royals
1. Zach Greinke
2. Gil Meche
3. Brian Bannister
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Kyle Davies
The Line: Greinke is now a major league ace and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace as well. All you need to know about the 25-year-old is that his best month last month was September--3-1, 8 ER in 26 IP, 5 BB, 28 K. He is only getting better and even at his projected draft value of round 10-11, he could be a sick value. Don't worry too much about the wins on a weak KC team either, he's talented enough to earn 15 wins on his own. Meche, under the radar, has become fantasy relevant again--a 3.09 ERA over the last two-thirds of the season is something to be proud of. With very strong K ratios, he's a worthy fifth starter in your fantasy rotation. Bannister's cliff-dive after a strong April was one of the more depressing sights in fantasy and he's got nothing to offer any fantasy rotation until he proves he's back to 2007 form. Hochevar is at least a year or two away from fantasy relevance. Don't draft Davies, but keep an eye on him; he had a fantastic September and has enough talent that a mid-season resurgence wouldn't be that surprising. He's still only 25 years old.
Thanks for reading--the AL East descends upon us next week. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy Valentine's Day!
~Evan the Censor
SPs Around the Majors - AL Central
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Hope you were able to cleanse yourself from the stench of the Texas Rangers rotation after last week's column. We're getting into some much stronger, and potentially more intriguing, situations this week as we take a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up in the AL Central.
Minnesota Twins
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Scott Baker
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins
The line: No intrigue here--this may be the most stable rotation in the majors right now. Liriano might be a top five starter as early as next year but you'll have to swallow down a big lump in your throat to draft him as a Top 20 SP. I'll feel better once I see how he's using the slider. I've made no secret that Slowey is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors, with a K/BB rate that is just dreamy, and a surprising K/9 rate for such a "thinking man's pitcher." I will be looking for him in the 15th or 16th round of every league this year. Baker, who himself is progressing toward fantasy ace status, could go a round later and may even surpass Slowey by the end of the season. Blackburn, like Baker and Slowey, never walks anyone, but his strikeouts are few and far between, so he's more of a sniper start candidate in good matchups. Perkins doesn't have the skills to match his surprising 12-4 record and isn't much of a fantasy option. You could certainly do worse for a fifth starter in real baseball, though--just ask one of the AL West teams.
Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buehrle
2. John Danks
3. Gavin Floyd
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Clayton Richard
The line: I am an unapologetic fan of Buerhle's consistency and would love to have him at the back of my fantasy rotation--the man who threw a no-hitter without hitting 90 on the radar gun is coming off a September where he gave up a total of 10 ER for the entire month. Expect another 15 wins with a 3.75 ERA. I also love everything about Danks and will be ecstatic to get him as my third starter; he is a future ace. At the risk of my friend Todd Farino canceling my column, tread very lightly around Floyd who won't escape his alarmingly low BABIP and his unacceptable walk rate much longer. Prepare for a lot of "I told you so"s from me on Gavin Floyd in 2009. Colon is only worthwhile to me if I get to watch him take ABs in interleague play again--that's better than any episode of 30 Rock. Richard is the clear frontrunner for the fifth spot; he's a solid young groundball pitcher who will likely have success--but do not forget the name Aaron Poreda; he is a dynamite prospect with great stuff and when (not if) Colon gets hurt, he could have a chance to shine in the majors.
Cleveland Indians
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Aaron Laffey
4. Jeremy Sowers
5. Anthony Reyes
The Line: What can you say about Lee that the staggering fantasy line doesn't tell you already? He was simply spectacular in 2008. There's nothing an SP dork like me loves more than control and Lee is the epitome--only 34 walks in 31 starts over the entire season. I don't expect 22 wins, and I don't expect a 2.54 ERA, and I don't expect 0.5 HR/9 again, but even if I apply a healthy discount to last year, Cliff Lee is still a Top 10 SP for 2009. I was high on Carmona last year and have the scars to prove it, but reports say that he looks good in Winter League and he might still be around in the late rounds--he's only a year removed from a dominating 3.06 ERA and is at least worth a spec play as an injury sleeper. Laffey, Sowers, and Reyes are all low-K deep AL-only options--though Reyes did have a solid August before being shut down. If all holds true to expectations, expect the Indians staff to be last in the AL in strikeouts.
Detroit Tigers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Armando Galarraga
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Zach Miner
The line: Verlander was a confounding disappointment last year. He still will probably not fall out of the 10th round because of his staggering potential, but at least he is playing for a big contract now and hopefully has enough experience to pitch with increased stability. I won't be drafting him. Galarraga, sure to be the most mis-spelled name by fantasy pundits in 2009, just turned 27 and can probably attribute most of his 2008 success to good fortune, since K ratios don't explain it. Do not expect a repeat. Bonderman will leave owners pleading for a return to 2006 form but his strikeouts disappeared last year in the 71 IP that he was able to stay healthy for and who knows if he can stay healthy this time. DND. Jackson actually looked great in Tampa before a terrible September breakdown--he is a spec play, but with a lower WHIP could be a rewarding one. The fifth spot is still up in the air between Miner, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Willis seems to be a better fit as a lefty reliever at this point, and Robertson and his mammoth 6.35 ERA is a lost cause, so Miner gets the fifth spot by default.
Kansas City Royals
1. Zach Greinke
2. Gil Meche
3. Brian Bannister
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Kyle Davies
The Line: Greinke is now a major league ace and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace as well. All you need to know about the 25-year-old is that his best month last month was September--3-1, 8 ER in 26 IP, 5 BB, 28 K. He is only getting better and even at his projected draft value of round 10-11, he could be a sick value. Don't worry too much about the wins on a weak KC team either, he's talented enough to earn 15 wins on his own. Meche, under the radar, has become fantasy relevant again--a 3.09 ERA over the last two-thirds of the season is something to be proud of. With very strong K ratios, he's a worthy fifth starter in your fantasy rotation. Bannister's cliff-dive after a strong April was one of the more depressing sights in fantasy and he's got nothing to offer any fantasy rotation until he proves he's back to 2007 form. Hochevar is at least a year or two away from fantasy relevance. Don't draft Davies, but keep an eye on him; he had a fantastic September and has enough talent that a mid-season resurgence wouldn't be that surprising. He's still only 25 years old.
Thanks for reading--the AL East descends upon us next week. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy Valentine's Day!
~Evan the Censor
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