SPs Around the Majors - AL West - 2/7/09
SPs AROUND THE MAJORS - AL WEST
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The Censor's about to go hopping around the majors taking a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up for 2009, and offering some guidance on how you should be looking at these SPs from a fantasy perspective. We'll get started with the American League West--an easy place to start since it boasts some of the worst rotations in recent baseball memory. Hooray for fantasy irrelevance!
Los Angeles Angels
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley
The line: Lackey and Big Erv are both in my top fifteen preseason SPs and are both 6th-7th round picks. No one should be surprised if either puts up a major Cy Young campaign in 2009. Saunders is not better than a fourth fantasy starter with his terrible K/9 and K/BB rates and second-half decline, so don't be the guy who reaches for his luck-inflated win total. Weaver's value is very depressed after his disappointing 2008, but his 7.8 K/9 could point to a rebound and he could be a value in the 14th or 15th round. Moseley is not fantasy-relevant, and don't be surprised if he loses his spot to youngster Anthony Ortega--who would still just be an AL-only spec play until he shows he can strike major league hitters out.
Seattle Mariners
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Brandon Morrow
4. Carlos Silva
5. Jarrod Washburn
The line: King Felix is going to be the stud he always was expected to be...one of these years. I would rather wait and see for now and do not have him in my preseason Top 20. Remember he is, amazingly enough, still only 22. Bedard is healthy going into spring training and could be an incredible value pick in middle rounds--and is in a contract year. Morrow is staying in the rotation unless his arm does not hold up and is a legit sleeper with his ill stuff. No matter how bad the bullpen situation gets, the Mariners have committed to giving him a chance in the rotation and I expect him to seize it. Silva and Washburn are both hideously overpaid and pretty bad fantasy pitchers and either could be replaced by the superior youngster Ryan Rowland-Smith if they're bad enough--though offseason reports are that Silva has lost some weight and has been working hard to shed the "Barry Zito of the AL" label.
Oakland Athletics
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Sean Gallagher
3. Dana Eveland
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Dallas Braden
The Line: Move along, nothing to see here. Duchscherer is a major injury risk who was the luckiest SP in baseball before his season ended abruptly in August and you don't want to be the one taking him in the 16th round. Gallagher and Braden have some potential but are still not mixed-league options. Eveland has serious WHIP problems to get under control before he's relevant. The one pitcher worth talking about is Gonzalez who is a strikeout machine and is definitely going to start despite chatter about a bullpen assignment. Keep an eye on him as a deep sleeper, though he's not draftable in standard mixed leagues.
Texas Rangers
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Matt Harrison
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Scott Feldman
The Line: Every team has a young guy who they're hoping to get into the rotation for an extended time period, see what kind of potential they have. Unfortunately, Texas has a guy like that in each of its bottom three rotation spots in what may be the worst fantasy SP rotation ever. And it's really a shame--with the deluge of run support any Rangers pitcher is sure to get, you'd like to think there's at least one draftable guy. Millwood is too old and unhealthy, Padilla is too wildly inconsistent, and Harrison and McCarthy are quite honestly not going to amount to anything (yes, I have totally given up on McCarthy). Feldman led the team in quality starts with 13, but that's not a fantasy stat, and his 5.29 ERA is. Jason Jennings is back on a minors deal but too long a shot to get back to the majors. And that, my readers, is probably the last time that a Texas Rangers SP should cross your mind this year. Try hard not to remember that this team has traded both Edison Volquez and John Danks away in the last two years.
It will only get better from here. Tune in next week as we hit the AL Central! Direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor~
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The Censor's about to go hopping around the majors taking a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up for 2009, and offering some guidance on how you should be looking at these SPs from a fantasy perspective. We'll get started with the American League West--an easy place to start since it boasts some of the worst rotations in recent baseball memory. Hooray for fantasy irrelevance!
Los Angeles Angels
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley
The line: Lackey and Big Erv are both in my top fifteen preseason SPs and are both 6th-7th round picks. No one should be surprised if either puts up a major Cy Young campaign in 2009. Saunders is not better than a fourth fantasy starter with his terrible K/9 and K/BB rates and second-half decline, so don't be the guy who reaches for his luck-inflated win total. Weaver's value is very depressed after his disappointing 2008, but his 7.8 K/9 could point to a rebound and he could be a value in the 14th or 15th round. Moseley is not fantasy-relevant, and don't be surprised if he loses his spot to youngster Anthony Ortega--who would still just be an AL-only spec play until he shows he can strike major league hitters out.
Seattle Mariners
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Brandon Morrow
4. Carlos Silva
5. Jarrod Washburn
The line: King Felix is going to be the stud he always was expected to be...one of these years. I would rather wait and see for now and do not have him in my preseason Top 20. Remember he is, amazingly enough, still only 22. Bedard is healthy going into spring training and could be an incredible value pick in middle rounds--and is in a contract year. Morrow is staying in the rotation unless his arm does not hold up and is a legit sleeper with his ill stuff. No matter how bad the bullpen situation gets, the Mariners have committed to giving him a chance in the rotation and I expect him to seize it. Silva and Washburn are both hideously overpaid and pretty bad fantasy pitchers and either could be replaced by the superior youngster Ryan Rowland-Smith if they're bad enough--though offseason reports are that Silva has lost some weight and has been working hard to shed the "Barry Zito of the AL" label.
Oakland Athletics
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Sean Gallagher
3. Dana Eveland
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Dallas Braden
The Line: Move along, nothing to see here. Duchscherer is a major injury risk who was the luckiest SP in baseball before his season ended abruptly in August and you don't want to be the one taking him in the 16th round. Gallagher and Braden have some potential but are still not mixed-league options. Eveland has serious WHIP problems to get under control before he's relevant. The one pitcher worth talking about is Gonzalez who is a strikeout machine and is definitely going to start despite chatter about a bullpen assignment. Keep an eye on him as a deep sleeper, though he's not draftable in standard mixed leagues.
Texas Rangers
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Matt Harrison
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Scott Feldman
The Line: Every team has a young guy who they're hoping to get into the rotation for an extended time period, see what kind of potential they have. Unfortunately, Texas has a guy like that in each of its bottom three rotation spots in what may be the worst fantasy SP rotation ever. And it's really a shame--with the deluge of run support any Rangers pitcher is sure to get, you'd like to think there's at least one draftable guy. Millwood is too old and unhealthy, Padilla is too wildly inconsistent, and Harrison and McCarthy are quite honestly not going to amount to anything (yes, I have totally given up on McCarthy). Feldman led the team in quality starts with 13, but that's not a fantasy stat, and his 5.29 ERA is. Jason Jennings is back on a minors deal but too long a shot to get back to the majors. And that, my readers, is probably the last time that a Texas Rangers SP should cross your mind this year. Try hard not to remember that this team has traded both Edison Volquez and John Danks away in the last two years.
It will only get better from here. Tune in next week as we hit the AL Central! Direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor~
Labels: 2009, AL West, fantasy baseball, starting pitchers
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