SPs Around the Majors - AL East - 2/21/09
The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Now here's a division that SP dorks can get excited about. The AL East features some of the major league's best aces, some of the most exciting young pitchers, and some of the most controversial fantasy SPs. Oh yeah, and a few guys who pitch for Baltimore.
Tampa Bay Rays
1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price
The line: The switch at the top of the depth chart for the Rays is both a testament to the growing frustration with Kazmir's inability to either stay healthy or throw fewer than 4.2 pitches per batter, and the slow realization that Shields is the absolute real deal. The new Rays ace, one of my personal favorite SPs in baseball, has an incredible changeup that he uses brilliantly, and keeps his strikeout numbers reasonably high while providing solid support in the WHIP area (the forgotten fantasy category). He is going to win a Cy Young someday. Kazmir is still top 20 in my 2009 rankings, based on the fact that he led the major leagues in strikeouts just two years ago and still posted a 3.49 ERA with his uneven 2008 season, but if he goes through another season without pitching in the seventh inning he will be dropping further down the depth chart quickly. Look for Garza to be overrated by playoff-starry owners who don't realize his K/9 rate was only 6.3 and are sure this is the year he becomes an ace. He's solid, but not at the level some think. Sonnanstine, like Shields, has incredibly low walk numbers (only 1.7 BB/9) but makes up for it with a nice scattering of base hits. With limited strikeout upside, he's still on the level of a mixed league sniper start. And of course, the controversial wild card Price--let's get one thing out of the way: I don't think there's a chance in the world he doesn't open the season in the rotation. That being the case, he could provide the same numbers as Kazmir with high strikeouts and low IP counts (and therefore limited wins) but as with any young first-year phenom be wary of two things: injury risk, and early shutdown risk. Discount his value accordingly. I would not draft him higher than my #4 SP in a mixed league.
Boston Red Sox
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
The line: I, unlike almost every other pundit, do not recommend Beckett as a fantasy ace, and in fact do not have him in my Top 20. His K and BB numbers sure looked good, but he was subject to frequent disaster starts, and I need to see more consistency before I fully buy back in. Lester, on the other hand, found his way into the bottom of my Top 20 with remarkable composure and consistency all year. His relatively low strikeouts are all that's keeping him from true ace level. Dice-K is a truly confounding pitcher. Observe the pristine 2.90 ERA and the incredible 18-3 record--and stop and think that he actually averaged a win, that most valuable of fantasy stats, every 9.3 innings he pitched. That is borderline mystical for a pitcher who walks batters at a Kazmir-esque level, running up embarrassing 5.0 BB/9 and 1.6 K/BB ratios, and can't get deep into games as a result. But he's a lock for wins, strikeouts, and at worst an above-average ERA, and is my favorite Red Sox SP for fantasy players. Wakefield is just an innings-eater with some win potential and no real mixed league fantasy relevance. Penny appears ready for Opening Day but is DND until we see what he's capable of. Did anyone else not realize he's only 30 years old? The better option is to draft John Smoltz very late and wait for his June return, when he will take a rotation spot. All this equals a logjam for poor Clay Buchholz who doesn't appear to have a clear path to much major league time this year.
New York Yankees
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Chien-Mein Wang
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite
The line: The Yankee hater in me is trying to find reasons why this team and its mega-spending will fail this year. It's pretty hard with Sabathia who showed an incredible ability to put a team on his back in crunch time. Is it really that difficult to forsee that wear and tear having an effect into this season though? And will the big laid-back California kid be able to deal with the New York media that chewed up and spit out Randy Johnson? Still, it's tough to rank him any lower than third overall, as I have him. I think Burnett is a much shakier signing considering his injury history--there are few as impressive when he's healthy, but that has never been a guarantee. I can promise that he won't finish in the top three in pitches thrown in 2009, as he did last year, now that he's got the contract. There's a reason Wang slips so late in every round--his strikeouts don't exist and he's very shaky on the road, plus he's coming off a serious injury. Chamberlain is the most controversial fantasy pitcher for the second straight year. He will be erratic and probably get shut down after 160 innings. He will also have some incredibly dominant starts but it's a safe bet someone will drastically overvalue him in your league, so don't get your hopes up. Pettitte, the man of many T's, could still provide some value at the back of your fantasy rotation, especially since he will have so little pressure with the strength of the rest of the staff. Like Buchholz in Boston, it seems likely Phil Hughes will be on the outside looking in.
Toronto Blue Jays
1. Roy Halladay
2. Jesse Litsch
3. David Purcey
4. Casey Janssen
5. Scott Richmond
The line: Halladay is simply the best. An innings eating ERA machine who never tired or slowed down during 2008, and piled up strikeouts to boot. He's a top five SP going into drafts. There is no bigger gap in any rotation than the chasm between Halladay and the rest of these jokers. Litsch just doesn't have the stuff to support his numbers, Purcey is still nothing more than a sleeper, Janssen is a converted middle reliever who already failed once at starting, and Richmond really doesn't have much potential--though his startling 0.67 K/9 and 10.0 K/BB during his major league cup of coffee bears watching. There's one and only one SP worth drafting from this team, though everyone should closely monitor Dustin McGowan's potential return from injury (expected as early as May).
Baltimore Orioles
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Brad Hennessey
The line: Oregon's own Guthrie is really coming into his own, showing constant improvement despite enduring pitiful run support. He is at least draftable as a 6th starter and will contribute positively to your fantasy team's ERA and WHIP, though wins will be spotty. Import rookie Uehara has a lot of sleeper value and should be watched closely--scouts say he throws a mean forkball with very good control. Hill's fantastic 2007 with the Cubs seems so long ago. He's a reclamation project now after his command completely collapsed in 2008. The less said about Hendrickson, Hennessey, or the other four starters who could compete for a job, the better.
The AL is done--next week we head to sunny California and parts nearby for the NL West. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!
~Evan
SPs Around the Majors - AL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Now here's a division that SP dorks can get excited about. The AL East features some of the major league's best aces, some of the most exciting young pitchers, and some of the most controversial fantasy SPs. Oh yeah, and a few guys who pitch for Baltimore.
Tampa Bay Rays
1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price
The line: The switch at the top of the depth chart for the Rays is both a testament to the growing frustration with Kazmir's inability to either stay healthy or throw fewer than 4.2 pitches per batter, and the slow realization that Shields is the absolute real deal. The new Rays ace, one of my personal favorite SPs in baseball, has an incredible changeup that he uses brilliantly, and keeps his strikeout numbers reasonably high while providing solid support in the WHIP area (the forgotten fantasy category). He is going to win a Cy Young someday. Kazmir is still top 20 in my 2009 rankings, based on the fact that he led the major leagues in strikeouts just two years ago and still posted a 3.49 ERA with his uneven 2008 season, but if he goes through another season without pitching in the seventh inning he will be dropping further down the depth chart quickly. Look for Garza to be overrated by playoff-starry owners who don't realize his K/9 rate was only 6.3 and are sure this is the year he becomes an ace. He's solid, but not at the level some think. Sonnanstine, like Shields, has incredibly low walk numbers (only 1.7 BB/9) but makes up for it with a nice scattering of base hits. With limited strikeout upside, he's still on the level of a mixed league sniper start. And of course, the controversial wild card Price--let's get one thing out of the way: I don't think there's a chance in the world he doesn't open the season in the rotation. That being the case, he could provide the same numbers as Kazmir with high strikeouts and low IP counts (and therefore limited wins) but as with any young first-year phenom be wary of two things: injury risk, and early shutdown risk. Discount his value accordingly. I would not draft him higher than my #4 SP in a mixed league.
Boston Red Sox
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
The line: I, unlike almost every other pundit, do not recommend Beckett as a fantasy ace, and in fact do not have him in my Top 20. His K and BB numbers sure looked good, but he was subject to frequent disaster starts, and I need to see more consistency before I fully buy back in. Lester, on the other hand, found his way into the bottom of my Top 20 with remarkable composure and consistency all year. His relatively low strikeouts are all that's keeping him from true ace level. Dice-K is a truly confounding pitcher. Observe the pristine 2.90 ERA and the incredible 18-3 record--and stop and think that he actually averaged a win, that most valuable of fantasy stats, every 9.3 innings he pitched. That is borderline mystical for a pitcher who walks batters at a Kazmir-esque level, running up embarrassing 5.0 BB/9 and 1.6 K/BB ratios, and can't get deep into games as a result. But he's a lock for wins, strikeouts, and at worst an above-average ERA, and is my favorite Red Sox SP for fantasy players. Wakefield is just an innings-eater with some win potential and no real mixed league fantasy relevance. Penny appears ready for Opening Day but is DND until we see what he's capable of. Did anyone else not realize he's only 30 years old? The better option is to draft John Smoltz very late and wait for his June return, when he will take a rotation spot. All this equals a logjam for poor Clay Buchholz who doesn't appear to have a clear path to much major league time this year.
New York Yankees
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Chien-Mein Wang
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite
The line: The Yankee hater in me is trying to find reasons why this team and its mega-spending will fail this year. It's pretty hard with Sabathia who showed an incredible ability to put a team on his back in crunch time. Is it really that difficult to forsee that wear and tear having an effect into this season though? And will the big laid-back California kid be able to deal with the New York media that chewed up and spit out Randy Johnson? Still, it's tough to rank him any lower than third overall, as I have him. I think Burnett is a much shakier signing considering his injury history--there are few as impressive when he's healthy, but that has never been a guarantee. I can promise that he won't finish in the top three in pitches thrown in 2009, as he did last year, now that he's got the contract. There's a reason Wang slips so late in every round--his strikeouts don't exist and he's very shaky on the road, plus he's coming off a serious injury. Chamberlain is the most controversial fantasy pitcher for the second straight year. He will be erratic and probably get shut down after 160 innings. He will also have some incredibly dominant starts but it's a safe bet someone will drastically overvalue him in your league, so don't get your hopes up. Pettitte, the man of many T's, could still provide some value at the back of your fantasy rotation, especially since he will have so little pressure with the strength of the rest of the staff. Like Buchholz in Boston, it seems likely Phil Hughes will be on the outside looking in.
Toronto Blue Jays
1. Roy Halladay
2. Jesse Litsch
3. David Purcey
4. Casey Janssen
5. Scott Richmond
The line: Halladay is simply the best. An innings eating ERA machine who never tired or slowed down during 2008, and piled up strikeouts to boot. He's a top five SP going into drafts. There is no bigger gap in any rotation than the chasm between Halladay and the rest of these jokers. Litsch just doesn't have the stuff to support his numbers, Purcey is still nothing more than a sleeper, Janssen is a converted middle reliever who already failed once at starting, and Richmond really doesn't have much potential--though his startling 0.67 K/9 and 10.0 K/BB during his major league cup of coffee bears watching. There's one and only one SP worth drafting from this team, though everyone should closely monitor Dustin McGowan's potential return from injury (expected as early as May).
Baltimore Orioles
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Brad Hennessey
The line: Oregon's own Guthrie is really coming into his own, showing constant improvement despite enduring pitiful run support. He is at least draftable as a 6th starter and will contribute positively to your fantasy team's ERA and WHIP, though wins will be spotty. Import rookie Uehara has a lot of sleeper value and should be watched closely--scouts say he throws a mean forkball with very good control. Hill's fantastic 2007 with the Cubs seems so long ago. He's a reclamation project now after his command completely collapsed in 2008. The less said about Hendrickson, Hennessey, or the other four starters who could compete for a job, the better.
The AL is done--next week we head to sunny California and parts nearby for the NL West. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!
~Evan
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