SPs Around the Majors - NL West - 2/28/09
The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL West
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The NL West may be the strongest pitching division in the majors. As many as five of the top ten SPs in baseball pitch here, with a lot of solid mid-rotation guys and some really exciting young phenoms. And yes, the worst pitcher in baseball still makes $18 million a year. What recession?
Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer
The Line: These are five very distinct fantasy SPs, who combined might prove to be the best fantasy staff in baseball. Webb is far from the sexiest fantasy starter, but he is one of the most consistent and reliable, and should have no problem taking out 20 wins again with solid peripherals. Don't let anyone tell you he doesn't strike anyone out either--he finished 16th in the majors last year in Ks. However, his sore forearm in spring training at least bears watching. Haren, who tied for 5th in Ks and 7th in WHIP in '08, actually has the potential to post better numbers than Webb in every category but needs to prove he can last a full season without fading. He's absolutely a top 10 starter, but considering pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade midseason if he has another sick run (4 ER in 43 IP during one six-start stretch in Jun/Jul). Davis isn't draftable, especially after some ugly spring training struggles so far, but is always someone to pay attention to for a sniper start in good matchups. Garland will probably win 14 games again, at least, and maybe with the new cutter he is working on the Ks could see a slight bump, which is necessary for him to remain on a fantasy roster full-time. He is probably a waiver guy in any mixed league to start, though. Scherzer is the real deal, in case you didn't notice his last four starts where he struck out 32 batters in 22 innings. He will definitely be drafted, but like David Price and Joba Chamberlain, is high-risk for limited wins and will definitely be shut down early, since he has never pitched more than 109 IP in a season. Make sure your staff is balanced accordingly if you draft him.
San Francisco Giants
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
The Line: If the best staff in baseball is the Diamondbacks, then the highest K rate in baseball will definitely belong to the Giants. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Johan and projects out to another 18-win season with a 10 K/9 rate and a sub-3 ERA. He never seemed to tire in 2009 and if Bochy doesn't make him throw 140 pitches every game he could win another Cy Young. Don't let him slip by the late second round of your draft. Cain's 7.7 K/9 rate is stellar and his 8-14 record is highly misleading due to his pitiful run support (second worst in the majors), but his 1.36 WHIP raises serious red flags. He really only has one more year to prove whether he can be an ace-level pitcher as the hype promised, or just another mid-rotation guy. I wouldn't draft him any higher than 30th overall SP. At least health has not been a problem for him. I don't have a clue what to expect from Johnson but if he can stay healthy enough to throw 150 IP, that will translate to 130 K and probably at least 9 wins with excellent control. You could do worse for a fifth starter on your team. Look for him to gain momentum leading up to 300 wins. Sanchez is probably my favorite young sleeper in the majors--he is also going to challenge 9.0 K/9 and has very little pressure on him (and will learn a lot from Big Unit), plus his .327 BABIP last year and steadily improving control indicates he is a much better pitcher than his 5.01 ERA indicates. I have nothing to say about the other clown, other than he is the most overpaid athlete in the history of professional sports and anyone who drafts him should quit and go play fantasy NASCAR. I guess I will summarize my thoughts with this line from his 9/14 start at Petco Park, the greatest pitchers park in baseball: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 1K. If I told you that I knew a pitcher with a higher WHIP than K/9, does that sound like something you'd be interested in?
Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Randy Wolf
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Jason Schmidt
The Line: I was put in the position of having to dog on Billingsley a bit when every fantasy pundit was ready to propose to him in September, but now that I see him slipping out of the top fifteen SPs I see some value here. He is a K machine and a dominating force when he is on track. If not for a little blowup against Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season, his ERA (11th in the majors) would have been top ten in baseball. He has to work on his fastball control to bring down the WHIP, and hopefully avoid any complications from his offseason leg injury which doesn't appear to be a problem so far. Kuroda nearly threw a perfect game last year but generally does not have the stuff, or the durability, to be a reliable fantasy starter. In deeper leagues, Wolf could be a steal as a sleeper. His K/9 rate should be reliably over 7.5 and he brings a veteran presence to a solid pitchers park. Kershaw has undeniable upside but is being drafted far too early for a guy who hasn't thrown a full season yet. Give it one more year. Anyone else forget Schmidt still had a job? His presence on this depth chart begs an important question--who is actually going to be the fifth starter for the Dodgers?
San Diego Padres
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Kevin Correia
5. Josh Geer
The Line: Peavy was #2 in my rankings until the last part of the year, when his splits kept getting uglier and uglier. He now sports a +4 road ERA which could be a problem if he gets traded, as seems likely, and the pathetic team behind him will always make wins a challenge, which is troubling for a fantasy ace, especially one coming off a five-year low in K/9 and five-year high in BB/9. Too much talent to ignore, but be careful. Young's atrocious 4.22 BB/9 (only 7 pitchers worse in 2008--admittedly though Young only threw half a season) definitely caught up with him, and his peripherals suggest he has been lucky for a couple years now. His ERA will likely hover around 4.00 and his WHIP around 1.25, but even with injury risk he is a decent late sleeper for strikeouts in the 17th or 18th round. Baek and Correia will serve only to make poor depressed Padres fans continually ask "how many days until Peavy pitches?" Geer actually pitched pretty strong during his September callup but his minor league numbers indict him as just another sad, unusable Padres pitcher.
Colorado Rockies
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Greg Smith
The Line: Who cares, they all pitch in Coors Canaveral! Just kidding. Cook is a contact pitcher in a hitter's paradise, which spells even more trouble than his gnarly 4.09 K/9 rate, second-worst in the majors (and that's only if you think Livan Hernandez should count as "in the majors"). He's probably the worst Opening Day starter in fantasy baseball and will never win 16 games again. You'll likely find Jimenez and his ghastly stuff on most of my fantasy teams, as well as in the dictionary next to "heat." He got remarkably better in the late season and, with marked improvement in his control, could emerge as an elite pitcher any day now. And if he gives up home runs in Coors, at least they're fun to watch. Marquis' 1.30 K/BB is bad in every way and his historically high HR/9 rate could translate to many Coors souvenirs. Don't draft de la Rosa but don't forget him either--he was 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA in the second half and his 8.86 K/9 was bested only by six other pitchers in 2008. He's much more than the "deep NL-only sleeper" some are calling him. Smith, he of the worst run support in the history of baseball in 2008, came over in the Holliday trade and should have enough to get the fifth spot, though his 1.28 K/BB is awful and he may have a lot of trouble adjusting to Colorado. If he falters, look for Franklin Morales and his wicked stuff to get a chance to redeem a lost 2008.
The Censor will have to pull some (unpaid) overtime next week as the AL Central brings us six teams. Guess I better get to work...until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Sayonara...
~Evan the Censor
SPs Around the Majors - NL West
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The NL West may be the strongest pitching division in the majors. As many as five of the top ten SPs in baseball pitch here, with a lot of solid mid-rotation guys and some really exciting young phenoms. And yes, the worst pitcher in baseball still makes $18 million a year. What recession?
Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer
The Line: These are five very distinct fantasy SPs, who combined might prove to be the best fantasy staff in baseball. Webb is far from the sexiest fantasy starter, but he is one of the most consistent and reliable, and should have no problem taking out 20 wins again with solid peripherals. Don't let anyone tell you he doesn't strike anyone out either--he finished 16th in the majors last year in Ks. However, his sore forearm in spring training at least bears watching. Haren, who tied for 5th in Ks and 7th in WHIP in '08, actually has the potential to post better numbers than Webb in every category but needs to prove he can last a full season without fading. He's absolutely a top 10 starter, but considering pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade midseason if he has another sick run (4 ER in 43 IP during one six-start stretch in Jun/Jul). Davis isn't draftable, especially after some ugly spring training struggles so far, but is always someone to pay attention to for a sniper start in good matchups. Garland will probably win 14 games again, at least, and maybe with the new cutter he is working on the Ks could see a slight bump, which is necessary for him to remain on a fantasy roster full-time. He is probably a waiver guy in any mixed league to start, though. Scherzer is the real deal, in case you didn't notice his last four starts where he struck out 32 batters in 22 innings. He will definitely be drafted, but like David Price and Joba Chamberlain, is high-risk for limited wins and will definitely be shut down early, since he has never pitched more than 109 IP in a season. Make sure your staff is balanced accordingly if you draft him.
San Francisco Giants
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
The Line: If the best staff in baseball is the Diamondbacks, then the highest K rate in baseball will definitely belong to the Giants. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Johan and projects out to another 18-win season with a 10 K/9 rate and a sub-3 ERA. He never seemed to tire in 2009 and if Bochy doesn't make him throw 140 pitches every game he could win another Cy Young. Don't let him slip by the late second round of your draft. Cain's 7.7 K/9 rate is stellar and his 8-14 record is highly misleading due to his pitiful run support (second worst in the majors), but his 1.36 WHIP raises serious red flags. He really only has one more year to prove whether he can be an ace-level pitcher as the hype promised, or just another mid-rotation guy. I wouldn't draft him any higher than 30th overall SP. At least health has not been a problem for him. I don't have a clue what to expect from Johnson but if he can stay healthy enough to throw 150 IP, that will translate to 130 K and probably at least 9 wins with excellent control. You could do worse for a fifth starter on your team. Look for him to gain momentum leading up to 300 wins. Sanchez is probably my favorite young sleeper in the majors--he is also going to challenge 9.0 K/9 and has very little pressure on him (and will learn a lot from Big Unit), plus his .327 BABIP last year and steadily improving control indicates he is a much better pitcher than his 5.01 ERA indicates. I have nothing to say about the other clown, other than he is the most overpaid athlete in the history of professional sports and anyone who drafts him should quit and go play fantasy NASCAR. I guess I will summarize my thoughts with this line from his 9/14 start at Petco Park, the greatest pitchers park in baseball: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 1K. If I told you that I knew a pitcher with a higher WHIP than K/9, does that sound like something you'd be interested in?
Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Randy Wolf
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Jason Schmidt
The Line: I was put in the position of having to dog on Billingsley a bit when every fantasy pundit was ready to propose to him in September, but now that I see him slipping out of the top fifteen SPs I see some value here. He is a K machine and a dominating force when he is on track. If not for a little blowup against Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season, his ERA (11th in the majors) would have been top ten in baseball. He has to work on his fastball control to bring down the WHIP, and hopefully avoid any complications from his offseason leg injury which doesn't appear to be a problem so far. Kuroda nearly threw a perfect game last year but generally does not have the stuff, or the durability, to be a reliable fantasy starter. In deeper leagues, Wolf could be a steal as a sleeper. His K/9 rate should be reliably over 7.5 and he brings a veteran presence to a solid pitchers park. Kershaw has undeniable upside but is being drafted far too early for a guy who hasn't thrown a full season yet. Give it one more year. Anyone else forget Schmidt still had a job? His presence on this depth chart begs an important question--who is actually going to be the fifth starter for the Dodgers?
San Diego Padres
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Kevin Correia
5. Josh Geer
The Line: Peavy was #2 in my rankings until the last part of the year, when his splits kept getting uglier and uglier. He now sports a +4 road ERA which could be a problem if he gets traded, as seems likely, and the pathetic team behind him will always make wins a challenge, which is troubling for a fantasy ace, especially one coming off a five-year low in K/9 and five-year high in BB/9. Too much talent to ignore, but be careful. Young's atrocious 4.22 BB/9 (only 7 pitchers worse in 2008--admittedly though Young only threw half a season) definitely caught up with him, and his peripherals suggest he has been lucky for a couple years now. His ERA will likely hover around 4.00 and his WHIP around 1.25, but even with injury risk he is a decent late sleeper for strikeouts in the 17th or 18th round. Baek and Correia will serve only to make poor depressed Padres fans continually ask "how many days until Peavy pitches?" Geer actually pitched pretty strong during his September callup but his minor league numbers indict him as just another sad, unusable Padres pitcher.
Colorado Rockies
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Greg Smith
The Line: Who cares, they all pitch in Coors Canaveral! Just kidding. Cook is a contact pitcher in a hitter's paradise, which spells even more trouble than his gnarly 4.09 K/9 rate, second-worst in the majors (and that's only if you think Livan Hernandez should count as "in the majors"). He's probably the worst Opening Day starter in fantasy baseball and will never win 16 games again. You'll likely find Jimenez and his ghastly stuff on most of my fantasy teams, as well as in the dictionary next to "heat." He got remarkably better in the late season and, with marked improvement in his control, could emerge as an elite pitcher any day now. And if he gives up home runs in Coors, at least they're fun to watch. Marquis' 1.30 K/BB is bad in every way and his historically high HR/9 rate could translate to many Coors souvenirs. Don't draft de la Rosa but don't forget him either--he was 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA in the second half and his 8.86 K/9 was bested only by six other pitchers in 2008. He's much more than the "deep NL-only sleeper" some are calling him. Smith, he of the worst run support in the history of baseball in 2008, came over in the Holliday trade and should have enough to get the fifth spot, though his 1.28 K/BB is awful and he may have a lot of trouble adjusting to Colorado. If he falters, look for Franklin Morales and his wicked stuff to get a chance to redeem a lost 2008.
The Censor will have to pull some (unpaid) overtime next week as the AL Central brings us six teams. Guess I better get to work...until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Sayonara...
~Evan the Censor
1 Comments:
Great article Evan. I loved it.
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