Last Minute Draft Prep - A Value Staff - 3/26/09
It's no secret that the Censor is the world's biggest lover of starting pitching, and as such I always do my best to grab at least a couple anchors for my staff in the very early rounds. Maybe you don't feel the same and prefer to draft a staff more from the value perspective. If that's your goal, I've been scouring the most current ADP reports and I've got a seven-man rotation for your fantasy team that I think will have no problem outperforming their draft positions. This staff will get you wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP help across the board and put a value-oriented drafter on the fast track to a league title!
Chad Billingsley - 16th SP overall, ADP mid-8th round
His stuff is unquestionable--201 Ks good for ninth in the majors--and his 3.14 ERA is undoubtedly impressive for such a young kid in his first full year in the rotation. He's a true ace and should have no problem going for 16 wins again in 2009. I thought he was a bit overhyped at one point, but (false) injury fears have pushed his ADP down to a level where I would love to have him. I can promise there won't be fifteen better fantasy starters this year.
Ricky Nolasco - 26th SP overall, ADP early 11th round
Nolasco is my kind of pitcher--a control pitcher. Only four pitchers in the majors with 210+ IP had fewer walks than Nolasco's 42 BB in 212.1 IP. He maintains that control while still maintaining a strong 7.9 K/9 rate. He hasn't missed a beat in the spring with a 0.60 ERA, and all he needs is to lower the flyball rate and thus hopefully get his HR/9 down below last year's 1.19 before he's a true bonafide ace.
Brett Myers - 30th SP overall, ADP mid-12th round
Drafting Myers this low is a great example of how a long stretch of bad performance can leave a negative taste in other owners' mouths that lingers much longer than it should have. Don't be the sucker who can only remember Myers being so bad that he was sent down in the middle of 2008, and forgets that Myers posted a triumphant 3.06 ERA after the break. He is a great source of lower-risk strikeouts at this stage in the draft--he should have no trouble posting another 8.0 K/9 rate as he did in 2005-2007 with the adjustments of 2008 behind him.
Ryan Dempster - 39th SP overall, ADP mid-14th round
There's not much more I can say about Dempster that I don't say in almost every article I write. I think he's the most undervalued pitcher in all of baseball this year. How can a sub-3.00 ERA and 8+ K/9 rate, with comfortable peripherals and an above-average groundball rate, pitching for a great team who will guarantee him 15 wins, fall below the 10th round? If you let him slip out of your grasp you will regret it all year.
Gil Meche - 59th SP overall, ADP late 20th round
Remember when Meche's 5-year, $55 million deal seemed unreasonable? Carlos Silva and Barry Zito have done their part to make it look much better, but Meche's pitching has improved over the last two years, and he has now been named the Opening Day starter again for the Royals. Like every pitcher on this value staff, his K/9 rate is fantastic, and he had a fantastic second half--posting 11 wins and a 3.09 ERA over the last four months. Expect that level of pitching to continue, making this is a great value position for Meche.
Chris Carpenter - 64th SP overall, ADP late 22nd round
This could be the pick that makes your draft. Carpenter is two years removed from pitching at a Cy Young level for two straight years (he should have won in 2006). Now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery he is healthy and ready to contribute. So far in spring he's thrown nineteen innings with no earned runs, and in his most recent appearance he struck out six and walked none in five innings. Everything is working: the fastball, the 87 mph slider, and the solid curveball. Rotowire's most recent player update says "He looks ready." You think? Look for a rapid rise from this position in the final week, but he could still be a solid No. 2 fantasy pitcher by the time the season is done.
Ubaldo Jimenez - 70th SP overall, ADP mid-25th round
High-risk? No doubt. But the reward here is just as high, especially this late in a draft. After a disastrous first half, Jimenez pitched himself all the way down to a 3.99 ERA for the year. The walk rate one of the highest in the majors so he will always be WHIP-challenged, but his stuff is so sick it almost seems wrong--in an exhibition game against Milwaukee, he broke eight bats. The groundball rate is improving and the K/9 has incredible upside, and you just won't find a harder-throwing pitcher in the majors. When you take him this late, if it doesn't work out, you cut your losses and shrug your shoulders.
That's a staff that a value drafter can go to war with! Good luck in your last minute drafts, and if you have questions about any other starting pitchers, don't forget to e-mail me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Good luck!
~Evan the Censor
Chad Billingsley - 16th SP overall, ADP mid-8th round
His stuff is unquestionable--201 Ks good for ninth in the majors--and his 3.14 ERA is undoubtedly impressive for such a young kid in his first full year in the rotation. He's a true ace and should have no problem going for 16 wins again in 2009. I thought he was a bit overhyped at one point, but (false) injury fears have pushed his ADP down to a level where I would love to have him. I can promise there won't be fifteen better fantasy starters this year.
Ricky Nolasco - 26th SP overall, ADP early 11th round
Nolasco is my kind of pitcher--a control pitcher. Only four pitchers in the majors with 210+ IP had fewer walks than Nolasco's 42 BB in 212.1 IP. He maintains that control while still maintaining a strong 7.9 K/9 rate. He hasn't missed a beat in the spring with a 0.60 ERA, and all he needs is to lower the flyball rate and thus hopefully get his HR/9 down below last year's 1.19 before he's a true bonafide ace.
Brett Myers - 30th SP overall, ADP mid-12th round
Drafting Myers this low is a great example of how a long stretch of bad performance can leave a negative taste in other owners' mouths that lingers much longer than it should have. Don't be the sucker who can only remember Myers being so bad that he was sent down in the middle of 2008, and forgets that Myers posted a triumphant 3.06 ERA after the break. He is a great source of lower-risk strikeouts at this stage in the draft--he should have no trouble posting another 8.0 K/9 rate as he did in 2005-2007 with the adjustments of 2008 behind him.
Ryan Dempster - 39th SP overall, ADP mid-14th round
There's not much more I can say about Dempster that I don't say in almost every article I write. I think he's the most undervalued pitcher in all of baseball this year. How can a sub-3.00 ERA and 8+ K/9 rate, with comfortable peripherals and an above-average groundball rate, pitching for a great team who will guarantee him 15 wins, fall below the 10th round? If you let him slip out of your grasp you will regret it all year.
Gil Meche - 59th SP overall, ADP late 20th round
Remember when Meche's 5-year, $55 million deal seemed unreasonable? Carlos Silva and Barry Zito have done their part to make it look much better, but Meche's pitching has improved over the last two years, and he has now been named the Opening Day starter again for the Royals. Like every pitcher on this value staff, his K/9 rate is fantastic, and he had a fantastic second half--posting 11 wins and a 3.09 ERA over the last four months. Expect that level of pitching to continue, making this is a great value position for Meche.
Chris Carpenter - 64th SP overall, ADP late 22nd round
This could be the pick that makes your draft. Carpenter is two years removed from pitching at a Cy Young level for two straight years (he should have won in 2006). Now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery he is healthy and ready to contribute. So far in spring he's thrown nineteen innings with no earned runs, and in his most recent appearance he struck out six and walked none in five innings. Everything is working: the fastball, the 87 mph slider, and the solid curveball. Rotowire's most recent player update says "He looks ready." You think? Look for a rapid rise from this position in the final week, but he could still be a solid No. 2 fantasy pitcher by the time the season is done.
Ubaldo Jimenez - 70th SP overall, ADP mid-25th round
High-risk? No doubt. But the reward here is just as high, especially this late in a draft. After a disastrous first half, Jimenez pitched himself all the way down to a 3.99 ERA for the year. The walk rate one of the highest in the majors so he will always be WHIP-challenged, but his stuff is so sick it almost seems wrong--in an exhibition game against Milwaukee, he broke eight bats. The groundball rate is improving and the K/9 has incredible upside, and you just won't find a harder-throwing pitcher in the majors. When you take him this late, if it doesn't work out, you cut your losses and shrug your shoulders.
That's a staff that a value drafter can go to war with! Good luck in your last minute drafts, and if you have questions about any other starting pitchers, don't forget to e-mail me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Good luck!
~Evan the Censor
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