SPs Around the Majors - NL East - 3/14/09
The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Our final stop around the major leagues takes us to the Censor's collision of heart vs. head. Four teams that I hate and root against feverishly every single year, and one that I dearly love and treasure beyond all rational analysis. So having said that, who do you think I'm going to rank as the best rotation in the division?
New York Mets
1. Johan Santana
2. John Maine
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. Oliver Perez
5. Freddy Garcia
The Line: There's a hefty dose of uncertainty around the bottom half of the rotation, but my heart leaps up when I behold the best SP in all of baseball. Santana has proven before that he has the ability to make an entire team and rotation better when he puts them on his shoulders and the young pitchers of the Mets will need that more than ever. Now he's dodged the WBC and is coming off what some call a "disappointing" season where all he did was post a career-year low ERA of 2.53 and lead the major leagues in quality starts with 28--imagine 28 quality starts again, with the renewed Mets bullpen, and you see why he is still obviously the first SP off the board. It's hard to remember that Maine pitched like an All-Star for the first half of 2007--that may have been over his head, but the response to last year's disappointing season in mock drafts has been precipitous. With a career 7.71 K/9, there is nothing but value for him in the 20th or 21st round. I wish I loved Pelfrey the way I used to but it's tough to understand how he could take 100 innings of 10.0 K/9 in the minors, and translate it to a major league career rate of 5.13 K/9. His control is getting much better and he's really learning how to be a ground ball pitcher, but he is not exactly a hot sleeper without the promise of more than 120 Ks. Perez is the real wildcard--among other gaudy 2008 stats, he boasts the third-highest BB/9 and the lowest GB/FB ratio in the majors. He also has a career K/9 of 8.35 and can be amazing in spurts, but his offspeed pitches dropped under 4% of total pitches last year and when he blows up, it's usually not only violent and ugly, but usually in easy matchups against bad teams. I and my fellow Met fans would have rather signed Derek Lowe, but we keep our fingers crossed for upside and talent. Just be careful. The fifth spot is now a question again after Tim Redding's shutdown in spring training, and Garcia is probably the best option--but I'm only saying that because the thought of Livan Hernandez, who could not break a plate glass window with his fastball and posted a hideous 3.35 K/9 last year, makes me ill. The best case scenario is for the young stud Jonathan Niese to be ready sooner than later, but the Mets have a very bad recent history of working young arms successfully into their plans (ask Phil Humber) and Niese has not been stellar so far in spring training. Depending on Redding's health and Perez's mental state, the Mets could be in desperate need of a deadline deal.
Atlanta Braves
1. Derek Lowe
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Tom Glavine
The Line: Those without a dog in the fight would probably be more inclined to call this the best rotation in the division, but hey, a man's got to follow his true love. I sure wish I was writing about Lowe in the paragraph above--he's so durable and consistent and fearless down the stretch and stealthily climbed to a 3.24 ERA with a series of late-season dominant starts. There is no fantasy team that couldn't benefit from him as a nice fourth or fifth starter in the 15th or 16th round. Vazquez is a very different pitcher; for fantasy purposes he's about nothing but the strikeouts with a superb 8.64 K/9 in 2008, but mixing that with 16 losses and an icky 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, his highest since 2000. He's being drafted higher than he should be on the basis of the likely NL-transition bump, but be careful because he is never a sure thing. Although Jurrjens led his team in wins and and strikeouts in 2008, that says more about the quality of Atlanta's 2008 staff. He is due for a sophomore slump with his lower strikeout rates and reliance on a mediocre changeup. I'm not drafting him. I'm also not drafting Kawakami because his stuff isn't that strong and it's very difficult to know what to expect a 34-year-old import rookie, and I still have a scar where I drafted Kei Igawa in 2006. Do whatever you want with Glavine. I'm not drafting him because, well, I hate him, and anyway it won't take long before he gives way to the fireballing Tommy Hanson, who quite legitimately could be called the favorite for Rookie of the Year before he even takes the mound. He is worth drafting once you get to the 22nd or 23rd round if he's still around, but be prepared to stash him.
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ
The Line: You can imagine it's hard for a Mets fan to target a Phillies player for any reason, but Hamels is just spectactular, now rather obviously one of the top five SPs in baseball. He's getting light work in spring since he threw 262 IP last year including playoffs, but don't worry too much. His K/9 will be above 8, he will win at least 16 games, and his breathtaking 1.08 WHIP should be in place again in 2009. As long as his changeup remains this unhittable, he isn't going anywhere and is an ace in every sense of the word. Myers took a half season to remember how to be a starter again (though I still think he would have made a great long-term closer for someone) and threw a 3.06 ERA in the second half, yet he'll still slip well into the middle rounds of the draft. With his strikeout potential, and remembering he's still only 28, there is really solid value potential there. Moyer isn't good for much more than humor when looking at his pitch stats--his 81.2 mph fastball is bested only by Tim Wakefield, and none of his metrics support a repeat of his 3.71 ERA--the downside is closer to 4.80. Blanton has a bit more late and deep fantasy value as an innings-eater and, believe it or not, has still not posted a L since being traded from Oakland. Happ has a lot of sleeper potential if he does in fact win the job, though he will need to work to keep his HR and flyball rates down.
SPs Around the Majors - NL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Our final stop around the major leagues takes us to the Censor's collision of heart vs. head. Four teams that I hate and root against feverishly every single year, and one that I dearly love and treasure beyond all rational analysis. So having said that, who do you think I'm going to rank as the best rotation in the division?
New York Mets
1. Johan Santana
2. John Maine
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. Oliver Perez
5. Freddy Garcia
The Line: There's a hefty dose of uncertainty around the bottom half of the rotation, but my heart leaps up when I behold the best SP in all of baseball. Santana has proven before that he has the ability to make an entire team and rotation better when he puts them on his shoulders and the young pitchers of the Mets will need that more than ever. Now he's dodged the WBC and is coming off what some call a "disappointing" season where all he did was post a career-year low ERA of 2.53 and lead the major leagues in quality starts with 28--imagine 28 quality starts again, with the renewed Mets bullpen, and you see why he is still obviously the first SP off the board. It's hard to remember that Maine pitched like an All-Star for the first half of 2007--that may have been over his head, but the response to last year's disappointing season in mock drafts has been precipitous. With a career 7.71 K/9, there is nothing but value for him in the 20th or 21st round. I wish I loved Pelfrey the way I used to but it's tough to understand how he could take 100 innings of 10.0 K/9 in the minors, and translate it to a major league career rate of 5.13 K/9. His control is getting much better and he's really learning how to be a ground ball pitcher, but he is not exactly a hot sleeper without the promise of more than 120 Ks. Perez is the real wildcard--among other gaudy 2008 stats, he boasts the third-highest BB/9 and the lowest GB/FB ratio in the majors. He also has a career K/9 of 8.35 and can be amazing in spurts, but his offspeed pitches dropped under 4% of total pitches last year and when he blows up, it's usually not only violent and ugly, but usually in easy matchups against bad teams. I and my fellow Met fans would have rather signed Derek Lowe, but we keep our fingers crossed for upside and talent. Just be careful. The fifth spot is now a question again after Tim Redding's shutdown in spring training, and Garcia is probably the best option--but I'm only saying that because the thought of Livan Hernandez, who could not break a plate glass window with his fastball and posted a hideous 3.35 K/9 last year, makes me ill. The best case scenario is for the young stud Jonathan Niese to be ready sooner than later, but the Mets have a very bad recent history of working young arms successfully into their plans (ask Phil Humber) and Niese has not been stellar so far in spring training. Depending on Redding's health and Perez's mental state, the Mets could be in desperate need of a deadline deal.
Atlanta Braves
1. Derek Lowe
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Tom Glavine
The Line: Those without a dog in the fight would probably be more inclined to call this the best rotation in the division, but hey, a man's got to follow his true love. I sure wish I was writing about Lowe in the paragraph above--he's so durable and consistent and fearless down the stretch and stealthily climbed to a 3.24 ERA with a series of late-season dominant starts. There is no fantasy team that couldn't benefit from him as a nice fourth or fifth starter in the 15th or 16th round. Vazquez is a very different pitcher; for fantasy purposes he's about nothing but the strikeouts with a superb 8.64 K/9 in 2008, but mixing that with 16 losses and an icky 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, his highest since 2000. He's being drafted higher than he should be on the basis of the likely NL-transition bump, but be careful because he is never a sure thing. Although Jurrjens led his team in wins and and strikeouts in 2008, that says more about the quality of Atlanta's 2008 staff. He is due for a sophomore slump with his lower strikeout rates and reliance on a mediocre changeup. I'm not drafting him. I'm also not drafting Kawakami because his stuff isn't that strong and it's very difficult to know what to expect a 34-year-old import rookie, and I still have a scar where I drafted Kei Igawa in 2006. Do whatever you want with Glavine. I'm not drafting him because, well, I hate him, and anyway it won't take long before he gives way to the fireballing Tommy Hanson, who quite legitimately could be called the favorite for Rookie of the Year before he even takes the mound. He is worth drafting once you get to the 22nd or 23rd round if he's still around, but be prepared to stash him.
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ
The Line: You can imagine it's hard for a Mets fan to target a Phillies player for any reason, but Hamels is just spectactular, now rather obviously one of the top five SPs in baseball. He's getting light work in spring since he threw 262 IP last year including playoffs, but don't worry too much. His K/9 will be above 8, he will win at least 16 games, and his breathtaking 1.08 WHIP should be in place again in 2009. As long as his changeup remains this unhittable, he isn't going anywhere and is an ace in every sense of the word. Myers took a half season to remember how to be a starter again (though I still think he would have made a great long-term closer for someone) and threw a 3.06 ERA in the second half, yet he'll still slip well into the middle rounds of the draft. With his strikeout potential, and remembering he's still only 28, there is really solid value potential there. Moyer isn't good for much more than humor when looking at his pitch stats--his 81.2 mph fastball is bested only by Tim Wakefield, and none of his metrics support a repeat of his 3.71 ERA--the downside is closer to 4.80. Blanton has a bit more late and deep fantasy value as an innings-eater and, believe it or not, has still not posted a L since being traded from Oakland. Happ has a lot of sleeper potential if he does in fact win the job, though he will need to work to keep his HR and flyball rates down.
1. Ricky Nolasco
2. Josh Johnson
3. Chris Volstad
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Andrew Miller
The Line: Nolasco's growth last year was delightful to watch as so many of his current and former Marlins teammates melted down. He's a genuine major league ace now and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace. His sparkling 1.10 WHIP is bested only by Halladay and Hamels, two top five pitchers, and his K/BB of 4.43 was good for seventh-best in the majors. He's being referred to as a cheaper version of Dan Haren, and while you won't get him much later than the 10th round, that still could be the steal of the draft. Johnson spent most of his major league rookie season in 2006 leading the major leagues in ERA, and after losing a season and a half came back and looked like the phenom he once was. He will never be the control pitcher that Nolasco is, but could strike out quite a few more, and should be available in the 14th or 15th rounds with plenty of upside. The sleeper upside train keeps rolling with Volstad whose 2.88 ERA in 84 IP in 2008 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the too-low 5.55 K/9 and too-high 3.84 BB/9. He's a reasonable late-round sleeper in the 23rd round. With all that potential in this frontloaded rotation, have we really forgotten that Sanchez threw the first no-hitter in years back in 2006? His strikeout potential and raw stuff are great but his injury woes have been devastating so far, making him one to avoid for at least the first few weeks of the season. For the love of all that is holy, don't draft Miller, who is now sporting a 10.57 ERA in spring training and pitches about that well. All I hear about with him is upside, but he's been ghastly every step of the way in Florida. Was this guy really the centerpiece of the Miguel Cabrera trade?
Washington Nationals
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Jordan Zimmerman
The Line: This one's easy: don't draft any of these guys! Lannan is the staff ace and should get an ERA under 4.00 but will struggle to find 10 wins and does not have strikeout upside. Olsen's days as a hot prospect are gone as his K/9 rate continues to plummet, from 8.27 to 6.78 to 5.04 over the last three full seasons. Nothing there for me. Hill is not fantasy-relevant, and is lucky to stay healthy for a month at a time. I'm hearing great things about Zimmerman and his dominance in camp, which makes me interested to see how the Nationals intend to screw up his career. And of course, the best for last: Cabrera has established himself as the biggest waste of fantasy potential in modern history. How can someone with a career fastball average of 94.2 mph be this bad? His BB/9 of 4.50 being 6th-worst in the majors was not a surprise, but his K/9 level plummeting to a miserable 4.75, 11th-worst in the majors, adds up to an absolutely pathetic 1.06 K/BB, a level that only '06 Steve Trachsel has sunk to among all ERA qualifiers in the past four major league seasons. I wouldn't even draft him in a 12-team Nationals-only format.
There we go, our voyage around the major leagues is concluded. Tune in next week as the Censor's new column, Stat SPaz, debuts with a look at BABIP. Until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com, and may I say once more--Go Mets!
~Evan the Censor
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