The Starting Line: Felix vs. Verlander - 4/17/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.
The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.
For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.
For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.
When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.
Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.
The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.
For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.
For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.
When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.
Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander
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