Stat SPaz Week, Day 3: O-Swing & Miss%

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After reviewing two very standard fantasy baseball stats, I have to admit that this week's stat is something that I have cobbled together from other stats, but I find fascinating and very useful in identifying the truly dominant pitchers.

The O-Swing% measures the percentage of times that a pitcher induces a batter to swing at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone. Conversely, the O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings outside the strike zone that make contact. What I've done is taken the inverse of O-Contact% and applied it to O-Swing% to invent my own stat--the O-Swing & Miss%! This is the measurement of what percent of an SP's pitches outside of the strike zone induce a swing and miss. This, to me, may be the best measurement of strikeout effectiveness (better than K/9 even) because a pitcher is only getting these swings and misses if their stuff and their location are so good that batters are either a) completely fooled, or b) afraid to take the pitch. I can't give historical data on this, but to compensate I'll give you the top and the bottom ten so far this year.

Ten Best 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 14.9% - Chad Billingsley
2. 14.7% - Felix Hernandez
3. 14.5% - Javier Vazquez
4. 14.4% - Dan Haren
5. 14.1% - Tim Lincecum
6. 13.9% - Ryan Dempster
7. 13.6% - Jorge de la Rosa
8. 13.1% - Jon Lester
9. 13.0% - Francisco Liriano
8. 12.8% - Roy Halladay

Now there's a list of ten fantasy pitches I want to own--SPs that I know have the skill-set to consistently dominate their competition. If you're still in a league that de la Rosa is not owned in, make sure you remedy that immediately, and if you need any more proof that Lester's strikeout ability is for real, here it is.

Ten Worst 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 4.4% - Mike Pelfrey
2. 4.5% - Brad Penny
3. 4.5% - Livan Hernandez
4. 4.9% - J.A. Happ
5. 5.2% - Vicente Padilla
6. 5.6% - John Lannan
7. 5.7% - Randy Wolf
8. 5.7% - Tim Wakefield
9. 5.9% - Jeremy Guthrie
10. 6.1% - Derek Lowe

Almost zero fantasy interest on that list, other than Lowe potentially, and the reason is clear. When you can't get guys to swing and miss at your pitches out of the strike zone, you're either going to walk everybody or have to send lots of pitches up the middle and pitch to contact. Ground-ball pitchers on this list (like Lowe) can deal with this; guys like Happ and Wolf, though, who still put up decent K numbers are major red flags because those strikeouts are all coming from pitches up the middle. These softies don't belong on my roster.

Hopefully you've found these last three days to be worthwhile. The Censor's taking a break tomorrow and then we'll take a look at the season so far for some of the major "luck stats": BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. Hooray for stats! Send me an email if you have any questions or feel free to leave a comment below.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Felix vs. Verlander - 4/17/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K

Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.

The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.

For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.

For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.

When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.

Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor