Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:

2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM

Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.

Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.

Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET

These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.

Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Felix vs. Verlander - 4/17/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K

Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.

The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.

For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.

For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.

When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.

Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor