Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:
2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM
Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.
Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.
Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET
These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.
Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:
2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM
Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.
Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.
Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET
These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.
Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: GB/FB, Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Justin Verlander, Ted Lilly
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