The Starting Line: Jason Marquis - 7/6/2009
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through.
First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants.
And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in.
Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge.
Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008.
~Evan the Censor~
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through.
First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants.
And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in.
Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge.
Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008.
~Evan the Censor~
Labels: Jason Marquis
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