The Starting Line: Johnny Cueto - 5/24/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Over the next four days, the Censor's going to take a look at some of the young guns who had everyone abuzz with their high-strikeout, high-ceiling potential at draft time and see how that potential has translated to success so far in 2009.
Johnny Cueto v CLE, 5/24/2009
ND, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Cueto's major league debut will be forever burned in the minds of fantasy gurus--for a rookie pitcher to strike out 10 and walk zero in their first start is something incredible. Then to follow that up with another 8 K, 0 BB performance solidified Cueto as a fantasy legend. Until, of course, reality set in and Cueto's 2008 season line settled at 9-14, 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, along with a scary 1.50 HR/9, fifth-worst in the majors. Not exactly ideal fantasy numbers, but the 8.17 K/9 left some hope and Cueto was taken as a late-round flier in all mixed leagues--and is paying off huge dividends so far in 2009.
Through nine starts, Cueto is now 4-2, with a scintillating 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That includes five starts of at least 7.0 IP, and two or fewer ER. He is certainly showing improvement, but a look at his peripherals indicates there is still some room for growth. Cueto's pitch counts are usually topping 100 earlier in the game than the Reds and their shaky bullpen would prefer, and his 3.94 pitches per batter faced (unchanged from 2008) is not an ideal level. Similarly, Cueto is still only throwing 63% of pitches for strikes, a level at the low range of acceptable. He is certainly pitching to contact more, as evidenced by a K/9 rate that has dropped to 6.97 and a BB/9 rate that has also dropped from 3.52 to a solid 2.37.
The biggest improvement is the home run rate--cut in half to 0.74 HR/9, yet you have to wonder if that's sustainable since Cueto's HR/FB is only 7%, which is well below the major league average. Similarly, it's tough to imagine his opponent BA of .216 being even close to sustainable when only 25% of batted balls have gone for hits. Regression is due.
A pitcher like Johnny Cueto, who throws fastball or slider for 95% of pitches, is going to be challenged to have long-term success as a starter. He's looked great so far this year, but has also had his share of luck, and to anyone who hurriedly snatched him up after last year's hot start you remember what regression feels like. If you've enjoyed Cueto's dynamite contribution to your 2009 stat line, no need to make a panic deal, but it's probably time to sell high and move on to something else because I think we've seen the best part of his season.
Please remember to email me if you would like any specific starter, or any other element of starting pitcher, covered in this blog. Happy Memorial Day!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Over the next four days, the Censor's going to take a look at some of the young guns who had everyone abuzz with their high-strikeout, high-ceiling potential at draft time and see how that potential has translated to success so far in 2009.
Johnny Cueto v CLE, 5/24/2009
ND, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Cueto's major league debut will be forever burned in the minds of fantasy gurus--for a rookie pitcher to strike out 10 and walk zero in their first start is something incredible. Then to follow that up with another 8 K, 0 BB performance solidified Cueto as a fantasy legend. Until, of course, reality set in and Cueto's 2008 season line settled at 9-14, 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, along with a scary 1.50 HR/9, fifth-worst in the majors. Not exactly ideal fantasy numbers, but the 8.17 K/9 left some hope and Cueto was taken as a late-round flier in all mixed leagues--and is paying off huge dividends so far in 2009.
Through nine starts, Cueto is now 4-2, with a scintillating 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That includes five starts of at least 7.0 IP, and two or fewer ER. He is certainly showing improvement, but a look at his peripherals indicates there is still some room for growth. Cueto's pitch counts are usually topping 100 earlier in the game than the Reds and their shaky bullpen would prefer, and his 3.94 pitches per batter faced (unchanged from 2008) is not an ideal level. Similarly, Cueto is still only throwing 63% of pitches for strikes, a level at the low range of acceptable. He is certainly pitching to contact more, as evidenced by a K/9 rate that has dropped to 6.97 and a BB/9 rate that has also dropped from 3.52 to a solid 2.37.
The biggest improvement is the home run rate--cut in half to 0.74 HR/9, yet you have to wonder if that's sustainable since Cueto's HR/FB is only 7%, which is well below the major league average. Similarly, it's tough to imagine his opponent BA of .216 being even close to sustainable when only 25% of batted balls have gone for hits. Regression is due.
A pitcher like Johnny Cueto, who throws fastball or slider for 95% of pitches, is going to be challenged to have long-term success as a starter. He's looked great so far this year, but has also had his share of luck, and to anyone who hurriedly snatched him up after last year's hot start you remember what regression feels like. If you've enjoyed Cueto's dynamite contribution to your 2009 stat line, no need to make a panic deal, but it's probably time to sell high and move on to something else because I think we've seen the best part of his season.
Please remember to email me if you would like any specific starter, or any other element of starting pitcher, covered in this blog. Happy Memorial Day!
~Evan the Censor
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