The Starting Line: Ricky Nolasco - 5/13/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Ricky Nolasco @ MIL, 5/13/09
L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
I was absolutely one of the biggest fans of Ricky Nolasco going into the season--tough not to be with the numbers he put up and the composure with which he established himself as the Marlins ace last season. Now, Nolasco has extended his disastrous 2009 season through eight starts, in which he has never posted a game ERA less than 4.50 and has not pitched more than 6.0 IP once. Like many Nolasco owners, I'm sure, I got a nice offer trying to buy very low on Nolasco. At least it's something for a SP with a 7+ ERA, right? I'm not selling, and here's why I don't think you should either.
Nolasco was great for two reasons last season: his strikeout ability (7.9 K/9) combined with his pinpoint control (an incredible 1.78 BB/9)--good for seventh in the majors with a 4.43 K/BB, the Censor's favorite stat, and the third-lowest WHIP in the majors. Are the skills all gone? Not a chance: Nolasco is still striking out 7.6 batters per 9, and though walks have increased to 2.59 BB/9, that is still a quality starter number and Nolasco still throws two-thirds of pitches for strikes. No real change in ground ball rate or other unnerving peripherals.
The difference? Nolasco is on the other end of the Joe Saunders luck spectrum. Nolasco's BABIP is a ridiculous .387--which means that fully a fourth of the hits that batters are getting off him are due for regression. Even though I don't put much stock into strand rate, Nolasco's strand rate of 52.7% is positively eye-popping--the worst in the majors, and by a lot; second-worst is Daniel Cabrera at 56.6%. Hits are falling badly for Nolasco, and they're falling with men on base. His FIP, which as I've said is a useful ERA predictor, is 4.34--lower than any of his eight individual game ERAs. It sounds crazy after his start Wednesday, but seriously, this is one of the unluckiest stretches
All of this indicates that the best is yet to come for Nolasco--not only that, but it indicates he could still be the pitcher he was last year for a significant length of time. If that's the case, then you want him on your team, and you're highly advised to do what my fellow owner did and make a lowball trade offer while the bad taste is still present. I want Nolasco on my team now as much as I did in March.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Ricky Nolasco @ MIL, 5/13/09
L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
I was absolutely one of the biggest fans of Ricky Nolasco going into the season--tough not to be with the numbers he put up and the composure with which he established himself as the Marlins ace last season. Now, Nolasco has extended his disastrous 2009 season through eight starts, in which he has never posted a game ERA less than 4.50 and has not pitched more than 6.0 IP once. Like many Nolasco owners, I'm sure, I got a nice offer trying to buy very low on Nolasco. At least it's something for a SP with a 7+ ERA, right? I'm not selling, and here's why I don't think you should either.
Nolasco was great for two reasons last season: his strikeout ability (7.9 K/9) combined with his pinpoint control (an incredible 1.78 BB/9)--good for seventh in the majors with a 4.43 K/BB, the Censor's favorite stat, and the third-lowest WHIP in the majors. Are the skills all gone? Not a chance: Nolasco is still striking out 7.6 batters per 9, and though walks have increased to 2.59 BB/9, that is still a quality starter number and Nolasco still throws two-thirds of pitches for strikes. No real change in ground ball rate or other unnerving peripherals.
The difference? Nolasco is on the other end of the Joe Saunders luck spectrum. Nolasco's BABIP is a ridiculous .387--which means that fully a fourth of the hits that batters are getting off him are due for regression. Even though I don't put much stock into strand rate, Nolasco's strand rate of 52.7% is positively eye-popping--the worst in the majors, and by a lot; second-worst is Daniel Cabrera at 56.6%. Hits are falling badly for Nolasco, and they're falling with men on base. His FIP, which as I've said is a useful ERA predictor, is 4.34--lower than any of his eight individual game ERAs. It sounds crazy after his start Wednesday, but seriously, this is one of the unluckiest stretches
All of this indicates that the best is yet to come for Nolasco--not only that, but it indicates he could still be the pitcher he was last year for a significant length of time. If that's the case, then you want him on your team, and you're highly advised to do what my fellow owner did and make a lowball trade offer while the bad taste is still present. I want Nolasco on my team now as much as I did in March.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Ricky Nolasco
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