Rating the Skepticism Level - 4/10/09
The Starting Line
Rating the Skepticism Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
A few days ago we rated the Concern Level of some major league aces who sputtered out of the gate. Let's turn the tables now and rate the Skepticism Level for some guys who may not even have been drafted in your fantasy league, but look like some of the best in the majors in this short season. For this rating, 10 means "not a chance" and 1 means "this guy is for real."
1. Ubaldo Jimenez @ ARI - W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 2
This is the easiest one on the list--I already knew that the fastest fastball in the majors was the real deal; it was just going to be a matter of how efficient he could pitch and how much his control could hope to improve. Jimenez only threw 56% of his pitches for strikes, which is still well below where it should be for any dominant major leaguer. However, his dominance asserted itself well against a young and somewhat scary lineup in a hitter's park--the lack of HRs is very promising. I will take this start (obviously) from Jimenez any day, but I'm looking for him to get over 60% pitches for strikes before I'm buying him as an every-start pitcher. No skepticism here, though.
2. Jarrod Washburn @ MIN - W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 8
If you don't know exactly what Washburn is good for by now, don't know what to tell you. Over the last five years, his FIP (predictive ERA) has been no lower than 4.35, no higher than 4.78. His K/9 never lower than 4.8, never higher than 5.3 (not very useful in either case). He throws five pitches, but none of them with any real dominance, and admittedly there are still plenty of questions about Minnesota's lineup, especially without Mauer. The only X-factor here is the famed Contract Year, but Washburn doesn't have the stuff to make that kind of difference. Don't buy.
3. Kyle Davies @ CHW - ND, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 6
Those 8 K's are a career high for the former bigshot Braves prospect, and his career 1.48 K/BB is likely to rear its head sooner than later. Still, Davies is at least on the radar now; he had a super-hot September and is picking up right where he left off. Although his 4.1 pitches per batter faced is straining a bit, 65% of pitches for strikes with only three base hits means he was carving up the strike zone. If Davies can provide a reasonable bridge from Meche and Greinke to the bottom of the rotation, then once Hochevar is ready this team could be showing some marked improvement. For now, just watch closely.
4. Kevin Millwood v CLE - W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Skepticism: 4
I like Millwood for a few reasons: first, his .366 BABIP last year indicates a pitcher who is likely to show significant improvement just by being less unlucky. Millwood's FIP of 4.02 was way behind his actual ERA of 5.07, and his ERA should be much closer to the former this year. Second, he lost 15 pounds in the offseason, which always bodes well for stamina. Third, he's got a machine of offensive destruction providing him run support. A mediocre GB/FB rate has always been a problem for him but this start is a definite indication that he could be a fantasy-relevant pitcher again this year--just not an ace.
5. Kyle Lohse v PIT - W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 5
Lohse is more and more establishing himself as a reliable sniper start option who is not going to get himself into tons of trouble. An exceptional 65% pitches for strikes while maintaining a sub-1.00 WHIP is not even the most impressive part of his start--that would be the fantastic 14:3 GB/FB rate. Lohse's Sunday start against Houston (another team he's had a lot of success against) might be the last one he sees on the waiver wire of many leagues.
Hope the first week of the season is treating you well. Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta!
~Evan the Censor
Rating the Skepticism Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
A few days ago we rated the Concern Level of some major league aces who sputtered out of the gate. Let's turn the tables now and rate the Skepticism Level for some guys who may not even have been drafted in your fantasy league, but look like some of the best in the majors in this short season. For this rating, 10 means "not a chance" and 1 means "this guy is for real."
1. Ubaldo Jimenez @ ARI - W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 2
This is the easiest one on the list--I already knew that the fastest fastball in the majors was the real deal; it was just going to be a matter of how efficient he could pitch and how much his control could hope to improve. Jimenez only threw 56% of his pitches for strikes, which is still well below where it should be for any dominant major leaguer. However, his dominance asserted itself well against a young and somewhat scary lineup in a hitter's park--the lack of HRs is very promising. I will take this start (obviously) from Jimenez any day, but I'm looking for him to get over 60% pitches for strikes before I'm buying him as an every-start pitcher. No skepticism here, though.
2. Jarrod Washburn @ MIN - W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 8
If you don't know exactly what Washburn is good for by now, don't know what to tell you. Over the last five years, his FIP (predictive ERA) has been no lower than 4.35, no higher than 4.78. His K/9 never lower than 4.8, never higher than 5.3 (not very useful in either case). He throws five pitches, but none of them with any real dominance, and admittedly there are still plenty of questions about Minnesota's lineup, especially without Mauer. The only X-factor here is the famed Contract Year, but Washburn doesn't have the stuff to make that kind of difference. Don't buy.
3. Kyle Davies @ CHW - ND, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 6
Those 8 K's are a career high for the former bigshot Braves prospect, and his career 1.48 K/BB is likely to rear its head sooner than later. Still, Davies is at least on the radar now; he had a super-hot September and is picking up right where he left off. Although his 4.1 pitches per batter faced is straining a bit, 65% of pitches for strikes with only three base hits means he was carving up the strike zone. If Davies can provide a reasonable bridge from Meche and Greinke to the bottom of the rotation, then once Hochevar is ready this team could be showing some marked improvement. For now, just watch closely.
4. Kevin Millwood v CLE - W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Skepticism: 4
I like Millwood for a few reasons: first, his .366 BABIP last year indicates a pitcher who is likely to show significant improvement just by being less unlucky. Millwood's FIP of 4.02 was way behind his actual ERA of 5.07, and his ERA should be much closer to the former this year. Second, he lost 15 pounds in the offseason, which always bodes well for stamina. Third, he's got a machine of offensive destruction providing him run support. A mediocre GB/FB rate has always been a problem for him but this start is a definite indication that he could be a fantasy-relevant pitcher again this year--just not an ace.
5. Kyle Lohse v PIT - W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 5
Lohse is more and more establishing himself as a reliable sniper start option who is not going to get himself into tons of trouble. An exceptional 65% pitches for strikes while maintaining a sub-1.00 WHIP is not even the most impressive part of his start--that would be the fantastic 14:3 GB/FB rate. Lohse's Sunday start against Houston (another team he's had a lot of success against) might be the last one he sees on the waiver wire of many leagues.
Hope the first week of the season is treating you well. Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta!
~Evan the Censor
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