Rating the Concern Level - 4/7/09
The Starting Line
Rating the Concern Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Monday was not exactly the SP ace renaissance that you'd hope for on Opening Day--chances are that no matter who you drafted (unless it was Johan only) you are looking at an ugly first-day line. So now that your team ERA is 6 and your team WHIP is 1.5, let's take a deep breath and look at the five biggest ace meltdowns from Opening Day, and rate the Censor's level of concern from 1 to 10.
CC Sabathia @ BAL - L, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 0 K
Level of Concern: 8
Why am I concerned? Because everyone else in New York sure is. Because a start this bad is amplified 100 times over in the bright lights of the New York media, which was always my biggest concern about Sabathia this year--the Big Apple vultures have eaten up better left-handers than him and forced them into exile, and already the leash has gotten significantly shorter. Sabathia is going to have to prove how well he can pitch in a pressure cooker, because after this train-wreck where he threw an absolutely pathetic 52% of pitches for strikes, every pitch of his next start will be under the microscope. It was the worst statistical start in the entire major leagues on Monday, and even though he was bad last year this is the type of stat line that defines a pitcher who can't find their stuff.
Brandon Webb v COL - ND, 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 6
Definitely some concern here for the same reason as Sabathia--when a pitcher like Webb can't find the strike zone it is problematic, and Webb could only throw 55% of his pitches for strikes. The GB/FB rate is still there (7:4) but Webb needs pitchers to be swinging to be effective, and that can't happen if he's nibbling all over the place. I'm giving Webb a bit more of a pass because he's been so consistent but with the troubling shoulder reports, this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Cliff Lee @ TEX - L, 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Concern: 5
This is more of a concern because it carries on what was an awful spring training, but let's be realistic here--Lee is facing the best offense in baseball in their crazy hitters park, and still showed the control (5.0 K/BB, 67% pitches for strikes) and the efficiency (3.0 pitchers per batter faced, which is very strong) that made him so successful last year--he was just flat out hittable, and got unbelivably unlucky with a .497 game BABIP. I will start worrying about Lee when he starts walking guys (or if he does this against the Athletics or Blue Jays).
Roy Halladay v DET - W, 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 4
Halladay did what he does best--stay in the game and eat innings even when things aren't going well, thus leaving a much more palatable ERA and WHIP than you might have had otherwise. Detroit's offense is very good and Halladay threw almost 70% of his pitches for strikes, which is exceptional. The only concern at all is the strikeouts--his elevated value this draft season comes from the hope and prayer that he can continue the 200 K pace from last year, and this 2.67 K/9 rate is going to cause a bit of hand-wringing.
Justin Verlander @ TOR - L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Level of Concern: 7
I was already concerned about Verlander, and this start confirmed it. I don't have a good feeling at all about how being the ace of a very poor pitching staff is going to sit with a pitcher who has shown major emotional shift tendencies. Verlander's control wasn't as bad as it's been at his lowest points, but a 2:7 GB/FB rate against an average Blue Jays lineup for a guy badly in need of a rebound season does not bode well at all.
I promise next time I join you, we'll focus on some good news! See you then.
~Evan the Censor
Rating the Concern Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Monday was not exactly the SP ace renaissance that you'd hope for on Opening Day--chances are that no matter who you drafted (unless it was Johan only) you are looking at an ugly first-day line. So now that your team ERA is 6 and your team WHIP is 1.5, let's take a deep breath and look at the five biggest ace meltdowns from Opening Day, and rate the Censor's level of concern from 1 to 10.
CC Sabathia @ BAL - L, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 0 K
Level of Concern: 8
Why am I concerned? Because everyone else in New York sure is. Because a start this bad is amplified 100 times over in the bright lights of the New York media, which was always my biggest concern about Sabathia this year--the Big Apple vultures have eaten up better left-handers than him and forced them into exile, and already the leash has gotten significantly shorter. Sabathia is going to have to prove how well he can pitch in a pressure cooker, because after this train-wreck where he threw an absolutely pathetic 52% of pitches for strikes, every pitch of his next start will be under the microscope. It was the worst statistical start in the entire major leagues on Monday, and even though he was bad last year this is the type of stat line that defines a pitcher who can't find their stuff.
Brandon Webb v COL - ND, 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 6
Definitely some concern here for the same reason as Sabathia--when a pitcher like Webb can't find the strike zone it is problematic, and Webb could only throw 55% of his pitches for strikes. The GB/FB rate is still there (7:4) but Webb needs pitchers to be swinging to be effective, and that can't happen if he's nibbling all over the place. I'm giving Webb a bit more of a pass because he's been so consistent but with the troubling shoulder reports, this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Cliff Lee @ TEX - L, 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Concern: 5
This is more of a concern because it carries on what was an awful spring training, but let's be realistic here--Lee is facing the best offense in baseball in their crazy hitters park, and still showed the control (5.0 K/BB, 67% pitches for strikes) and the efficiency (3.0 pitchers per batter faced, which is very strong) that made him so successful last year--he was just flat out hittable, and got unbelivably unlucky with a .497 game BABIP. I will start worrying about Lee when he starts walking guys (or if he does this against the Athletics or Blue Jays).
Roy Halladay v DET - W, 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 4
Halladay did what he does best--stay in the game and eat innings even when things aren't going well, thus leaving a much more palatable ERA and WHIP than you might have had otherwise. Detroit's offense is very good and Halladay threw almost 70% of his pitches for strikes, which is exceptional. The only concern at all is the strikeouts--his elevated value this draft season comes from the hope and prayer that he can continue the 200 K pace from last year, and this 2.67 K/9 rate is going to cause a bit of hand-wringing.
Justin Verlander @ TOR - L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Level of Concern: 7
I was already concerned about Verlander, and this start confirmed it. I don't have a good feeling at all about how being the ace of a very poor pitching staff is going to sit with a pitcher who has shown major emotional shift tendencies. Verlander's control wasn't as bad as it's been at his lowest points, but a 2:7 GB/FB rate against an average Blue Jays lineup for a guy badly in need of a rebound season does not bode well at all.
I promise next time I join you, we'll focus on some good news! See you then.
~Evan the Censor
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