The Starting Line: Joe Saunders - 5/9/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Joe Saunders v KC, 5/9/2009
W, CGSHO, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Saturday's duel between Joe Saunders and phenom Zack Greinke was everything you could have hoped for, including yet another effortless CG by Greinke--albeit in a losing effort, as Saunders was equally dominant across the hill. Saunders threw 101 pitches in nine innings, an extraordinary 3.2 pitches per batter faced, and threw 67% of pitches for strikes while getting 13 GB vs 8 FB. It was a fantastic fantasy start for a pitcher who was everyone's golden boy going into the year, and who has done a fine job anchoring a staff devastated by injuries and Nick Adenhart's passing.
So let me take this opportunity to say that despite a great season and two particularly great starts in the last week--I still do not trust Joe Saunders. And if you've got an owner who is ready to pay for his 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP like he's an ace, start talking trade now before the bottom falls out.
Saunders didn't have much room left on the downside of his 4.68 K/9 rate, one of the ten worst in the majors among ERA qualifying starters last year, but he's found a way to strike out fewer, all the way down to a depressing 4.18 K rate. Saunders is definitely connecting with plenty of bats, and he's hardly the greatest groundball pitcher in the majors--his 1.21 GB/FB rate is good, but not good enough to make up for that abysmal K rate.
So how does he keep his ERA and WHIP? He's a lucky, lucky man. I told you he was a lucky man last year when he posted a BABIP of .267 and had only 8.7% of his FB go for home runs. If you didn't listen then you're probably wanting to laugh in my face now, but observe: luck does strike twice, as Saunders has somehow stumbled on a .249 BABIP and a groovy 6.6% HR/FB rate. Neither of those, of course, are stats he can control, which means there is major regression on the horizon.
There is a very useful stat that I often refer to called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which serves as a sort of ERA predictor based on non-luck and non-fielding factors. Saunders has a very pedestrian FIP of 4.25, almost exactly near the middle of all ERA qualifiers, and his FIP/ERA gap of -1.59 is ninth in the majors. That all translates to a pitcher that I do not want to have on my roster when the regression comes home to roost, and I'm sure you can find an owner who doesn't read my column and is more than happy to pay fifth or sixth round value for these stats. Remember the ultimate goal for trading SPs--you want their best start to be the last one on your roster. With Joe Saunders, this may be your chance.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Joe Saunders v KC, 5/9/2009
W, CGSHO, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Saturday's duel between Joe Saunders and phenom Zack Greinke was everything you could have hoped for, including yet another effortless CG by Greinke--albeit in a losing effort, as Saunders was equally dominant across the hill. Saunders threw 101 pitches in nine innings, an extraordinary 3.2 pitches per batter faced, and threw 67% of pitches for strikes while getting 13 GB vs 8 FB. It was a fantastic fantasy start for a pitcher who was everyone's golden boy going into the year, and who has done a fine job anchoring a staff devastated by injuries and Nick Adenhart's passing.
So let me take this opportunity to say that despite a great season and two particularly great starts in the last week--I still do not trust Joe Saunders. And if you've got an owner who is ready to pay for his 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP like he's an ace, start talking trade now before the bottom falls out.
Saunders didn't have much room left on the downside of his 4.68 K/9 rate, one of the ten worst in the majors among ERA qualifying starters last year, but he's found a way to strike out fewer, all the way down to a depressing 4.18 K rate. Saunders is definitely connecting with plenty of bats, and he's hardly the greatest groundball pitcher in the majors--his 1.21 GB/FB rate is good, but not good enough to make up for that abysmal K rate.
So how does he keep his ERA and WHIP? He's a lucky, lucky man. I told you he was a lucky man last year when he posted a BABIP of .267 and had only 8.7% of his FB go for home runs. If you didn't listen then you're probably wanting to laugh in my face now, but observe: luck does strike twice, as Saunders has somehow stumbled on a .249 BABIP and a groovy 6.6% HR/FB rate. Neither of those, of course, are stats he can control, which means there is major regression on the horizon.
There is a very useful stat that I often refer to called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which serves as a sort of ERA predictor based on non-luck and non-fielding factors. Saunders has a very pedestrian FIP of 4.25, almost exactly near the middle of all ERA qualifiers, and his FIP/ERA gap of -1.59 is ninth in the majors. That all translates to a pitcher that I do not want to have on my roster when the regression comes home to roost, and I'm sure you can find an owner who doesn't read my column and is more than happy to pay fifth or sixth round value for these stats. Remember the ultimate goal for trading SPs--you want their best start to be the last one on your roster. With Joe Saunders, this may be your chance.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Joe Saunders
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