The Starting Line: Brian Bannister - 6/20/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Brian Bannister v STL, 6/20/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K

When Bannister has had positive stretches during his short career (August 2007, April 2008), most analysts have written it off as "Ride it while you can, but there's no way Bannister is this good." When he's been bad--as he was during pretty much the rest of his miserable 2008 after a nice April--it's more a matter of "Well, that's Brian Bannister, cut and forget." But don't look now--other than an ugly week in late May, Bannister is starting to look like a competent major league pitcher.

He's never been a strikeout specialist--this year's 5.53 K/9 rate is actually close to a career high. His BB/9 rate of 2.89 is in lockstep with his career average too. Bannister's problem in 2008--and 16 losses and a 5.76 ERA is definitely a problem--was an unacceptable 0.92 GB/FB rate, and a bit of bad luck with HR/FB, all adding up to an ugly 1.43 HR/9 and a lot of big innings that knocked Bannister out of games early to the tune of only 5.7 IP/start (gotta love the Royals sticking with him for 32 starts though).

Bannister's key improvement this year--a believable one that is not necessarily a "luck" trend--is a significantly increased GB/FB rate, currently at a career high of 1.40. That, along with a more normalized HR/FB, means a lot fewer HR and longer games for Bannister. His BABIP of .298 is at a very healthy level where there's not an implicit fear of hit regression.

A healthy ground ball rate is very important for a low-strikeout pitcher who relies on an 89 mph fastball as Bannister does, and if he can keep this type of GB strength up, he will be able to limit damage much more successfully than he has in the past. Watch that GB/FB closely and if it stays well above 1.0, Bannister is a starter you can take a look at against mediocre offenses--but remember he will never be a fireballing Greinke-type, so avoid overreliance, especially against offenses that could really pound him.

Don't forget that you can e-mail me anytime at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com if there's a specific pitcher of SP stat that you'd like me to write about. Be careful, though--two weeks ago I got a request for Erik Bedard and he hasn't made a start since. The curse of the Censor!

~Evan the Censor