The Starting Line: Rick Porcello - 6/12/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Rick Porcello @ PIT, 6/12/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
You could have known a lot earlier that Porcello was going to be great--if you read my preseason column identifying the top ten minor league pitchers who were going to have a major league impact (not that I want to prop myself up, of course). I had this to say about Porcello, who was #7 on my list: "His upside projects to the Fausto Carmona of 2007." I said that not really expecting that his upside was going to show up in 2009.
Porcello, who won't even turn 21 until after Christmas this year, has a whopping 125 IP of minor league experience--all in 2008 and all in A. With the shakiness at the back of the Tigers rotation, he was kept on the major roster to start the year and pitched exactly like a 20-year-old pitcher to start the season: 9 ER, 5 HR, and 2 losses in his first three starts (all on the road). As he has found his confidence, though, we've seen what makes Porcello great.
It's not the strikeouts, let's make that clear (thus the Carmona reference). Porcello has not struck out more than 5 batters in a game this year and his 5.03 K/9 this year is probably right about what you can expect. He gets batters out in other ways, though: as a stellar control and ground ball pitcher. His pitch efficiency of 3.7 pitches per batter faced is fantastic, as evidenced by the fact that he has yet to top 100 pitches in his 12 starts. Part of that is caution, but the kid gloves obviously aren't that strong if Porcello has pitched deep enough to rack up 7 wins.
But the ground ball numbers, for a kid this young, are really incredible. Porcello's GB rate of 56.0% is sixth in the majors among ERA qualifiers, and he's one of only seven pitchers with a GB/FB rate above 2.0. Contrast this to a guy like Max Scherzer and you know what you're getting: fewer strikeouts, to be sure, but deeper games, lower pitch counts, more wins, and consistency as long as his great sinking fastball is in the right spot.
If you want me to make the craziest statement I could imagine, it's this: after all the sports shows talked about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner, this is the exact type of kid that may be the next to get there. He pitches intelligently, consistently, and does not play with fire--since those first three starts, only 5 HR given up in 50 IP. He's pitching well ahead of his incredibly young age and may win 17 games before he's old enough to legally drink. If Porcello has somehow not been picked up in your league, he should be 100% owned because he's going to be a three-category star with a great career in front of him.
As a reminder--if there are any specific pitchers you'd like covered in this column, please email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com or leave a blog comment. Peace out!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Rick Porcello @ PIT, 6/12/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
You could have known a lot earlier that Porcello was going to be great--if you read my preseason column identifying the top ten minor league pitchers who were going to have a major league impact (not that I want to prop myself up, of course). I had this to say about Porcello, who was #7 on my list: "His upside projects to the Fausto Carmona of 2007." I said that not really expecting that his upside was going to show up in 2009.
Porcello, who won't even turn 21 until after Christmas this year, has a whopping 125 IP of minor league experience--all in 2008 and all in A. With the shakiness at the back of the Tigers rotation, he was kept on the major roster to start the year and pitched exactly like a 20-year-old pitcher to start the season: 9 ER, 5 HR, and 2 losses in his first three starts (all on the road). As he has found his confidence, though, we've seen what makes Porcello great.
It's not the strikeouts, let's make that clear (thus the Carmona reference). Porcello has not struck out more than 5 batters in a game this year and his 5.03 K/9 this year is probably right about what you can expect. He gets batters out in other ways, though: as a stellar control and ground ball pitcher. His pitch efficiency of 3.7 pitches per batter faced is fantastic, as evidenced by the fact that he has yet to top 100 pitches in his 12 starts. Part of that is caution, but the kid gloves obviously aren't that strong if Porcello has pitched deep enough to rack up 7 wins.
But the ground ball numbers, for a kid this young, are really incredible. Porcello's GB rate of 56.0% is sixth in the majors among ERA qualifiers, and he's one of only seven pitchers with a GB/FB rate above 2.0. Contrast this to a guy like Max Scherzer and you know what you're getting: fewer strikeouts, to be sure, but deeper games, lower pitch counts, more wins, and consistency as long as his great sinking fastball is in the right spot.
If you want me to make the craziest statement I could imagine, it's this: after all the sports shows talked about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner, this is the exact type of kid that may be the next to get there. He pitches intelligently, consistently, and does not play with fire--since those first three starts, only 5 HR given up in 50 IP. He's pitching well ahead of his incredibly young age and may win 17 games before he's old enough to legally drink. If Porcello has somehow not been picked up in your league, he should be 100% owned because he's going to be a three-category star with a great career in front of him.
As a reminder--if there are any specific pitchers you'd like covered in this column, please email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com or leave a blog comment. Peace out!
~Evan the Censor
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