The Starting Line: Chris Carpenter - 6/14/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Chris Carpenter @ CLE, 6/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Anyone who got to watch Cliff Lee pitch today got to see an absolute treat, and hopefully everyone will now shut up about Lee being the "Estaban Loaiza of 2008" as he has fully proven me right--even I didn't think he'd get his ERA back down to 2.88 this soon. But that's not what I want to talk about, and to be honest I don't even want to talk about Carpenter all that much either.
Carpenter is a great pitcher with incredible fastball location and a mean slider and curveball. He's been fantastic this year; coming into Sunday's game his ERA was a remarkable 1.23 and everyone proclaimed that the 2005 Cy Young winner was back in full form. And while I think he's a great pitcher, there was one statistic in his 2009 portfolio that I could not get past: HR/FB. In 2009, Chris Carpenter had only given up one home run in seven starts--an unbelievable HR/FB rate of 2.9%. That is most definitely not sustainable.
HR/FB is not a perfectly regressing stat like BABIP, especially for pitchers in parks that are very large or very small. But in general, you expect to see 7-10% of fly balls go for home runs. When you have a pitcher who is giving up fly balls, but none of them are leaving the yard, you know that there is trouble coming. Wandy Rodriguez certainly proved to be the poster child for this, giving up four homers in one start after only giving up in his first 11. So who are some other pitchers that you should be worried about their unsustainably low HR/FB?
Let's start with Jair Jurrjens. His GB/FB rate is under one, and he's been able to stay out of trouble with a tasty 4.1% HR/FB. That won't last and will hurt more with his lack of groundballs. Chad Billingsley is another candidate--his 7.5% career HR/FB rate has stayed at 2.6% so far this year which has sure helped his 2.73 ERA, but he's due to give up about ten home runs over the next six weeks. And blasphemy--yes, Zack Greinke is going to have some trouble later this year as well. His career HR/FB rate of 9.1% and career GB/FB rate of 0.95 should translate to about 2o HR in a season--and Greinke sits at 2 HR allowed in 2009.
This is no reason to sell high or give up on any of these three pitchers, or Carpenter for that matter. But understand that their miniscule ERAs are not fully reflective of the pitcher they are, and that quite a few of their pitches are overdue to leave the yard. I want Carpenter on my team, without question, but I also know that there's a full point or more of ERA coming home to roost, and the 2 HR allowed on Sunday are the beginning of that normalcy.
Thanks for reading,
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Chris Carpenter @ CLE, 6/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Anyone who got to watch Cliff Lee pitch today got to see an absolute treat, and hopefully everyone will now shut up about Lee being the "Estaban Loaiza of 2008" as he has fully proven me right--even I didn't think he'd get his ERA back down to 2.88 this soon. But that's not what I want to talk about, and to be honest I don't even want to talk about Carpenter all that much either.
Carpenter is a great pitcher with incredible fastball location and a mean slider and curveball. He's been fantastic this year; coming into Sunday's game his ERA was a remarkable 1.23 and everyone proclaimed that the 2005 Cy Young winner was back in full form. And while I think he's a great pitcher, there was one statistic in his 2009 portfolio that I could not get past: HR/FB. In 2009, Chris Carpenter had only given up one home run in seven starts--an unbelievable HR/FB rate of 2.9%. That is most definitely not sustainable.
HR/FB is not a perfectly regressing stat like BABIP, especially for pitchers in parks that are very large or very small. But in general, you expect to see 7-10% of fly balls go for home runs. When you have a pitcher who is giving up fly balls, but none of them are leaving the yard, you know that there is trouble coming. Wandy Rodriguez certainly proved to be the poster child for this, giving up four homers in one start after only giving up in his first 11. So who are some other pitchers that you should be worried about their unsustainably low HR/FB?
Let's start with Jair Jurrjens. His GB/FB rate is under one, and he's been able to stay out of trouble with a tasty 4.1% HR/FB. That won't last and will hurt more with his lack of groundballs. Chad Billingsley is another candidate--his 7.5% career HR/FB rate has stayed at 2.6% so far this year which has sure helped his 2.73 ERA, but he's due to give up about ten home runs over the next six weeks. And blasphemy--yes, Zack Greinke is going to have some trouble later this year as well. His career HR/FB rate of 9.1% and career GB/FB rate of 0.95 should translate to about 2o HR in a season--and Greinke sits at 2 HR allowed in 2009.
This is no reason to sell high or give up on any of these three pitchers, or Carpenter for that matter. But understand that their miniscule ERAs are not fully reflective of the pitcher they are, and that quite a few of their pitches are overdue to leave the yard. I want Carpenter on my team, without question, but I also know that there's a full point or more of ERA coming home to roost, and the 2 HR allowed on Sunday are the beginning of that normalcy.
Thanks for reading,
~Evan the Censor
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