Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:

2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM

Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.

Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.

Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET

These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.

Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jason Marquis - 7/6/2009

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through.

First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants.

And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in.

Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge.

Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008.

~Evan the Censor~