Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:

2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM

Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.

Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.

Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET

These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.

Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ted Lilly - 7/11/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ted Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning.

But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston.

Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands.

A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities!

~Evan the Censor