The Starting Line: Ted Lilly - 7/11/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Ted Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning.
But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston.
Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands.
A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Ted Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning.
But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston.
Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands.
A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities!
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Ted Lilly
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