Stat SPaz Week, Day 1: K/BB
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
The Censor is taking a break from analysis of individual pitchers for a few days (though I'm always happy to take requests for specific pitcher analysis via e-mail) to become a complete, unabashed stat whore. At this point of the season, which we'll refer to roughly as the "midway" point, it's time to see who the top performers, the surprises, and the obvious overachievers are. In doing so, I'm going to look at three of my favorite skill stats, and three of my favorite "luck stats", looking at the top and the bottom five in each category, and we'll see what type of information we can glean.
Today we start with my #1 favorite statistic for analyzing the quality of starting pitching: K/BB, otherwise known as strikeout to walk rate. I want my pitchers to do two things really well: dominate hitters and rack up strikeouts, and control the strike zone, thus keeping their WHIP (and by extension their ERA) down. K/BB measures the ability of a pitcher to dominate the strike zone while still keeping patient hitters off the bases. As some background, I will highlight the best and the worst of the stats I review over the five previous seasons (limited to ERA-qualifying starters). Here is the recent history of K/BB:
2004
Best: 8.25 - Ben Sheets, MIL
Worst: 0.85 - Kirk Reuter, SF
2005
Best: 7.89 - Carlos Silva, MIN
Worst: 1.19 - Horacio Ramirez, ATL
2006
Best: 6.54 - Curt Schilling, BOS
Worst: 1.01 - Steve Trachsel, NYM
2007
Best: 5.65 - CC Sabathia, CLE
Worst: 1.14 - Livan Hernandez, ARI
2008
Best: 5.28 - Roy Halladay, TOR
Worst: 1.06 - Daniel Cabrera, BAL
Interesting to see the top end of the K/BB range declining sharply every year for quite a few years now. That pattern may be changing in 2009. Here are the best and worst K/BB in 2009:
Best 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 7.61 - Dan Haren, ARI
2. 6.24 - Roy Halladay, TOR
3. 5.91 - Javier Vazquez, ATL
4. 5.67 - Zack Greinke, KC
5. 4.74 - Cole Hamels, PHI
These are five elite pitchers, and their leadership in this statistic only underscores their fantasy ace status. Haren has a scary-low BABIP (a story for another day) but even if his luck doesn't quite hold up, clearly he has all kinds of skills to back up a large part of his performance. The real story is Vazquez who is posting a career-high K/9 and career-low BB/9--an absolutely phenomenal feat considering he is now in his 12th year in the majors. Every statistical indicator shows he is pitching better than his 2.95 ERA and his absence from the All-Star team was a travesty. If someone thinks they're smart to sell him high, don't be afraid to pay for him, he's an ace. If you have an ignorant owner who will unload Hamels and his 4.72 ERA, he's only going to get better.
Worst 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 1.04 - Trevor Cahill, OAK
2. 1.17 - Jeff Suppan, MIL
3. 1.19 - Micah Owings, CIN
4. 1.22 - Jon Garland, ARI
5. 1.30 - John Lannan, WAS
No surprise here--if you need more evidence that this is a fantasy skill stat, take a look at five guys who belong on nobody's fantasy team. No surprises here. Obviously it's time to give up on Owings (and you're a year late) but the only real disappointment here to me is Cahill--a rookie, to be fair, and one who never projected to be a high-K guy, but his total and complete lack of plate dominance is a bit troubling. He seems to almost pitch scared at times, afraid to challenge hitters and trying way too hard to finesse his way out of every situation. There is plenty of talent there, and his name isn't one to forget just yet. The rest of these guys should have been forgotten in fantasy-land long ago.
Back tomorrow with more adventures in the land of the stat spaz!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
The Censor is taking a break from analysis of individual pitchers for a few days (though I'm always happy to take requests for specific pitcher analysis via e-mail) to become a complete, unabashed stat whore. At this point of the season, which we'll refer to roughly as the "midway" point, it's time to see who the top performers, the surprises, and the obvious overachievers are. In doing so, I'm going to look at three of my favorite skill stats, and three of my favorite "luck stats", looking at the top and the bottom five in each category, and we'll see what type of information we can glean.
Today we start with my #1 favorite statistic for analyzing the quality of starting pitching: K/BB, otherwise known as strikeout to walk rate. I want my pitchers to do two things really well: dominate hitters and rack up strikeouts, and control the strike zone, thus keeping their WHIP (and by extension their ERA) down. K/BB measures the ability of a pitcher to dominate the strike zone while still keeping patient hitters off the bases. As some background, I will highlight the best and the worst of the stats I review over the five previous seasons (limited to ERA-qualifying starters). Here is the recent history of K/BB:
2004
Best: 8.25 - Ben Sheets, MIL
Worst: 0.85 - Kirk Reuter, SF
2005
Best: 7.89 - Carlos Silva, MIN
Worst: 1.19 - Horacio Ramirez, ATL
2006
Best: 6.54 - Curt Schilling, BOS
Worst: 1.01 - Steve Trachsel, NYM
2007
Best: 5.65 - CC Sabathia, CLE
Worst: 1.14 - Livan Hernandez, ARI
2008
Best: 5.28 - Roy Halladay, TOR
Worst: 1.06 - Daniel Cabrera, BAL
Interesting to see the top end of the K/BB range declining sharply every year for quite a few years now. That pattern may be changing in 2009. Here are the best and worst K/BB in 2009:
Best 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 7.61 - Dan Haren, ARI
2. 6.24 - Roy Halladay, TOR
3. 5.91 - Javier Vazquez, ATL
4. 5.67 - Zack Greinke, KC
5. 4.74 - Cole Hamels, PHI
These are five elite pitchers, and their leadership in this statistic only underscores their fantasy ace status. Haren has a scary-low BABIP (a story for another day) but even if his luck doesn't quite hold up, clearly he has all kinds of skills to back up a large part of his performance. The real story is Vazquez who is posting a career-high K/9 and career-low BB/9--an absolutely phenomenal feat considering he is now in his 12th year in the majors. Every statistical indicator shows he is pitching better than his 2.95 ERA and his absence from the All-Star team was a travesty. If someone thinks they're smart to sell him high, don't be afraid to pay for him, he's an ace. If you have an ignorant owner who will unload Hamels and his 4.72 ERA, he's only going to get better.
Worst 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 1.04 - Trevor Cahill, OAK
2. 1.17 - Jeff Suppan, MIL
3. 1.19 - Micah Owings, CIN
4. 1.22 - Jon Garland, ARI
5. 1.30 - John Lannan, WAS
No surprise here--if you need more evidence that this is a fantasy skill stat, take a look at five guys who belong on nobody's fantasy team. No surprises here. Obviously it's time to give up on Owings (and you're a year late) but the only real disappointment here to me is Cahill--a rookie, to be fair, and one who never projected to be a high-K guy, but his total and complete lack of plate dominance is a bit troubling. He seems to almost pitch scared at times, afraid to challenge hitters and trying way too hard to finesse his way out of every situation. There is plenty of talent there, and his name isn't one to forget just yet. The rest of these guys should have been forgotten in fantasy-land long ago.
Back tomorrow with more adventures in the land of the stat spaz!
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, K/BB, Roy Halladay, Trevor Cahill
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