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The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.com Brian Bannister v STL, 6/20/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K When Bannister has had positive stretches during his short career (August 2007, April 2008), most analysts have written it off as "Ride it while you can, but there's no way Bannister is this good." When he's been bad--as he was during pretty much the rest of his miserable 2008 after a nice April--it's more a matter of "Well, that's Brian Bannister, cut and forget." But don't look now--other than an ugly week in late May, Bannister is starting to look like a competent major league pitcher. He's never been a strikeout specialist--this year's 5.53 K/9 rate is actually close to a career high. His BB/9 rate of 2.89 is in lockstep with his career average too. Bannister's problem in 2008--and 16 losses and a 5.76 ERA is definitely a problem--was an unacceptable 0.92 GB/FB rate, and a bit of bad luck with HR/FB, all adding up to an ugly 1.43 HR/9 and a lot of big innings that knocked Bannister out of games early to the tune of only 5.7 IP/start (gotta love the Royals sticking with him for 32 starts though). Bannister's key improvement this year--a believable one that is not necessarily a "luck" trend--is a significantly increased GB/FB rate, currently at a career high of 1.40. That, along with a more normalized HR/FB, means a lot fewer HR and longer games for Bannister. His BABIP of .298 is at a very healthy level where there's not an implicit fear of hit regression. A healthy ground ball rate is very important for a low-strikeout pitcher who relies on an 89 mph fastball as Bannister does, and if he can keep this type of GB strength up, he will be able to limit damage much more successfully than he has in the past. Watch that GB/FB closely and if it stays well above 1.0, Bannister is a starter you can take a look at against mediocre offenses--but remember he will never be a fireballing Greinke-type, so avoid overreliance, especially against offenses that could really pound him. Don't forget that you can e-mail me anytime at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com if there's a specific pitcher of SP stat that you'd like me to write about. Be careful, though--two weeks ago I got a request for Erik Bedard and he hasn't made a start since. The curse of the Censor! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Brian Bannister
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comChris Carpenter @ CLE, 6/14/2009 L, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K Anyone who got to watch Cliff Lee pitch today got to see an absolute treat, and hopefully everyone will now shut up about Lee being the "Estaban Loaiza of 2008" as he has fully proven me right--even I didn't think he'd get his ERA back down to 2.88 this soon. But that's not what I want to talk about, and to be honest I don't even want to talk about Carpenter all that much either. Carpenter is a great pitcher with incredible fastball location and a mean slider and curveball. He's been fantastic this year; coming into Sunday's game his ERA was a remarkable 1.23 and everyone proclaimed that the 2005 Cy Young winner was back in full form. And while I think he's a great pitcher, there was one statistic in his 2009 portfolio that I could not get past: HR/FB. In 2009, Chris Carpenter had only given up one home run in seven starts--an unbelievable HR/FB rate of 2.9%. That is most definitely not sustainable. HR/FB is not a perfectly regressing stat like BABIP, especially for pitchers in parks that are very large or very small. But in general, you expect to see 7-10% of fly balls go for home runs. When you have a pitcher who is giving up fly balls, but none of them are leaving the yard, you know that there is trouble coming. Wandy Rodriguez certainly proved to be the poster child for this, giving up four homers in one start after only giving up in his first 11. So who are some other pitchers that you should be worried about their unsustainably low HR/FB? Let's start with Jair Jurrjens. His GB/FB rate is under one, and he's been able to stay out of trouble with a tasty 4.1% HR/FB. That won't last and will hurt more with his lack of groundballs. Chad Billingsley is another candidate--his 7.5% career HR/FB rate has stayed at 2.6% so far this year which has sure helped his 2.73 ERA, but he's due to give up about ten home runs over the next six weeks. And blasphemy--yes, Zack Greinke is going to have some trouble later this year as well. His career HR/FB rate of 9.1% and career GB/FB rate of 0.95 should translate to about 2o HR in a season--and Greinke sits at 2 HR allowed in 2009. This is no reason to sell high or give up on any of these three pitchers, or Carpenter for that matter. But understand that their miniscule ERAs are not fully reflective of the pitcher they are, and that quite a few of their pitches are overdue to leave the yard. I want Carpenter on my team, without question, but I also know that there's a full point or more of ERA coming home to roost, and the 2 HR allowed on Sunday are the beginning of that normalcy. Thanks for reading, ~Evan the Censor Labels: Chris Carpenter
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.comRick Porcello @ PIT, 6/12/2009 W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K You could have known a lot earlier that Porcello was going to be great--if you read my preseason column identifying the top ten minor league pitchers who were going to have a major league impact (not that I want to prop myself up, of course). I had this to say about Porcello, who was #7 on my list: "His upside projects to the Fausto Carmona of 2007." I said that not really expecting that his upside was going to show up in 2009. Porcello, who won't even turn 21 until after Christmas this year, has a whopping 125 IP of minor league experience--all in 2008 and all in A. With the shakiness at the back of the Tigers rotation, he was kept on the major roster to start the year and pitched exactly like a 20-year-old pitcher to start the season: 9 ER, 5 HR, and 2 losses in his first three starts (all on the road). As he has found his confidence, though, we've seen what makes Porcello great. It's not the strikeouts, let's make that clear (thus the Carmona reference). Porcello has not struck out more than 5 batters in a game this year and his 5.03 K/9 this year is probably right about what you can expect. He gets batters out in other ways, though: as a stellar control and ground ball pitcher. His pitch efficiency of 3.7 pitches per batter faced is fantastic, as evidenced by the fact that he has yet to top 100 pitches in his 12 starts. Part of that is caution, but the kid gloves obviously aren't that strong if Porcello has pitched deep enough to rack up 7 wins. But the ground ball numbers, for a kid this young, are really incredible. Porcello's GB rate of 56.0% is sixth in the majors among ERA qualifiers, and he's one of only seven pitchers with a GB/FB rate above 2.0. Contrast this to a guy like Max Scherzer and you know what you're getting: fewer strikeouts, to be sure, but deeper games, lower pitch counts, more wins, and consistency as long as his great sinking fastball is in the right spot. If you want me to make the craziest statement I could imagine, it's this: after all the sports shows talked about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner, this is the exact type of kid that may be the next to get there. He pitches intelligently, consistently, and does not play with fire--since those first three starts, only 5 HR given up in 50 IP. He's pitching well ahead of his incredibly young age and may win 17 games before he's old enough to legally drink. If Porcello has somehow not been picked up in your league, he should be 100% owned because he's going to be a three-category star with a great career in front of him. As a reminder--if there are any specific pitchers you'd like covered in this column, please email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com or leave a blog comment. Peace out! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Rick Porcello
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comKevin Slowey @ SEA, 6/7/2009 L, 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K I actually watched the Mariners-Twins game on Sunday afternoon intending to write a blog about Erik Bedard, who has proven himself to be every bit the exceptional value pick that I thought he would be and still has one of the illest curveballs in baseball. But I think the more important SP-related take from this game is a bit of regret on my part--I thought this may be the year that Slowey established himself as a true fantasy ace, but the leaks that were apparent on Sunday make me think I might have been a year too early. Kevin Slowey is a control pitcher--in fact, he is the epitome of control pitchers. The ML-leading 0.93 BB/9 Slowey posted prior to Sunday's start, if maintained, would be the first sub-1.00 BB/9 since Carlos Silva in 2005. In fact, no one other than Greg Maddux has posted a BB/9 lower than 1.24 since 2005--as a reference, Cliff Lee led the majors last year with a 1.37 BB/9. Slowey isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher--his 6.7 career K/9 is good, not great--and he is definitely not a groundball pitcher; his 0.74 GB/FB is actually seventh-lowest in the majors. What he's able to do is scatter base hits and because he makes almost no location mistakes, he can limit damage and keep a high strand rate--very reminiscent of Tom Glavine in his prime. The problem today was that Slowey ran into CB Bucknor, a home plate umpire with a strike zone the size of a index card. Bucknor was completely fair, consistently denying Erik Bedard the outside corner, but Bedard can always go back to his dynamite curveball. Slowey doesn't have the same strikeout pitch that can overcome a tight strike zone, and once his pitch counts started running up you could see some anxiety creep in. For Slowey to actually walk two batters in a game is incredible (that brings his total to 9 for the entire season) but the 10 hits is a clear consequence of not being able to use the outside part of the strike zone the way he'd like, and it happened against a really awful Seattle offense that has been floundering mightily. I think that by the end of the year, Slowey will have 12 or 13 wins, and a WHIP around 1.20 with an ERA close to the 3.99 he put up last year--but just like 2008, he will probably average at least 1.0 H/IP, and until he can ramp up his underused offspeed pitches to really cut batters off the way Bedard does with his curveball, he's going to run into disasters like this now and then. A control pitcher like Slowey comes around rarely, but the translation to real ace is a level that Slowey is clearly not quite ready for. Thanks for reading--all comments, questions, vulgar flames, and requests for discussion of specific pitchers to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great week! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Kevin Slowey
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comNow that the season is roughly one-third in the books, we have a healthy enough sample size to determine who is for real, and who is putting up numbers that can only be described as a kind mirage. To that end, here are three pitchers for whom luck has been on their side, and who can be reasonably expected to see a downturn in the very near future. Kevin Millwood - There's no possible way a sub-3.00 ERA can continue for Millwood, and in fact he's a prime candidate to put up a +4 the rest of the season. Millwood is missing disaster with all kinds of good fortune, but his .262 BABIP is due for an increase and his relatively high walk numbers mean that the WHIP damage could be substantial. Millwood is putting up a career-low K/9 of 5.08--pretty incredible when you consider he's got thirteen years of career behind him--and giving up HR at an ugly 1.27 HR/9 rate, far above his career high. When more hits start falling against him, as they will, his ERA is due for a sharp rise. Sell high. Josh Outman - Outman has been a great story through his first nine starts for the uber-young Athletics rotation, outpitching all the other highly touted prospects surrounding him. In his first nine starts, he's put up a 3.02 ERA and a strong 7.0 K/9. However, he's also been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck: only Scott Feldman has a lower BABIP than Outman's incredible .242. He has been putting runners on the bases at a good clip thanks to his ugly 3.7 BB/9 and 59% of pitches thrown for strikes, but has been able to strand 78% of those runners by getting balls to drop in the right place. He can't control that forever, and those walks will come home to roost with a healthy ERA increase sooner than later. Matt Cain - I know everyone thinks this kid is the next fantasy ace (and has thought that for three years now)--and in fact, if someone in your league thinks that, get them to overpay for him right now. Cain's walks have always been too high, as they are again (3.7 BB/9) but for some reason his strikeout rate has slowed dramatically, from a career 7.7 K/9 all the way down to 6.7 K/9 this season. His flyball rate still exceeds his groundball rate by quite a bit, and though he's been able to keep his HR/FB very low in the past, if that ratio climbs it's bad news. The bottom line is that there is no way any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP can maintain an ERA under 3.00 for an entire season--Cain will not strand 88% of the runners he puts on base, as he has this year so far. But every league has at least one owner with a Cain mancrush; find that guy and make him pay for these inflated stats. Coming soon--the Censor takes a look at three guys for whom the best part of 2009 is certainly yet to come. Have a great weekend! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Josh Outman, Kevin Millwood, Matt Cain
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