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The Starting LineStat SPaz: BABIP, part 2by Evan "the Censor" Dickens If you joined us for the first part of our BABIP love-fest, hopefully you're on board with the Censor that the BABIP statistic is one of the key luck stats in analyzing starting pitching stats. Now, let's take a look at how it could have been used in 2008 to predict performance, and how it might be useful for 2008. Five ERA-qualifying SPs posted a BABIP under .275 in 2007. Here's how their 2008 season panned out (2007 BABIP in parenthesis): Chris R. Young (.252) - Struggled with injuries and saw ERA rise from 3.12 to 3.96 while putting up a career high walk rate of 4.22 and career high WHIP of 1.29. Brian Bannister (.266) - ERA skyrocketed from 3.87 to 5.76, while WHIP went all the way to 1.49 as Bannister lost 16 games and became a fantasy pariah. A.J. Burnett (.271) - Although he was able to win 18 games and strike out 231 through sheer force of will and surprising health (did someone say contract year?), his ERA and WHIP rose to five-year highs of 4.07 and 1.34. Barry Zito (.272) - Scary to think that this turd might have actually been lucky in 2007 (and most of his career before that; he posted a league-low .254 BABIP in his Cy Young year), but the evidence was all there as his ERA shot to a career-high 5.15 and his WHIP blasted to an unholy 1.60. Ladies and gentleman, the real Barry Zito. Ted Lilly (.272) - Lilly is the one man on this list who did not see much regression, though he did have moderate increases in all his peripherals. Of course, that could have something to do with the fact that his BABIP only rose to .283, so there could be some additional regression yet to come in 2009. Although some of these five, and others in the top ten such as Rich Hill and Fausto Carmona, posted more serious 2008 declines than others, one thing is for sure: none of these pitchers improved, or even closely duplicated, their 2007 ERA and WHIP. With that in mind, here are some unsustainably low BABIPs from 2008--i.e., pitchers you may want to think twice about: Dave Bush (.245) - 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP Armando Galarraga (.247) - 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP Daisuke Matsuzaka (.267) - 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP Jeremy Guthrie (.267) - 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP Joe Saunders (.267) - 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP Gavin Floyd (.268) - 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP Be very, very careful when targeting any of these pitchers in 2009 drafts--you can be relatively certain that you will not be able to duplicate 2008 performance. Tune in soon when the Starting Line returns with the flip side--how to interpret pitchers with unusually high BABIP. Make sure to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta luego! ~Evan the Censor
It's no secret that the Censor is the world's biggest lover of starting pitching, and as such I always do my best to grab at least a couple anchors for my staff in the very early rounds. Maybe you don't feel the same and prefer to draft a staff more from the value perspective. If that's your goal, I've been scouring the most current ADP reports and I've got a seven-man rotation for your fantasy team that I think will have no problem outperforming their draft positions. This staff will get you wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP help across the board and put a value-oriented drafter on the fast track to a league title! Chad Billingsley - 16th SP overall, ADP mid-8th round His stuff is unquestionable--201 Ks good for ninth in the majors--and his 3.14 ERA is undoubtedly impressive for such a young kid in his first full year in the rotation. He's a true ace and should have no problem going for 16 wins again in 2009. I thought he was a bit overhyped at one point, but (false) injury fears have pushed his ADP down to a level where I would love to have him. I can promise there won't be fifteen better fantasy starters this year. Ricky Nolasco - 26th SP overall, ADP early 11th round Nolasco is my kind of pitcher--a control pitcher. Only four pitchers in the majors with 210+ IP had fewer walks than Nolasco's 42 BB in 212.1 IP. He maintains that control while still maintaining a strong 7.9 K/9 rate. He hasn't missed a beat in the spring with a 0.60 ERA, and all he needs is to lower the flyball rate and thus hopefully get his HR/9 down below last year's 1.19 before he's a true bonafide ace. Brett Myers - 30th SP overall, ADP mid-12th round Drafting Myers this low is a great example of how a long stretch of bad performance can leave a negative taste in other owners' mouths that lingers much longer than it should have. Don't be the sucker who can only remember Myers being so bad that he was sent down in the middle of 2008, and forgets that Myers posted a triumphant 3.06 ERA after the break. He is a great source of lower-risk strikeouts at this stage in the draft--he should have no trouble posting another 8.0 K/9 rate as he did in 2005-2007 with the adjustments of 2008 behind him.
Ryan Dempster - 39th SP overall, ADP mid-14th round There's not much more I can say about Dempster that I don't say in almost every article I write. I think he's the most undervalued pitcher in all of baseball this year. How can a sub-3.00 ERA and 8+ K/9 rate, with comfortable peripherals and an above-average groundball rate, pitching for a great team who will guarantee him 15 wins, fall below the 10th round? If you let him slip out of your grasp you will regret it all year. Gil Meche - 59th SP overall, ADP late 20th round Remember when Meche's 5-year, $55 million deal seemed unreasonable? Carlos Silva and Barry Zito have done their part to make it look much better, but Meche's pitching has improved over the last two years, and he has now been named the Opening Day starter again for the Royals. Like every pitcher on this value staff, his K/9 rate is fantastic, and he had a fantastic second half--posting 11 wins and a 3.09 ERA over the last four months. Expect that level of pitching to continue, making this is a great value position for Meche. Chris Carpenter - 64th SP overall, ADP late 22nd round This could be the pick that makes your draft. Carpenter is two years removed from pitching at a Cy Young level for two straight years (he should have won in 2006). Now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery he is healthy and ready to contribute. So far in spring he's thrown nineteen innings with no earned runs, and in his most recent appearance he struck out six and walked none in five innings. Everything is working: the fastball, the 87 mph slider, and the solid curveball. Rotowire's most recent player update says "He looks ready." You think? Look for a rapid rise from this position in the final week, but he could still be a solid No. 2 fantasy pitcher by the time the season is done. Ubaldo Jimenez - 70th SP overall, ADP mid-25th round High-risk? No doubt. But the reward here is just as high, especially this late in a draft. After a disastrous first half, Jimenez pitched himself all the way down to a 3.99 ERA for the year. The walk rate one of the highest in the majors so he will always be WHIP-challenged, but his stuff is so sick it almost seems wrong--in an exhibition game against Milwaukee, he broke eight bats. The groundball rate is improving and the K/9 has incredible upside, and you just won't find a harder-throwing pitcher in the majors. When you take him this late, if it doesn't work out, you cut your losses and shrug your shoulders. That's a staff that a value drafter can go to war with! Good luck in your last minute drafts, and if you have questions about any other starting pitchers, don't forget to e-mail me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Good luck! ~Evan the Censor
The Starting Line
Stat SPaz: BABIP, part 1
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens spaz -noun Slang.
1. a grotesquely awkward person. 2. an eccentric person. 3. someone who enjoys starting pitching stats way too much.
Starting pitchers are generally drafted in fantasy leagues to help you win four categories: wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Of course, most of these standard fantasy categories are terrible measurements of a pitcher's actual talent level and potential to contribute to your team, which is why hardcore SP dorks like me use a whole array of peripheral sabermetric stats to isolate true pitching talent from the lies that basic statistics can tell. This is the first edition of an ongoing column I will be writing on those peripheral stats. You will learn which ratios identify talent, and which identify luck. The first statistic we will be addressing is, most definitely, the latter: batting average on balls in play, or BABIP. BABIP is fairly easy to define. It is similar to normal batting averages--however, home runs are not considered for either portion of the ratio, and the denominator also discards strikeouts and adds back sacrifice flies. As an example, I'll take a random game from Johan Santana's game log: 8/12 against the Nationals. Santana faced 30 batters in 7 innings, giving up 8 hits, 1 HR, and 2 BB, while striking out 6. BABIP is calculated as hits minus HR (7) divided by AB minus K & HR (28 - 6 - 1 = 21) -- equaling a .333 BABIP, as opposed to actual BA given up, which would be 8 hits / 28 AB = .285. So that's the calculation. Now the importance--BABIP is the most fluky, non-skill-related SP statistic that you can see. It is calculated the same way for hitters, but is not nearly as fluky and regression-prone for hitters. It has been demonstrated time and time again that all starting pitchers regress to a BABIP close to .300. There are natural inclinations to think this wouldn't be the case for certain types of pitchers, so let's look at some 2008 statistics (limited to ERA qualifiers) to see if this bears out. For now I'm covering up all the names. First, let's look at the numbers. Of the 88 ERA qualifiers (at least 162 IP), the lowest BABIP posted was .245. If regression holds true, this pitcher was extremely lucky with the distribution of balls in play and is prone to have many more of those balls in play turn into base hits. Beware a big downswing coming. The highest BABIP posted was a .366, which indicates a serious run of bad luck and a pitcher who is probably at least a bit better than his numbers and could have some value at a cheap price. The median BABIP was .302, which is right in line with where regression should take them. In the cases, very often what you see is what you get. The natural questions when looking for holes in the usage of BABIP to determine fluky pitchers--wouldn't BABIP naturally swing for SPs based on their home run rate, since home runs are not considered? Wouldn't high-strikeout pitchers have a higher BABIP? Wouldn't a higher groundball rate lead to a lower BABIP? Let's look at the top five and bottom five in these categories in 2008: Top 5 (lowest) HR/9 rates BABIP: .313, .305, .306, .297, .311 = .306 average BABIPBottom 5 (highest) HR/9 rates BABIP: .326, .317, .289, .301, .309 = .308 average BABIPTop 5 K/9 rates BABIP: .313, .306, .328, .323, .306 = .315 average BABIPBottom 5 K/9 rates BABIP: .345, .308, .289, .315, .327 = .317 average BABIPTop 5 GB% BABIP: .297, .287, .308, .306, .273 = .294 average BABIP
Bottom 5 GB% BABIP: .280, .306, .290, .304, .283 = .293 average BABIP
Although these individual samples as a whole are fairly fluky, they demonstrate that even the largest differences in these seemingly relevant categories mean absolutely nothing when it comes to BABIP. What matters, is really one thing: fluky luck. There is plenty of other published research on the luck nature of BABIP, but I think enough of a case is made here without belaboring the point. If we can all agree that BABIP is a stat that can identify luck, then the next step is applying it to 2008 seasons--and seeing how we can identify the under and the overvalued SPs by doing so. And that will be the subject of my next column! See you soon, ~Evan the Censor
The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Our final stop around the major leagues takes us to the Censor's collision of heart vs. head. Four teams that I hate and root against feverishly every single year, and one that I dearly love and treasure beyond all rational analysis. So having said that, who do you think I'm going to rank as the best rotation in the division?
New York Mets
1. Johan Santana
2. John Maine
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. Oliver Perez
5. Freddy Garcia
The Line: There's a hefty dose of uncertainty around the bottom half of the rotation, but my heart leaps up when I behold the best SP in all of baseball. Santana has proven before that he has the ability to make an entire team and rotation better when he puts them on his shoulders and the young pitchers of the Mets will need that more than ever. Now he's dodged the WBC and is coming off what some call a "disappointing" season where all he did was post a career-year low ERA of 2.53 and lead the major leagues in quality starts with 28--imagine 28 quality starts again, with the renewed Mets bullpen, and you see why he is still obviously the first SP off the board. It's hard to remember that Maine pitched like an All-Star for the first half of 2007--that may have been over his head, but the response to last year's disappointing season in mock drafts has been precipitous. With a career 7.71 K/9, there is nothing but value for him in the 20th or 21st round. I wish I loved Pelfrey the way I used to but it's tough to understand how he could take 100 innings of 10.0 K/9 in the minors, and translate it to a major league career rate of 5.13 K/9. His control is getting much better and he's really learning how to be a ground ball pitcher, but he is not exactly a hot sleeper without the promise of more than 120 Ks. Perez is the real wildcard--among other gaudy 2008 stats, he boasts the third-highest BB/9 and the lowest GB/FB ratio in the majors. He also has a career K/9 of 8.35 and can be amazing in spurts, but his offspeed pitches dropped under 4% of total pitches last year and when he blows up, it's usually not only violent and ugly, but usually in easy matchups against bad teams. I and my fellow Met fans would have rather signed Derek Lowe, but we keep our fingers crossed for upside and talent. Just be careful. The fifth spot is now a question again after Tim Redding's shutdown in spring training, and Garcia is probably the best option--but I'm only saying that because the thought of Livan Hernandez, who could not break a plate glass window with his fastball and posted a hideous 3.35 K/9 last year, makes me ill. The best case scenario is for the young stud Jonathan Niese to be ready sooner than later, but the Mets have a very bad recent history of working young arms successfully into their plans (ask Phil Humber) and Niese has not been stellar so far in spring training. Depending on Redding's health and Perez's mental state, the Mets could be in desperate need of a deadline deal.
Atlanta Braves
1. Derek Lowe
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Tom Glavine
The Line: Those without a dog in the fight would probably be more inclined to call this the best rotation in the division, but hey, a man's got to follow his true love. I sure wish I was writing about Lowe in the paragraph above--he's so durable and consistent and fearless down the stretch and stealthily climbed to a 3.24 ERA with a series of late-season dominant starts. There is no fantasy team that couldn't benefit from him as a nice fourth or fifth starter in the 15th or 16th round. Vazquez is a very different pitcher; for fantasy purposes he's about nothing but the strikeouts with a superb 8.64 K/9 in 2008, but mixing that with 16 losses and an icky 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, his highest since 2000. He's being drafted higher than he should be on the basis of the likely NL-transition bump, but be careful because he is never a sure thing. Although Jurrjens led his team in wins and and strikeouts in 2008, that says more about the quality of Atlanta's 2008 staff. He is due for a sophomore slump with his lower strikeout rates and reliance on a mediocre changeup. I'm not drafting him. I'm also not drafting Kawakami because his stuff isn't that strong and it's very difficult to know what to expect a 34-year-old import rookie, and I still have a scar where I drafted Kei Igawa in 2006. Do whatever you want with Glavine. I'm not drafting him because, well, I hate him, and anyway it won't take long before he gives way to the fireballing Tommy Hanson, who quite legitimately could be called the favorite for Rookie of the Year before he even takes the mound. He is worth drafting once you get to the 22nd or 23rd round if he's still around, but be prepared to stash him.
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ
The Line: You can imagine it's hard for a Mets fan to target a Phillies player for any reason, but Hamels is just spectactular, now rather obviously one of the top five SPs in baseball. He's getting light work in spring since he threw 262 IP last year including playoffs, but don't worry too much. His K/9 will be above 8, he will win at least 16 games, and his breathtaking 1.08 WHIP should be in place again in 2009. As long as his changeup remains this unhittable, he isn't going anywhere and is an ace in every sense of the word. Myers took a half season to remember how to be a starter again (though I still think he would have made a great long-term closer for someone) and threw a 3.06 ERA in the second half, yet he'll still slip well into the middle rounds of the draft. With his strikeout potential, and remembering he's still only 28, there is really solid value potential there. Moyer isn't good for much more than humor when looking at his pitch stats--his 81.2 mph fastball is bested only by Tim Wakefield, and none of his metrics support a repeat of his 3.71 ERA--the downside is closer to 4.80. Blanton has a bit more late and deep fantasy value as an innings-eater and, believe it or not, has still not posted a L since being traded from Oakland. Happ has a lot of sleeper potential if he does in fact win the job, though he will need to work to keep his HR and flyball rates down.
Florida Marlins1. Ricky Nolasco 2. Josh Johnson 3. Chris Volstad 4. Anibal Sanchez 5. Andrew Miller
The Line: Nolasco's growth last year was delightful to watch as so many of his current and former Marlins teammates melted down. He's a genuine major league ace now and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace. His sparkling 1.10 WHIP is bested only by Halladay and Hamels, two top five pitchers, and his K/BB of 4.43 was good for seventh-best in the majors. He's being referred to as a cheaper version of Dan Haren, and while you won't get him much later than the 10th round, that still could be the steal of the draft. Johnson spent most of his major league rookie season in 2006 leading the major leagues in ERA, and after losing a season and a half came back and looked like the phenom he once was. He will never be the control pitcher that Nolasco is, but could strike out quite a few more, and should be available in the 14th or 15th rounds with plenty of upside. The sleeper upside train keeps rolling with Volstad whose 2.88 ERA in 84 IP in 2008 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the too-low 5.55 K/9 and too-high 3.84 BB/9. He's a reasonable late-round sleeper in the 23rd round. With all that potential in this frontloaded rotation, have we really forgotten that Sanchez threw the first no-hitter in years back in 2006? His strikeout potential and raw stuff are great but his injury woes have been devastating so far, making him one to avoid for at least the first few weeks of the season. For the love of all that is holy, don't draft Miller, who is now sporting a 10.57 ERA in spring training and pitches about that well. All I hear about with him is upside, but he's been ghastly every step of the way in Florida. Was this guy really the centerpiece of the Miguel Cabrera trade?
Washington Nationals
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Jordan Zimmerman
The Line: This one's easy: don't draft any of these guys! Lannan is the staff ace and should get an ERA under 4.00 but will struggle to find 10 wins and does not have strikeout upside. Olsen's days as a hot prospect are gone as his K/9 rate continues to plummet, from 8.27 to 6.78 to 5.04 over the last three full seasons. Nothing there for me. Hill is not fantasy-relevant, and is lucky to stay healthy for a month at a time. I'm hearing great things about Zimmerman and his dominance in camp, which makes me interested to see how the Nationals intend to screw up his career. And of course, the best for last: Cabrera has established himself as the biggest waste of fantasy potential in modern history. How can someone with a career fastball average of 94.2 mph be this bad? His BB/9 of 4.50 being 6th-worst in the majors was not a surprise, but his K/9 level plummeting to a miserable 4.75, 11th-worst in the majors, adds up to an absolutely pathetic 1.06 K/BB, a level that only '06 Steve Trachsel has sunk to among all ERA qualifiers in the past four major league seasons. I wouldn't even draft him in a 12-team Nationals-only format.
There we go, our voyage around the major leagues is concluded. Tune in next week as the Censor's new column, Stat SPaz, debuts with a look at BABIP. Until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com, and may I say once more--Go Mets!
~Evan the Censor
The Starting Line SPs Around the Majors - NL Centralby Evan "the Censor" Dickens Writing about the NL West last week was both exhausting and exhilirating, with so much talent and fantasy relevance. The six-team NL Central is a far different animal--only one SP from this division will be drafted in the top fifteen starters, and there will be plenty of no-name DNDs. Take my hand and the Censor will lead you through all the fluff and nonsense to find the pitchers who belong on your fantasy team. Chicago Cubs 1. Carlos Zambrano 2. Ted Lilly 3. Ryan Dempster 4. Rich Harden 5. Sean Marshall The Line: I have this listed according to the current MLB.com depth chart, but it's far different from how I rank them. Although Big Lou, who can't seem to make his mind up about anything, is still undecided about Opening Day, Zambrano is the good money to get the start despite probably being the third-best SP on this team. His strikeouts were declining all year but the 2.84 pre-break ERA can not be ignored. He's only 28 and the upside is still quite high, and he could be a value pick in the 12th round, where he was taken in the FBS expert league. Dempster is the other Opening Day candidate and is severely underrated by fantasy owners who oddly can't wait to forget his amazing 2008 line: 17-6, 2.96 ERA, 8+ K/9 rate. He's a top 20 pitcher in my book but will last later in every draft--he's a total steal after the 11th round. Lilly posts the same gaudy win and strikeout numbers, but also comes with his share of blow-ups due to a much higher flyball rate--he is still a late flier. None of those three match up to Harden who I have proudly put in my top ten because his upside is not 08 Lincecum--it is beyond Lincecum. He is, quite simply, clearly the most talented starting pitcher in the league. His numbers in about 150 IP last year were jaw-dropping: 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.01 K/9. If you pay full value for that, he's going in the second round. Getting him after the 10th round is much more of an injury discount than is reasonable. Now that we've seen the reward, the risk is worth it. The forgotten Marshall won't be forgotten for long; he also has great K numbers and has really won over Piniella in spring training. If these five pitch to their potential, Jeff Samardzija has a long season in front of him as the most talented middle reliever in baseball. This could be the best staff in baseball--tell me again why the Cubs were looking to trade for Peavy? St. Louis Cardinals 1. Adam Wainwright 2. Chris Carpenter 3. Kyle Lohse 4. Todd Wellemeyer 5. Joel Pineiro The Line: I was surprised to see Wainwright go in the 10th round of our expert league. He certainly looks like an ace often when he takes the mound but his strikeouts took a bit of a dive as he struggled with injury in 2008 and he still hasn't overcome some control issues. I would lay low. When last we saw Carpenter, he spent two seasons as the best pitcher in the NL, and then two seasons as an injury-ravaged mess. Now he's going to be 34, but can be had so late that the upside if he stays healthy is tremendous. Lohse had a nice little contract year bump but his 5.4 K/9 is enough reason to let someone else take the risk; I'd say the same about Wellemeyer, who has better strikeout numbers but also likes to give up home runs. Pineiro isn't fantasy relevant.
Houston Astros1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler The Line: I have never had Oswalt on a team of mine, and he's rewarded my skepticism by leading the majors in wins over the last eight seasons. But I will continue to bet on red this year, because I can't accept that his small 32-year-old frame can remain healthy and reliable much longer. He can reasonably be drafted as a top 15 SP, though. Rodriguez can run up the strikeouts but he's terribly unreliable and somehow, at the age of 30, has still never thrown 200 healthy IP in a season. Don't draft him before the 21st round as your fifth or sixth starter. Backe and Moehler offer absolutely no fantasy upside and shouldn't be drafted. And yes, you might remember Hampton from such teams as the 1999 Astros and the 2000 Mets, but be not deceived. His career ended a long time ago and no one has bothered to tell him.
Cincinnati Reds1. Aaron Harang
2. Edison Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Micah Owings The Line: Wouldn't be a huge surprise to see major reversals from nearly every arm on this staff from 2008 to 2009. Harang was the biggest fantasy bust not named Fausto in 2008, and is not looking any better in spring. He was taken in the 15th round in our expert league, which is too early for the type of value discount that a 6-17, 4.78 ERA pitcher really should see. If you can get him in the 18th round or later, there is nothing but upside. Volquez, on the strength of his K potential and his extraordinary first half last year, will be drafted as a top 20 SP, but do not overlook his 4.27 BB/9, 7th worst in the majors last year. A pitcher like him who throws a changeup 32% of the time having trouble with control could blow up in an ugly way, so be skeptical. Arroyo is a total mystery--his ability to eat innings is good for the wins (15 in 2008) but how happy could you really be with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, his career numbers. It's looking more and more like 2006 was the fluke. Not much doubt about Cueto's upside--we saw it in his first two major league starts: 1-0, 13.1 IP, 3 ER, 18 K, 0 BB, 0.45 WHIP. He's a forgotten sleeper now and can be had for great value in the 20th or 21st and could pay bigger dividends this year than someone like Kershaw or Scherzer. Owings is competing with the terribly disappointing Homer Bailey for the fifth spot--his 1.20 HR/9 does not bode well for the Great American Smallpark and just in the interest of the team finally making a decision on Bailey, Owings probably ends up in a pinch-hit role sooner than later.
Milwaukee Brewers 1. Yovani Gallardo 2. Dave Bush 3. Jeff Suppan 4. Manny Parra 5. Braden Looper The Line: This should be easy. Gallardo's talent is top-notch and if he can be had in the 11th or 12th, you may want to take a chance because there really is Cy Young-caliber talent here, though it's really all speculation at this point. Parra has some talent too and is probably draftable in mixed leagues with his strikeout potential. The only reason to have Bush on your team is if you need an absolute last-round mitigation of WHIP but he's probably not even good enough to be that. Suppan and Looper are not draftable, just boring sniper start options in great matchups.
Pittsburgh Pirates 1. Paul Maholm 2. Ian Snell 3. Zach Duke 4. Tom Gorzelanny 5. Jeff Karstens The Line: There used to be so much potential with this staff. Gorzelanny and Duke had their runs of promise but appear to be lost causes now. Don't give up on Snell yet though, his K potential is strong and his .358 BABIP indicates a lot of room for regression back to near-2007 levels--definitely don't draft him, though. This year Maholm is the one coming off a solid season but he's still pretty thin statistically, so don't be upset if someone else drafts him. Karstens is the worst pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff, which really must be depressing for him and his family.
Next week we wrap up our journey around the majors with a stop at the NL East. I promise I'll do my best to not spend the whole column talking about my beloved Mets. See you soon!
~Evan the Censor
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