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The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009 ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.
Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing. The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP. I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues. A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon. ~Evan the Censor Labels: Clay Buchholz
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comZach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009 W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned? Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes. Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game). I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership. Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer! ~Evan Labels: Zach Duke
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009 ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect? What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily. Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that. Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now? "It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown Labels: Jarrod Washburn
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009 L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much? The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game. What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize. As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers. The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places. I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Aaron Harang
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Jonathan Sanchez v LAD, 8/10/2009 L, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K Looking at the Rotowire story log for Jonathan Sanchez shows two amusingly contrasting stories. First, there's the 6/17 story which describes how Bruce Bochy is about to send Sanchez to the bullpen (and rightfully so) for his total lack of effectiveness of his changeup. The other story is Sanchez throwing a fielder-aborted perfect game (thanks for nothing, Juan Uribe) on 7/10. 11 K's and 0 BB's? Who is this kid? And who is the real Jonathan Sanchez? The real one, unfortunately, is the one characterized by Sanchez's ugly 5-10 record so far in 2009 and even uglier peripherals. The dominance element of great pitching does not elude Sanchez, who has posted a strong 9.5 K/9 this year and great plate control stats--he is in the top 15 among starters in Z-Swing% (pitches in the zone taken) and O-Contact% (pitches outside of the zone swung and missed). Clearly Sanchez can use his slider to kill batters in multiple ways. But the control element has missed him entirely and it's not getting any better. Sanchez now has run his BB/9 all the way up to 5.03--the worst in the majors. He is throwing only 61% of his pitches for strikes (showing no improvement from last year) and still throwing a full 4.0 pitches per batter faced, which runs up pitch counts rapidly when you put that many batters on base. Despite the aberration of Sanchez's perfect game, he has now walked 13 batters in his last four starts and is also posting a sub-1 GB/FB ratio. You can't ask for a line better than what Sanchez posted on 7/10--but you also can't expect him to repeat it anytime soon when batters are getting walked at such an alarming rate (I can't stress this enough-- 5.03 BB/9) and he can't keep the ball down. For now, Jonathan Sanchez is a case of all kinds of talent that is far from refined enough to trust on your fantasy team, unless you have a safe lead in WHIP and need some serious help in strikeouts. He's owned in 48% of Yahoo leagues so there is clearly demand--I would rather be the one trading him than trading for him as the deadline approaches. ~Evan the Censor Labels: Jonathan Sanchez
The Starting Lineby Evan "the Censor" Dickensevan@fantasybaseballsearch.comSorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background: 2004Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS 2005Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC 2006Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL 2007Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA 2008Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise. So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009: Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET 2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX 3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI 4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI 5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship. Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA 2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN 3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL 4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS 5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far. Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon! ~Evan the Censor Labels: Aaron Harang, BABIP, Jarrod Washburn, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco
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