Stat SPaz Week continued: BABIP

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Sorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background:

2004
Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM
Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS

2005
Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK
Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC

2006
Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL

2007
Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA

2008
Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL
Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX

Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise.

So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009:

Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET
2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX
3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI
4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI
5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS

All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship.

Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA
2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN
3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL
4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS
5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE

Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far.

Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor