The Starting Line: Zach Duke - 8/23/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?
Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.
Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).
I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.
Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!
~Evan
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?
Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.
Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).
I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.
Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!
~Evan
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