The Starting Line: Aaron Harang - 8/15/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K
The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?
The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.
What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.
As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.
The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.
I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K
The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?
The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.
What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.
As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.
The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.
I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
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