The Starting Line: Clay Buchholz - 8/25/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K
On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.
Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.
The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.
I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.
A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K
On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.
Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.
The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.
I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.
A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Clay Buchholz
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