The Starting Line: Kevin Slowey - 6/7/09
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Kevin Slowey @ SEA, 6/7/2009
L, 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K
I actually watched the Mariners-Twins game on Sunday afternoon intending to write a blog about Erik Bedard, who has proven himself to be every bit the exceptional value pick that I thought he would be and still has one of the illest curveballs in baseball. But I think the more important SP-related take from this game is a bit of regret on my part--I thought this may be the year that Slowey established himself as a true fantasy ace, but the leaks that were apparent on Sunday make me think I might have been a year too early.
Kevin Slowey is a control pitcher--in fact, he is the epitome of control pitchers. The ML-leading 0.93 BB/9 Slowey posted prior to Sunday's start, if maintained, would be the first sub-1.00 BB/9 since Carlos Silva in 2005. In fact, no one other than Greg Maddux has posted a BB/9 lower than 1.24 since 2005--as a reference, Cliff Lee led the majors last year with a 1.37 BB/9. Slowey isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher--his 6.7 career K/9 is good, not great--and he is definitely not a groundball pitcher; his 0.74 GB/FB is actually seventh-lowest in the majors. What he's able to do is scatter base hits and because he makes almost no location mistakes, he can limit damage and keep a high strand rate--very reminiscent of Tom Glavine in his prime.
The problem today was that Slowey ran into CB Bucknor, a home plate umpire with a strike zone the size of a index card. Bucknor was completely fair, consistently denying Erik Bedard the outside corner, but Bedard can always go back to his dynamite curveball. Slowey doesn't have the same strikeout pitch that can overcome a tight strike zone, and once his pitch counts started running up you could see some anxiety creep in. For Slowey to actually walk two batters in a game is incredible (that brings his total to 9 for the entire season) but the 10 hits is a clear consequence of not being able to use the outside part of the strike zone the way he'd like, and it happened against a really awful Seattle offense that has been floundering mightily.
I think that by the end of the year, Slowey will have 12 or 13 wins, and a WHIP around 1.20 with an ERA close to the 3.99 he put up last year--but just like 2008, he will probably average at least 1.0 H/IP, and until he can ramp up his underused offspeed pitches to really cut batters off the way Bedard does with his curveball, he's going to run into disasters like this now and then. A control pitcher like Slowey comes around rarely, but the translation to real ace is a level that Slowey is clearly not quite ready for.
Thanks for reading--all comments, questions, vulgar flames, and requests for discussion of specific pitchers to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great week!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Kevin Slowey @ SEA, 6/7/2009
L, 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K
I actually watched the Mariners-Twins game on Sunday afternoon intending to write a blog about Erik Bedard, who has proven himself to be every bit the exceptional value pick that I thought he would be and still has one of the illest curveballs in baseball. But I think the more important SP-related take from this game is a bit of regret on my part--I thought this may be the year that Slowey established himself as a true fantasy ace, but the leaks that were apparent on Sunday make me think I might have been a year too early.
Kevin Slowey is a control pitcher--in fact, he is the epitome of control pitchers. The ML-leading 0.93 BB/9 Slowey posted prior to Sunday's start, if maintained, would be the first sub-1.00 BB/9 since Carlos Silva in 2005. In fact, no one other than Greg Maddux has posted a BB/9 lower than 1.24 since 2005--as a reference, Cliff Lee led the majors last year with a 1.37 BB/9. Slowey isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher--his 6.7 career K/9 is good, not great--and he is definitely not a groundball pitcher; his 0.74 GB/FB is actually seventh-lowest in the majors. What he's able to do is scatter base hits and because he makes almost no location mistakes, he can limit damage and keep a high strand rate--very reminiscent of Tom Glavine in his prime.
The problem today was that Slowey ran into CB Bucknor, a home plate umpire with a strike zone the size of a index card. Bucknor was completely fair, consistently denying Erik Bedard the outside corner, but Bedard can always go back to his dynamite curveball. Slowey doesn't have the same strikeout pitch that can overcome a tight strike zone, and once his pitch counts started running up you could see some anxiety creep in. For Slowey to actually walk two batters in a game is incredible (that brings his total to 9 for the entire season) but the 10 hits is a clear consequence of not being able to use the outside part of the strike zone the way he'd like, and it happened against a really awful Seattle offense that has been floundering mightily.
I think that by the end of the year, Slowey will have 12 or 13 wins, and a WHIP around 1.20 with an ERA close to the 3.99 he put up last year--but just like 2008, he will probably average at least 1.0 H/IP, and until he can ramp up his underused offspeed pitches to really cut batters off the way Bedard does with his curveball, he's going to run into disasters like this now and then. A control pitcher like Slowey comes around rarely, but the translation to real ace is a level that Slowey is clearly not quite ready for.
Thanks for reading--all comments, questions, vulgar flames, and requests for discussion of specific pitchers to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great week!
~Evan the Censor
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