Three Sell-High Candidates
The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Now that the season is roughly one-third in the books, we have a healthy enough sample size to determine who is for real, and who is putting up numbers that can only be described as a kind mirage. To that end, here are three pitchers for whom luck has been on their side, and who can be reasonably expected to see a downturn in the very near future.
Kevin Millwood - There's no possible way a sub-3.00 ERA can continue for Millwood, and in fact he's a prime candidate to put up a +4 the rest of the season. Millwood is missing disaster with all kinds of good fortune, but his .262 BABIP is due for an increase and his relatively high walk numbers mean that the WHIP damage could be substantial. Millwood is putting up a career-low K/9 of 5.08--pretty incredible when you consider he's got thirteen years of career behind him--and giving up HR at an ugly 1.27 HR/9 rate, far above his career high. When more hits start falling against him, as they will, his ERA is due for a sharp rise. Sell high.
Josh Outman - Outman has been a great story through his first nine starts for the uber-young Athletics rotation, outpitching all the other highly touted prospects surrounding him. In his first nine starts, he's put up a 3.02 ERA and a strong 7.0 K/9. However, he's also been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck: only Scott Feldman has a lower BABIP than Outman's incredible .242. He has been putting runners on the bases at a good clip thanks to his ugly 3.7 BB/9 and 59% of pitches thrown for strikes, but has been able to strand 78% of those runners by getting balls to drop in the right place. He can't control that forever, and those walks will come home to roost with a healthy ERA increase sooner than later.
Matt Cain - I know everyone thinks this kid is the next fantasy ace (and has thought that for three years now)--and in fact, if someone in your league thinks that, get them to overpay for him right now. Cain's walks have always been too high, as they are again (3.7 BB/9) but for some reason his strikeout rate has slowed dramatically, from a career 7.7 K/9 all the way down to 6.7 K/9 this season. His flyball rate still exceeds his groundball rate by quite a bit, and though he's been able to keep his HR/FB very low in the past, if that ratio climbs it's bad news. The bottom line is that there is no way any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP can maintain an ERA under 3.00 for an entire season--Cain will not strand 88% of the runners he puts on base, as he has this year so far. But every league has at least one owner with a Cain mancrush; find that guy and make him pay for these inflated stats.
Coming soon--the Censor takes a look at three guys for whom the best part of 2009 is certainly yet to come. Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Now that the season is roughly one-third in the books, we have a healthy enough sample size to determine who is for real, and who is putting up numbers that can only be described as a kind mirage. To that end, here are three pitchers for whom luck has been on their side, and who can be reasonably expected to see a downturn in the very near future.
Kevin Millwood - There's no possible way a sub-3.00 ERA can continue for Millwood, and in fact he's a prime candidate to put up a +4 the rest of the season. Millwood is missing disaster with all kinds of good fortune, but his .262 BABIP is due for an increase and his relatively high walk numbers mean that the WHIP damage could be substantial. Millwood is putting up a career-low K/9 of 5.08--pretty incredible when you consider he's got thirteen years of career behind him--and giving up HR at an ugly 1.27 HR/9 rate, far above his career high. When more hits start falling against him, as they will, his ERA is due for a sharp rise. Sell high.
Josh Outman - Outman has been a great story through his first nine starts for the uber-young Athletics rotation, outpitching all the other highly touted prospects surrounding him. In his first nine starts, he's put up a 3.02 ERA and a strong 7.0 K/9. However, he's also been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck: only Scott Feldman has a lower BABIP than Outman's incredible .242. He has been putting runners on the bases at a good clip thanks to his ugly 3.7 BB/9 and 59% of pitches thrown for strikes, but has been able to strand 78% of those runners by getting balls to drop in the right place. He can't control that forever, and those walks will come home to roost with a healthy ERA increase sooner than later.
Matt Cain - I know everyone thinks this kid is the next fantasy ace (and has thought that for three years now)--and in fact, if someone in your league thinks that, get them to overpay for him right now. Cain's walks have always been too high, as they are again (3.7 BB/9) but for some reason his strikeout rate has slowed dramatically, from a career 7.7 K/9 all the way down to 6.7 K/9 this season. His flyball rate still exceeds his groundball rate by quite a bit, and though he's been able to keep his HR/FB very low in the past, if that ratio climbs it's bad news. The bottom line is that there is no way any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP can maintain an ERA under 3.00 for an entire season--Cain will not strand 88% of the runners he puts on base, as he has this year so far. But every league has at least one owner with a Cain mancrush; find that guy and make him pay for these inflated stats.
Coming soon--the Censor takes a look at three guys for whom the best part of 2009 is certainly yet to come. Have a great weekend!
~Evan the Censor
Labels: Josh Outman, Kevin Millwood, Matt Cain
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