SPs Around the Majors - NL West - 2/28/09

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - NL West
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The NL West may be the strongest pitching division in the majors. As many as five of the top ten SPs in baseball pitch here, with a lot of solid mid-rotation guys and some really exciting young phenoms. And yes, the worst pitcher in baseball still makes $18 million a year. What recession?

Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer

The Line: These are five very distinct fantasy SPs, who combined might prove to be the best fantasy staff in baseball. Webb is far from the sexiest fantasy starter, but he is one of the most consistent and reliable, and should have no problem taking out 20 wins again with solid peripherals. Don't let anyone tell you he doesn't strike anyone out either--he finished 16th in the majors last year in Ks. However, his sore forearm in spring training at least bears watching. Haren, who tied for 5th in Ks and 7th in WHIP in '08, actually has the potential to post better numbers than Webb in every category but needs to prove he can last a full season without fading. He's absolutely a top 10 starter, but considering pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade midseason if he has another sick run (4 ER in 43 IP during one six-start stretch in Jun/Jul). Davis isn't draftable, especially after some ugly spring training struggles so far, but is always someone to pay attention to for a sniper start in good matchups. Garland will probably win 14 games again, at least, and maybe with the new cutter he is working on the Ks could see a slight bump, which is necessary for him to remain on a fantasy roster full-time. He is probably a waiver guy in any mixed league to start, though. Scherzer is the real deal, in case you didn't notice his last four starts where he struck out 32 batters in 22 innings. He will definitely be drafted, but like David Price and Joba Chamberlain, is high-risk for limited wins and will definitely be shut down early, since he has never pitched more than 109 IP in a season. Make sure your staff is balanced accordingly if you draft him.

San Francisco Giants
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez

The Line: If the best staff in baseball is the Diamondbacks, then the highest K rate in baseball will definitely belong to the Giants. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Johan and projects out to another 18-win season with a 10 K/9 rate and a sub-3 ERA. He never seemed to tire in 2009 and if Bochy doesn't make him throw 140 pitches every game he could win another Cy Young. Don't let him slip by the late second round of your draft. Cain's 7.7 K/9 rate is stellar and his 8-14 record is highly misleading due to his pitiful run support (second worst in the majors), but his 1.36 WHIP raises serious red flags. He really only has one more year to prove whether he can be an ace-level pitcher as the hype promised, or just another mid-rotation guy. I wouldn't draft him any higher than 30th overall SP. At least health has not been a problem for him. I don't have a clue what to expect from Johnson but if he can stay healthy enough to throw 150 IP, that will translate to 130 K and probably at least 9 wins with excellent control. You could do worse for a fifth starter on your team. Look for him to gain momentum leading up to 300 wins. Sanchez is probably my favorite young sleeper in the majors--he is also going to challenge 9.0 K/9 and has very little pressure on him (and will learn a lot from Big Unit), plus his .327 BABIP last year and steadily improving control indicates he is a much better pitcher than his 5.01 ERA indicates. I have nothing to say about the other clown, other than he is the most overpaid athlete in the history of professional sports and anyone who drafts him should quit and go play fantasy NASCAR. I guess I will summarize my thoughts with this line from his 9/14 start at Petco Park, the greatest pitchers park in baseball: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 1K. If I told you that I knew a pitcher with a higher WHIP than K/9, does that sound like something you'd be interested in?

Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Randy Wolf
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Jason Schmidt

The Line: I was put in the position of having to dog on Billingsley a bit when every fantasy pundit was ready to propose to him in September, but now that I see him slipping out of the top fifteen SPs I see some value here. He is a K machine and a dominating force when he is on track. If not for a little blowup against Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season, his ERA (11th in the majors) would have been top ten in baseball. He has to work on his fastball control to bring down the WHIP, and hopefully avoid any complications from his offseason leg injury which doesn't appear to be a problem so far. Kuroda nearly threw a perfect game last year but generally does not have the stuff, or the durability, to be a reliable fantasy starter. In deeper leagues, Wolf could be a steal as a sleeper. His K/9 rate should be reliably over 7.5 and he brings a veteran presence to a solid pitchers park. Kershaw has undeniable upside but is being drafted far too early for a guy who hasn't thrown a full season yet. Give it one more year. Anyone else forget Schmidt still had a job? His presence on this depth chart begs an important question--who is actually going to be the fifth starter for the Dodgers?

San Diego Padres
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Kevin Correia
5. Josh Geer

The Line: Peavy was #2 in my rankings until the last part of the year, when his splits kept getting uglier and uglier. He now sports a +4 road ERA which could be a problem if he gets traded, as seems likely, and the pathetic team behind him will always make wins a challenge, which is troubling for a fantasy ace, especially one coming off a five-year low in K/9 and five-year high in BB/9. Too much talent to ignore, but be careful. Young's atrocious 4.22 BB/9 (only 7 pitchers worse in 2008--admittedly though Young only threw half a season) definitely caught up with him, and his peripherals suggest he has been lucky for a couple years now. His ERA will likely hover around 4.00 and his WHIP around 1.25, but even with injury risk he is a decent late sleeper for strikeouts in the 17th or 18th round. Baek and Correia will serve only to make poor depressed Padres fans continually ask "how many days until Peavy pitches?" Geer actually pitched pretty strong during his September callup but his minor league numbers indict him as just another sad, unusable Padres pitcher.

Colorado Rockies
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Greg Smith

The Line: Who cares, they all pitch in Coors Canaveral! Just kidding. Cook is a contact pitcher in a hitter's paradise, which spells even more trouble than his gnarly 4.09 K/9 rate, second-worst in the majors (and that's only if you think Livan Hernandez should count as "in the majors"). He's probably the worst Opening Day starter in fantasy baseball and will never win 16 games again. You'll likely find Jimenez and his ghastly stuff on most of my fantasy teams, as well as in the dictionary next to "heat." He got remarkably better in the late season and, with marked improvement in his control, could emerge as an elite pitcher any day now. And if he gives up home runs in Coors, at least they're fun to watch. Marquis' 1.30 K/BB is bad in every way and his historically high HR/9 rate could translate to many Coors souvenirs. Don't draft de la Rosa but don't forget him either--he was 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA in the second half and his 8.86 K/9 was bested only by six other pitchers in 2008. He's much more than the "deep NL-only sleeper" some are calling him. Smith, he of the worst run support in the history of baseball in 2008, came over in the Holliday trade and should have enough to get the fifth spot, though his 1.28 K/BB is awful and he may have a lot of trouble adjusting to Colorado. If he falters, look for Franklin Morales and his wicked stuff to get a chance to redeem a lost 2008.

The Censor will have to pull some (unpaid) overtime next week as the AL Central brings us six teams. Guess I better get to work...until then, direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Sayonara...

~Evan the Censor

Expert League Draft (p)Review - 2/25/09

The Starting Line
Expert League Draft (p)Review
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

So as you're probably aware, the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is going down again in 2009, and our draft is next Tuesday. The Censor has the 11th pick of the draft and I'm feverishly preparing with all my silly little charts, projections, magazines, random number generating spreadsheets, voodoo dolls, etc. At the end of any draft, I judge my draft results on how happy I am with my SP roster--I am an SP nerd, after all--so at the risk of playing the entire draft with my cards face up, my future self has e-mailed me a post-draft article detailing exactly how well the draft went for me. Here's play-by-play from none other than me--seven days from now. Hooray optimism!

Early Aces - The 11th spot proves to be ideal, as the wheel bypasses Johan Santana leaving me to snatch him up with the 14th overall pick in the 2nd round. I excitedly pencil in another 2.90 ERA, 200 K season with 21 wins supported by the striking new Mets bullpen. I focus on offense for a couple rounds--bypassing the itch to draft Cole Hamels in the early 4th--but then when Roy Halladay is still on the board in the late 5th round (59th overall) I decide it's time to stack up more win potential and grab the major-league leading 1.05 WHIP, crossing my fingers for the strikeouts to hold for another year. Thus I've met my goal--drafting two of the top ten SPs on the board at reasonable values.

Mid-Rotation Studs - As the 7th round draws near its end, I can't help but notice that some of the guys I'm not nearly so keen on (Beckett, Oswalt, Kazmir) were being reached for while some of my favorites are being neglected. I sweat out the unpredictable wheel drafter and when the smoke clears, I'm ecstatic to see Chad Billingsley still on the board. As much as I love James Shields, I have to put Billingsley and the incredible K potential a notch above. I felt much more comfortable doing this since Halladay has already solidified my WHIP. Now that my first three spots are locked and loaded, I take a breather and focus on offense for a few more rounds and troll for solid values--I curse just a bit when Kevin Slowey goes in the 12th--until the 13th round is nearing a close and Ryan Dempster, somehow, is still on the board. I quickly check the news wires to make sure he's not dead, and to confirm that yes, he was 17-6 with a sub-3 ERA and an 8+ K/9 rate last year, and so being satisfied that my leaguemates have all lost their mind I snatch him up.

Late Sleepers - Erik Bedard in the early 14th seems like great value but I just can't take my fifth SP this early. Instead I fill up my offense and find an even more value-oriented solution for K's by grabbing Ubaldo Jimenez in the early 18th. Thank goodness all the other owners forgot how much better he got in the late season. Now I try to figure out the best way to draft another Mets pitcher (even us experts have our weak spot), but Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey get snatched up just as I'm preparing to take them, so I settle for the forgotten John Maine--just two years removed from an All-Star caliber first half--in the early 22nd.

Endgame Dice Rolling - Or actually not, since I generally try to avoid the hot young prospects with too much downside (yes, I drafted Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes in 2006), so I pass on the opportunity to grab the appealing Manny Parra and take the rock-solid Mark Buehrle, one of my favorites in all of baseball, to fill up my seventh and final SP spot. Bonus: I can watch one of his entire outings in about 30 minutes with the help of my trusty DVR.

The Results:
Johan Santana (2nd round)
Roy Halladay (5th)
Chad Billingsley (8th)
Ryan Dempster (13th)
Ubaldo Jimenez (18th)
John Maine (22nd)
Mark Buehrle (25th)

Can't complain about how that worked out--I've got all four SP stats covered with room to spare. Here's a rotation I'm ready to go to war with.

Now, let's hope that the draft actually plays out this way. Based on the results of other recent expert drafts, I think every one of these picks is very reasonable--but only if none of my fellow owners hear about this post. So shhhhhh! Let's keep this between us until then. I'll definitely be back after the draft with a recap of how my SP draft went, but until then feel free to direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - AL East - 2/21/09

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL East
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Now here's a division that SP dorks can get excited about. The AL East features some of the major league's best aces, some of the most exciting young pitchers, and some of the most controversial fantasy SPs. Oh yeah, and a few guys who pitch for Baltimore.

Tampa Bay Rays
1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

The line: The switch at the top of the depth chart for the Rays is both a testament to the growing frustration with Kazmir's inability to either stay healthy or throw fewer than 4.2 pitches per batter, and the slow realization that Shields is the absolute real deal. The new Rays ace, one of my personal favorite SPs in baseball, has an incredible changeup that he uses brilliantly, and keeps his strikeout numbers reasonably high while providing solid support in the WHIP area (the forgotten fantasy category). He is going to win a Cy Young someday. Kazmir is still top 20 in my 2009 rankings, based on the fact that he led the major leagues in strikeouts just two years ago and still posted a 3.49 ERA with his uneven 2008 season, but if he goes through another season without pitching in the seventh inning he will be dropping further down the depth chart quickly. Look for Garza to be overrated by playoff-starry owners who don't realize his K/9 rate was only 6.3 and are sure this is the year he becomes an ace. He's solid, but not at the level some think. Sonnanstine, like Shields, has incredibly low walk numbers (only 1.7 BB/9) but makes up for it with a nice scattering of base hits. With limited strikeout upside, he's still on the level of a mixed league sniper start. And of course, the controversial wild card Price--let's get one thing out of the way: I don't think there's a chance in the world he doesn't open the season in the rotation. That being the case, he could provide the same numbers as Kazmir with high strikeouts and low IP counts (and therefore limited wins) but as with any young first-year phenom be wary of two things: injury risk, and early shutdown risk. Discount his value accordingly. I would not draft him higher than my #4 SP in a mixed league.

Boston Red Sox
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny

The line: I, unlike almost every other pundit, do not recommend Beckett as a fantasy ace, and in fact do not have him in my Top 20. His K and BB numbers sure looked good, but he was subject to frequent disaster starts, and I need to see more consistency before I fully buy back in. Lester, on the other hand, found his way into the bottom of my Top 20 with remarkable composure and consistency all year. His relatively low strikeouts are all that's keeping him from true ace level. Dice-K is a truly confounding pitcher. Observe the pristine 2.90 ERA and the incredible 18-3 record--and stop and think that he actually averaged a win, that most valuable of fantasy stats, every 9.3 innings he pitched. That is borderline mystical for a pitcher who walks batters at a Kazmir-esque level, running up embarrassing 5.0 BB/9 and 1.6 K/BB ratios, and can't get deep into games as a result. But he's a lock for wins, strikeouts, and at worst an above-average ERA, and is my favorite Red Sox SP for fantasy players. Wakefield is just an innings-eater with some win potential and no real mixed league fantasy relevance. Penny appears ready for Opening Day but is DND until we see what he's capable of. Did anyone else not realize he's only 30 years old? The better option is to draft John Smoltz very late and wait for his June return, when he will take a rotation spot. All this equals a logjam for poor Clay Buchholz who doesn't appear to have a clear path to much major league time this year.

New York Yankees
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Chien-Mein Wang
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite

The line: The Yankee hater in me is trying to find reasons why this team and its mega-spending will fail this year. It's pretty hard with Sabathia who showed an incredible ability to put a team on his back in crunch time. Is it really that difficult to forsee that wear and tear having an effect into this season though? And will the big laid-back California kid be able to deal with the New York media that chewed up and spit out Randy Johnson? Still, it's tough to rank him any lower than third overall, as I have him. I think Burnett is a much shakier signing considering his injury history--there are few as impressive when he's healthy, but that has never been a guarantee. I can promise that he won't finish in the top three in pitches thrown in 2009, as he did last year, now that he's got the contract. There's a reason Wang slips so late in every round--his strikeouts don't exist and he's very shaky on the road, plus he's coming off a serious injury. Chamberlain is the most controversial fantasy pitcher for the second straight year. He will be erratic and probably get shut down after 160 innings. He will also have some incredibly dominant starts but it's a safe bet someone will drastically overvalue him in your league, so don't get your hopes up. Pettitte, the man of many T's, could still provide some value at the back of your fantasy rotation, especially since he will have so little pressure with the strength of the rest of the staff. Like Buchholz in Boston, it seems likely Phil Hughes will be on the outside looking in.

Toronto Blue Jays
1. Roy Halladay
2. Jesse Litsch
3. David Purcey
4. Casey Janssen
5. Scott Richmond

The line: Halladay is simply the best. An innings eating ERA machine who never tired or slowed down during 2008, and piled up strikeouts to boot. He's a top five SP going into drafts. There is no bigger gap in any rotation than the chasm between Halladay and the rest of these jokers. Litsch just doesn't have the stuff to support his numbers, Purcey is still nothing more than a sleeper, Janssen is a converted middle reliever who already failed once at starting, and Richmond really doesn't have much potential--though his startling 0.67 K/9 and 10.0 K/BB during his major league cup of coffee bears watching. There's one and only one SP worth drafting from this team, though everyone should closely monitor Dustin McGowan's potential return from injury (expected as early as May).

Baltimore Orioles
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Brad Hennessey

The line: Oregon's own Guthrie is really coming into his own, showing constant improvement despite enduring pitiful run support. He is at least draftable as a 6th starter and will contribute positively to your fantasy team's ERA and WHIP, though wins will be spotty. Import rookie Uehara has a lot of sleeper value and should be watched closely--scouts say he throws a mean forkball with very good control. Hill's fantastic 2007 with the Cubs seems so long ago. He's a reclamation project now after his command completely collapsed in 2008. The less said about Hendrickson, Hennessey, or the other four starters who could compete for a job, the better.

The AL is done--next week we head to sunny California and parts nearby for the NL West. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan

SPs Around the Majors - AL Central - 2/14/09

The Starting Line
SPs Around the Majors - AL Central
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Hope you were able to cleanse yourself from the stench of the Texas Rangers rotation after last week's column. We're getting into some much stronger, and potentially more intriguing, situations this week as we take a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up in the AL Central.

Minnesota Twins
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Scott Baker
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins

The line: No intrigue here--this may be the most stable rotation in the majors right now. Liriano might be a top five starter as early as next year but you'll have to swallow down a big lump in your throat to draft him as a Top 20 SP. I'll feel better once I see how he's using the slider. I've made no secret that Slowey is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors, with a K/BB rate that is just dreamy, and a surprising K/9 rate for such a "thinking man's pitcher." I will be looking for him in the 15th or 16th round of every league this year. Baker, who himself is progressing toward fantasy ace status, could go a round later and may even surpass Slowey by the end of the season. Blackburn, like Baker and Slowey, never walks anyone, but his strikeouts are few and far between, so he's more of a sniper start candidate in good matchups. Perkins doesn't have the skills to match his surprising 12-4 record and isn't much of a fantasy option. You could certainly do worse for a fifth starter in real baseball, though--just ask one of the AL West teams.

Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buehrle
2. John Danks
3. Gavin Floyd
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Clayton Richard

The line: I am an unapologetic fan of Buerhle's consistency and would love to have him at the back of my fantasy rotation--the man who threw a no-hitter without hitting 90 on the radar gun is coming off a September where he gave up a total of 10 ER for the entire month. Expect another 15 wins with a 3.75 ERA. I also love everything about Danks and will be ecstatic to get him as my third starter; he is a future ace. At the risk of my friend Todd Farino canceling my column, tread very lightly around Floyd who won't escape his alarmingly low BABIP and his unacceptable walk rate much longer. Prepare for a lot of "I told you so"s from me on Gavin Floyd in 2009. Colon is only worthwhile to me if I get to watch him take ABs in interleague play again--that's better than any episode of 30 Rock. Richard is the clear frontrunner for the fifth spot; he's a solid young groundball pitcher who will likely have success--but do not forget the name Aaron Poreda; he is a dynamite prospect with great stuff and when (not if) Colon gets hurt, he could have a chance to shine in the majors.

Cleveland Indians
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Aaron Laffey
4. Jeremy Sowers
5. Anthony Reyes


The Line: What can you say about Lee that the staggering fantasy line doesn't tell you already? He was simply spectacular in 2008. There's nothing an SP dork like me loves more than control and Lee is the epitome--only 34 walks in 31 starts over the entire season. I don't expect 22 wins, and I don't expect a 2.54 ERA, and I don't expect 0.5 HR/9 again, but even if I apply a healthy discount to last year, Cliff Lee is still a Top 10 SP for 2009. I was high on Carmona last year and have the scars to prove it, but reports say that he looks good in Winter League and he might still be around in the late rounds--he's only a year removed from a dominating 3.06 ERA and is at least worth a spec play as an injury sleeper. Laffey, Sowers, and Reyes are all low-K deep AL-only options--though Reyes did have a solid August before being shut down. If all holds true to expectations, expect the Indians staff to be last in the AL in strikeouts.

Detroit Tigers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Armando Galarraga
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Zach Miner

The line: Verlander was a confounding disappointment last year. He still will probably not fall out of the 10th round because of his staggering potential, but at least he is playing for a big contract now and hopefully has enough experience to pitch with increased stability. I won't be drafting him. Galarraga, sure to be the most mis-spelled name by fantasy pundits in 2009, just turned 27 and can probably attribute most of his 2008 success to good fortune, since K ratios don't explain it. Do not expect a repeat. Bonderman will leave owners pleading for a return to 2006 form but his strikeouts disappeared last year in the 71 IP that he was able to stay healthy for and who knows if he can stay healthy this time. DND. Jackson actually looked great in Tampa before a terrible September breakdown--he is a spec play, but with a lower WHIP could be a rewarding one. The fifth spot is still up in the air between Miner, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Willis seems to be a better fit as a lefty reliever at this point, and Robertson and his mammoth 6.35 ERA is a lost cause, so Miner gets the fifth spot by default.

Kansas City Royals
1. Zach Greinke
2. Gil Meche
3. Brian Bannister
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Kyle Davies

The Line: Greinke is now a major league ace and is pretty close to being a fantasy ace as well. All you need to know about the 25-year-old is that his best month last month was September--3-1, 8 ER in 26 IP, 5 BB, 28 K. He is only getting better and even at his projected draft value of round 10-11, he could be a sick value. Don't worry too much about the wins on a weak KC team either, he's talented enough to earn 15 wins on his own. Meche, under the radar, has become fantasy relevant again--a 3.09 ERA over the last two-thirds of the season is something to be proud of. With very strong K ratios, he's a worthy fifth starter in your fantasy rotation. Bannister's cliff-dive after a strong April was one of the more depressing sights in fantasy and he's got nothing to offer any fantasy rotation until he proves he's back to 2007 form. Hochevar is at least a year or two away from fantasy relevance. Don't draft Davies, but keep an eye on him; he had a fantastic September and has enough talent that a mid-season resurgence wouldn't be that surprising. He's still only 25 years old.

Thanks for reading--the AL East descends upon us next week. Direct all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy Valentine's Day!

~Evan the Censor

SPs Around the Majors - AL West - 2/7/09

SPs AROUND THE MAJORS - AL WEST
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

The Censor's about to go hopping around the majors taking a look at how the five-man rotations are shaping up for 2009, and offering some guidance on how you should be looking at these SPs from a fantasy perspective. We'll get started with the American League West--an easy place to start since it boasts some of the worst rotations in recent baseball memory. Hooray for fantasy irrelevance!

Los Angeles Angels
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley

The line: Lackey and Big Erv are both in my top fifteen preseason SPs and are both 6th-7th round picks. No one should be surprised if either puts up a major Cy Young campaign in 2009. Saunders is not better than a fourth fantasy starter with his terrible K/9 and K/BB rates and second-half decline, so don't be the guy who reaches for his luck-inflated win total. Weaver's value is very depressed after his disappointing 2008, but his 7.8 K/9 could point to a rebound and he could be a value in the 14th or 15th round. Moseley is not fantasy-relevant, and don't be surprised if he loses his spot to youngster Anthony Ortega--who would still just be an AL-only spec play until he shows he can strike major league hitters out.

Seattle Mariners
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Brandon Morrow
4. Carlos Silva
5. Jarrod Washburn

The line: King Felix is going to be the stud he always was expected to be...one of these years. I would rather wait and see for now and do not have him in my preseason Top 20. Remember he is, amazingly enough, still only 22. Bedard is healthy going into spring training and could be an incredible value pick in middle rounds--and is in a contract year. Morrow is staying in the rotation unless his arm does not hold up and is a legit sleeper with his ill stuff. No matter how bad the bullpen situation gets, the Mariners have committed to giving him a chance in the rotation and I expect him to seize it. Silva and Washburn are both hideously overpaid and pretty bad fantasy pitchers and either could be replaced by the superior youngster Ryan Rowland-Smith if they're bad enough--though offseason reports are that Silva has lost some weight and has been working hard to shed the "Barry Zito of the AL" label.

Oakland Athletics
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Sean Gallagher
3. Dana Eveland
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Dallas Braden

The Line: Move along, nothing to see here. Duchscherer is a major injury risk who was the luckiest SP in baseball before his season ended abruptly in August and you don't want to be the one taking him in the 16th round. Gallagher and Braden have some potential but are still not mixed-league options. Eveland has serious WHIP problems to get under control before he's relevant. The one pitcher worth talking about is Gonzalez who is a strikeout machine and is definitely going to start despite chatter about a bullpen assignment. Keep an eye on him as a deep sleeper, though he's not draftable in standard mixed leagues.

Texas Rangers
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Matt Harrison
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Scott Feldman

The Line: Every team has a young guy who they're hoping to get into the rotation for an extended time period, see what kind of potential they have. Unfortunately, Texas has a guy like that in each of its bottom three rotation spots in what may be the worst fantasy SP rotation ever. And it's really a shame--with the deluge of run support any Rangers pitcher is sure to get, you'd like to think there's at least one draftable guy. Millwood is too old and unhealthy, Padilla is too wildly inconsistent, and Harrison and McCarthy are quite honestly not going to amount to anything (yes, I have totally given up on McCarthy). Feldman led the team in quality starts with 13, but that's not a fantasy stat, and his 5.29 ERA is. Jason Jennings is back on a minors deal but too long a shot to get back to the majors. And that, my readers, is probably the last time that a Texas Rangers SP should cross your mind this year. Try hard not to remember that this team has traded both Edison Volquez and John Danks away in the last two years.

It will only get better from here. Tune in next week as we hit the AL Central! Direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor~