The Starting Line: Jordan Zimmerman - 4/20/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Jordan Zimmerman v ATL, 4/20/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K

First things first: Do not read another word until you rush to your league and make sure that Jordan Zimmerman is not on the waiver wire. If he is, then pick him up. I guarantee you he is better than the worst player currently on your team.

The first major league start of an exciting young prospect SP is always cause for celebration--and usually looks pretty standard: 5 innings, 100 pitches, a few strikeouts, a lot of walks. Young pitchers making their major league debut are often, and understandably, a bit wild and inefficient. The Nationals' Jordan Zimmerman proved in his debut on Monday why he is the real thing.

Zimmerman was lifted after six innings for a pinch hitter, which was probably not an easy decision for Acta--because he was sailing through the game like a veteran. Juxtaposed against Derek Lowe, his opponent in the other dugout and the consummate professional veteran starter, Zimmerman put up numbers to die for. He threw an astoundingly low 72 pitches in 6 innings--a ratio of 3.27 pitchers per batter faced. That's identical, by the way, to the ratio put up by Greg Maddux (the master of efficiency) during his 2002 season, the best of his last ten years. Lowe, on the other side, labored to a very poor 4.26 pitches per batter faced.

Zimmerman also was dealing with precision control--71% of his pitches were for strikes, compared to only 56% from Lowe. When batters made contact, Zimmerman kept the ball down--a 1.8 GB/FB ratio compared to a pedestrian 1.0 GB/FB for Lowe, who is one of the great sinker pitchers in baseball. Zimmerman made one mistake pitch to Matt Diaz who left the yard with it, and otherwise made it clear that he is ready for the big leagues. His K/9 numbers were much higher than this in the minors and it stands to reason that he'll be producing at those levels very soon.

I'd rather have Zimmerman than Aaron Poreda, Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello, Derek Holland, or any of the other rookie starters I've been trumpeting. He may even be more successful in 2009 than Tommy Hanson. In the midst of a franchise that has so little to be hopeful about, Jordan Zimmerman is about to give our nation's capital something to cheer for--and something that could have a dramatic impact on your fantasy season.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Felix vs. Verlander - 4/17/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Felix Hernandez v DET, 4/17/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Justin Verlander @ SEA, 4/17/2009
L, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K

Over the last three seasons I've participated in 17 snake-draft leagues. In those leagues I have drafted either Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander exactly zero times. Friday night I watched the two young aces face each other and--despite moments of lust for their incredible fastballs--I was ultimately reminded why these two starters concern me.

The pitchers told nearly the exact same story on Friday. They threw dominant fastballs, challenged hitters with first pitch strikes, and were putting batters away with confidence--except for the dreaded Big Inning.

For Hernandez, it was the second inning--a couple fluky singles, then a breaking ball that got away and hit Gerald Laird. With the bases loaded and one out, Felix was noticeably laboring and started driving his pitch counts up higher. The next batter, Brandon Inge, hit a difficult grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt that scored two, but should have only scored one. Then, an expertly executed suicide squeeze brought in Gerald Laird from third. Eventually the bases were loaded for Magglio Ordonez and Hernandez, visibly anxious, got a fly-out to limit the damage.

For Verlander, it was a very similar situation in the fifth after throwing four perfect innings--Adrian Beltre sat on the first pitch fastball and took it to right field for a double, and suddenly Verlander seemed to pitch with more timidity. A couple singles, a squeeze bunt, a throwing error by Brandon Inge, and suddenly the game was tied and Verlander was growing agitated and started running his pitch counts higher. A bunt single, a wild pitch, and a walk and the final damage was five runs. Then, Verlander came out in the sixth and went right back to mowing guys down.

When these two pitchers are on, they are incredible. Dynamite moving fastballs that blow out the radar gun, great breaking pitches, and the willingness to challenge hitters early. But their problem is that they are both momentum pitchers. When everything is going well, they pitch with confidence and use their best stuff to put their opponents away without fear. But when things start to go downhill in one inning, we see the wheels quickly come off. Both pitchers showed strong efficiency and strike % (Verlander in particular threw an exceptional 73% of pitches for strikes) and both are clearly among the top ten in the major leagues in pure stuff quality. Neither, however, will be a top ten fantasy starter until they can put the brakes on big innings and pitch with consistency for multiple starts.

Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ryan Dempster - 4/12/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Ryan Dempster @ MIL, 4/12/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Not much of a secret that the Censor loves Dempster. I was proud to rate him in my offseason top 20 for SP and considered him the most undervalued pitcher in drafts after he slipped into the low 30's of SP rankings in most drafts. Dempster's spectacular 2008, where he sported 17 wins, a sub-3 ERA, a career-low walk rate, and an 8+ K/9 rate, may not all be repeatable, but his strong groundball tendencies and deceptive slider make him a quality pitcher.

Sunday in Milwaukee, the most interesting thing I saw was a strict reliance on his fastball and slider--both good pitches, but Dempster seemed to want nothing to do with a changeup, which is odd for someone who threw a changeup for 17% of his pitches in 2008. He clearly was having some trouble keeping his pitches down, which is his bread and butter, and that led to a lot of easily taken high fastballs, and some unnecessarily scary fly balls--anyone who saw Reed Johnson's incredible robbery of Fielder's grand slam will remember it for a very long time.

When Dempster got into a groove, he was able to use his slider very effectively and he did not mess around with the weaker hitters in the Brewers lineup. But his Kazmir-esque 110 pitches in six innings is excessive, even for a strikeout-heavy pitcher like Dempster. He has a good offense providing run support and what appears, if Sunday is an indication, to be a solid bullpen backing him up, so in reality 17 wins might not be that far off again this year. Fans will hope to see a bit more offspeed reliance and better first innings if Dempster's going to have another ace-type year, but watching him tonight did nothing to make me doubt that his skills are still intact.

Other notes: Lots of impressive starts on Sunday, but none as incredibly dominant as Aaron Harang's complete game three-hit shutout, striking out nine and walking none. Welcome back, Aaron...Josh Johnson arrived for real on Sunday. This kid is the real deal and if you drafted him in the 14th round, well done...I mentioned last week that I thought Sunday might be the last start Kyle Lohse would spend on the waiver wire in most leagues, but I didn't expect him to be this good. Be the one to pick him up if you still can...if you hate zeroes, check out David Purcey's line: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 6 BB, 4 ER, 10 K?! Purcey threw an incredible 4.7 pitches per batter faced, which is definitely one way to get pulled in the fifth.

~Evan the Censor

Rating the Skepticism Level - 4/10/09

The Starting Line
Rating the Skepticism Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

A few days ago we rated the Concern Level of some major league aces who sputtered out of the gate. Let's turn the tables now and rate the Skepticism Level for some guys who may not even have been drafted in your fantasy league, but look like some of the best in the majors in this short season. For this rating, 10 means "not a chance" and 1 means "this guy is for real."

1. Ubaldo Jimenez @ ARI - W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 2
This is the easiest one on the list--I already knew that the fastest fastball in the majors was the real deal; it was just going to be a matter of how efficient he could pitch and how much his control could hope to improve. Jimenez only threw 56% of his pitches for strikes, which is still well below where it should be for any dominant major leaguer. However, his dominance asserted itself well against a young and somewhat scary lineup in a hitter's park--the lack of HRs is very promising. I will take this start (obviously) from Jimenez any day, but I'm looking for him to get over 60% pitches for strikes before I'm buying him as an every-start pitcher. No skepticism here, though.

2. Jarrod Washburn @ MIN - W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 8
If you don't know exactly what Washburn is good for by now, don't know what to tell you. Over the last five years, his FIP (predictive ERA) has been no lower than 4.35, no higher than 4.78. His K/9 never lower than 4.8, never higher than 5.3 (not very useful in either case). He throws five pitches, but none of them with any real dominance, and admittedly there are still plenty of questions about Minnesota's lineup, especially without Mauer. The only X-factor here is the famed Contract Year, but Washburn doesn't have the stuff to make that kind of difference. Don't buy.

3. Kyle Davies @ CHW - ND, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K
Level of Skepticism: 6
Those 8 K's are a career high for the former bigshot Braves prospect, and his career 1.48 K/BB is likely to rear its head sooner than later. Still, Davies is at least on the radar now; he had a super-hot September and is picking up right where he left off. Although his 4.1 pitches per batter faced is straining a bit, 65% of pitches for strikes with only three base hits means he was carving up the strike zone. If Davies can provide a reasonable bridge from Meche and Greinke to the bottom of the rotation, then once Hochevar is ready this team could be showing some marked improvement. For now, just watch closely.

4. Kevin Millwood v CLE - W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Skepticism: 4
I like Millwood for a few reasons: first, his .366 BABIP last year indicates a pitcher who is likely to show significant improvement just by being less unlucky. Millwood's FIP of 4.02 was way behind his actual ERA of 5.07, and his ERA should be much closer to the former this year. Second, he lost 15 pounds in the offseason, which always bodes well for stamina. Third, he's got a machine of offensive destruction providing him run support. A mediocre GB/FB rate has always been a problem for him but this start is a definite indication that he could be a fantasy-relevant pitcher again this year--just not an ace.

5. Kyle Lohse v PIT - W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Level of Skepticism: 5
Lohse is more and more establishing himself as a reliable sniper start option who is not going to get himself into tons of trouble. An exceptional 65% pitches for strikes while maintaining a sub-1.00 WHIP is not even the most impressive part of his start--that would be the fantastic 14:3 GB/FB rate. Lohse's Sunday start against Houston (another team he's had a lot of success against) might be the last one he sees on the waiver wire of many leagues.

Hope the first week of the season is treating you well. Remember to direct all questions, comments, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Hasta!

~Evan the Censor

Rating the Concern Level - 4/7/09

The Starting Line
Rating the Concern Level
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens

Monday was not exactly the SP ace renaissance that you'd hope for on Opening Day--chances are that no matter who you drafted (unless it was Johan only) you are looking at an ugly first-day line. So now that your team ERA is 6 and your team WHIP is 1.5, let's take a deep breath and look at the five biggest ace meltdowns from Opening Day, and rate the Censor's level of concern from 1 to 10.

CC Sabathia @ BAL - L, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 0 K
Level of Concern: 8
Why am I concerned? Because everyone else in New York sure is. Because a start this bad is amplified 100 times over in the bright lights of the New York media, which was always my biggest concern about Sabathia this year--the Big Apple vultures have eaten up better left-handers than him and forced them into exile, and already the leash has gotten significantly shorter. Sabathia is going to have to prove how well he can pitch in a pressure cooker, because after this train-wreck where he threw an absolutely pathetic 52% of pitches for strikes, every pitch of his next start will be under the microscope. It was the worst statistical start in the entire major leagues on Monday, and even though he was bad last year this is the type of stat line that defines a pitcher who can't find their stuff.

Brandon Webb v COL - ND, 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 6
Definitely some concern here for the same reason as Sabathia--when a pitcher like Webb can't find the strike zone it is problematic, and Webb could only throw 55% of his pitches for strikes. The GB/FB rate is still there (7:4) but Webb needs pitchers to be swinging to be effective, and that can't happen if he's nibbling all over the place. I'm giving Webb a bit more of a pass because he's been so consistent but with the troubling shoulder reports, this is a situation to keep an eye on.

Cliff Lee @ TEX - L, 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Level of Concern: 5
This is more of a concern because it carries on what was an awful spring training, but let's be realistic here--Lee is facing the best offense in baseball in their crazy hitters park, and still showed the control (5.0 K/BB, 67% pitches for strikes) and the efficiency (3.0 pitchers per batter faced, which is very strong) that made him so successful last year--he was just flat out hittable, and got unbelivably unlucky with a .497 game BABIP. I will start worrying about Lee when he starts walking guys (or if he does this against the Athletics or Blue Jays).

Roy Halladay v DET - W, 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Level of Concern: 4
Halladay did what he does best--stay in the game and eat innings even when things aren't going well, thus leaving a much more palatable ERA and WHIP than you might have had otherwise. Detroit's offense is very good and Halladay threw almost 70% of his pitches for strikes, which is exceptional. The only concern at all is the strikeouts--his elevated value this draft season comes from the hope and prayer that he can continue the 200 K pace from last year, and this 2.67 K/9 rate is going to cause a bit of hand-wringing.

Justin Verlander @ TOR - L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Level of Concern: 7
I was already concerned about Verlander, and this start confirmed it. I don't have a good feeling at all about how being the ace of a very poor pitching staff is going to sit with a pitcher who has shown major emotional shift tendencies. Verlander's control wasn't as bad as it's been at his lowest points, but a 2:7 GB/FB rate against an average Blue Jays lineup for a guy badly in need of a rebound season does not bode well at all.

I promise next time I join you, we'll focus on some good news! See you then.

~Evan the Censor