The Starting Line: Clayton Richard - 5/29/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Richard @ KC, 5/29/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K

I have to be honest with you--in the hunt for young, up-and-coming arms at the beginning of the year, I did not have Clayton Richard on my radar. In fact, I basically implied that the 25-year-old was holding a roster spot for the vastly superior young arm Aaron Poreda. Richard spent a relatively nondescript month as a reliever until Jose Contreras pitched his way into oblivion, and now Richard has his chance to shine as the fifth starter--and so far, he has sure taken that chance, and established himself as someone who needs to be on your radar.

After a transition start at Cleveland that can safely be ignored, Richard now has three good starts under his belt, with great numbers: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and an above-average 2.57 K/BB. He looks composed and ready, and you can likely chalk that up to the three full seasons of minor league ball that he pitched--not many young arms have the luxury of chalking up 450 total IP before beginning their first full major league season. The patience the White Sox have had has paid off, apparently.

If Richard is just now coming onto your radar, join the club; he was completely wasted in a relief role. He doesn't exactly have the dynamite fastball or putaway slider that a spot reliever really needs, and in a relief role he didn't have much of a chance to use his offspeed pitches effect--now we have a chance to see how good his changeup really is.

Richard is definitely a major league starter. Unfortunately, his effectiveness is stopping the world from seeing what Poreda is capable of, but Bartolo Colon is one cheeseburger away from the DL at any given moment. For now, Richard is someone who should at least be on your radar, and is probably already a good option for a sniper start. Expect the K/9 rate to settle somewhere around his career average of 6.06, but his walk rate should stay low and he will be able to limit the home run effectively. Despite the White Sox's near-attempt to waste him in relief, Clayton Richard has arrived and given time, will almost certainly be a boost to someone's fantasy team later in 2009.

Remember--if there's a pitcher you'd like covered in the Starting Line, feel free to leave a blog comment or send me an email.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clayton Kershaw - 5/28/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Kershaw @ COL, 5/27/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K

I have made the argument many times that of all the hot young pitchers in the majors right now, I'm not sure there's anyone with the upside of Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, only two months removed from legal drinking age. That's not easy to see, though, if you focus on aggregate season numbers. Kershaw's boasting a pretty pedestrian 4.34 ERA, a 3-3 record in 10 starts, and a mediocre 1.29 WHIP. His K/9 is a strong 8.84, but it comes with an ugly 5.14 BB/9. His efficiency is terrible--the Kazmir-esque 4.3 pitches per batter faced is the main reason he hasn't seen the eighth inning of a game yet. Doesn't sound like a pitcher you'd want much to do with this year, right?

Kershaw is the poster child for why I believe in short-term moving averages for my analysis. The kid posted an incredible start against the Giants, striking out 13 in seven innings with only one walk--then followed that up with two road bombs at Colorado and Houston, posting a massive 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. And everyone who was so excited about his potential was ready to run for the hills.

Kershaw completed his May on Wednesday with a return to the scene of the last crime and looked comparatively better--not great, but a backdoor quality start. It capped off a run of six May starts, though, that paint quite a different picture than the aggregate season numbers. In May, Kershaw posted a 2.57 ERA, with a particularly solid 1.06 home ERA. This is the sign of a pitcher that is settling down and finding some consistency.

I love the mix of pitches that Kershaw throws--his wicked heat is complemented by a deadly curveball, and a changeup that takes a full 11 mph off his fastball (which I'd like to see him throw more). Despite his control issues--as always, a common problem with rookie pitchers--Kershaw keeps the ball in the ballpark and has not truly blown up for more than a month. His hit rate (BABIP) is a bit low and due for some upward regression, but the WHIP damage there will be offset if he can just gain some control, and very few young pitches don't post significant control improvement after they cross 150-200 IP in the majors.

Despite how unsexy Kershaw may be to many after his back-to-back blowups and lack of a real dominant performance since then, the consistency is all you need to see from a pitcher with his talent at this point in his career. Keeper league owners should know that this is the Johan Santana of the next generation, the SP you'll want to have on your roster for the entire 2010's. Even non-keeper owners should look out for owners who have lost their interest in Kershaw and see if you can snatch him up in a trade--the second half of the season could pay major dividends.

I know everyone's in love with Cueto, Scherzer, and various others--but when Clayton Kershaw is being taken in the first round of drafts in 2014, just remember who tipped you off first.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Johnny Cueto - 5/24/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Over the next four days, the Censor's going to take a look at some of the young guns who had everyone abuzz with their high-strikeout, high-ceiling potential at draft time and see how that potential has translated to success so far in 2009.

Johnny Cueto v CLE, 5/24/2009
ND, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K

Cueto's major league debut will be forever burned in the minds of fantasy gurus--for a rookie pitcher to strike out 10 and walk zero in their first start is something incredible. Then to follow that up with another 8 K, 0 BB performance solidified Cueto as a fantasy legend. Until, of course, reality set in and Cueto's 2008 season line settled at 9-14, 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, along with a scary 1.50 HR/9, fifth-worst in the majors. Not exactly ideal fantasy numbers, but the 8.17 K/9 left some hope and Cueto was taken as a late-round flier in all mixed leagues--and is paying off huge dividends so far in 2009.

Through nine starts, Cueto is now 4-2, with a scintillating 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That includes five starts of at least 7.0 IP, and two or fewer ER. He is certainly showing improvement, but a look at his peripherals indicates there is still some room for growth. Cueto's pitch counts are usually topping 100 earlier in the game than the Reds and their shaky bullpen would prefer, and his 3.94 pitches per batter faced (unchanged from 2008) is not an ideal level. Similarly, Cueto is still only throwing 63% of pitches for strikes, a level at the low range of acceptable. He is certainly pitching to contact more, as evidenced by a K/9 rate that has dropped to 6.97 and a BB/9 rate that has also dropped from 3.52 to a solid 2.37.

The biggest improvement is the home run rate--cut in half to 0.74 HR/9, yet you have to wonder if that's sustainable since Cueto's HR/FB is only 7%, which is well below the major league average. Similarly, it's tough to imagine his opponent BA of .216 being even close to sustainable when only 25% of batted balls have gone for hits. Regression is due.

A pitcher like Johnny Cueto, who throws fastball or slider for 95% of pitches, is going to be challenged to have long-term success as a starter. He's looked great so far this year, but has also had his share of luck, and to anyone who hurriedly snatched him up after last year's hot start you remember what regression feels like. If you've enjoyed Cueto's dynamite contribution to your 2009 stat line, no need to make a panic deal, but it's probably time to sell high and move on to something else because I think we've seen the best part of his season.

Please remember to email me if you would like any specific starter, or any other element of starting pitcher, covered in this blog. Happy Memorial Day!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ricky Nolasco - 5/13/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ricky Nolasco @ MIL, 5/13/09
L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

I was absolutely one of the biggest fans of Ricky Nolasco going into the season--tough not to be with the numbers he put up and the composure with which he established himself as the Marlins ace last season. Now, Nolasco has extended his disastrous 2009 season through eight starts, in which he has never posted a game ERA less than 4.50 and has not pitched more than 6.0 IP once. Like many Nolasco owners, I'm sure, I got a nice offer trying to buy very low on Nolasco. At least it's something for a SP with a 7+ ERA, right? I'm not selling, and here's why I don't think you should either.

Nolasco was great for two reasons last season: his strikeout ability (7.9 K/9) combined with his pinpoint control (an incredible 1.78 BB/9)--good for seventh in the majors with a 4.43 K/BB, the Censor's favorite stat, and the third-lowest WHIP in the majors. Are the skills all gone? Not a chance: Nolasco is still striking out 7.6 batters per 9, and though walks have increased to 2.59 BB/9, that is still a quality starter number and Nolasco still throws two-thirds of pitches for strikes. No real change in ground ball rate or other unnerving peripherals.

The difference? Nolasco is on the other end of the Joe Saunders luck spectrum. Nolasco's BABIP is a ridiculous .387--which means that fully a fourth of the hits that batters are getting off him are due for regression. Even though I don't put much stock into strand rate, Nolasco's strand rate of 52.7% is positively eye-popping--the worst in the majors, and by a lot; second-worst is Daniel Cabrera at 56.6%. Hits are falling badly for Nolasco, and they're falling with men on base. His FIP, which as I've said is a useful ERA predictor, is 4.34--lower than any of his eight individual game ERAs. It sounds crazy after his start Wednesday, but seriously, this is one of the unluckiest stretches

All of this indicates that the best is yet to come for Nolasco--not only that, but it indicates he could still be the pitcher he was last year for a significant length of time. If that's the case, then you want him on your team, and you're highly advised to do what my fellow owner did and make a lowball trade offer while the bad taste is still present. I want Nolasco on my team now as much as I did in March.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Joe Saunders - 5/9/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Joe Saunders v KC, 5/9/2009
W, CGSHO, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Saturday's duel between Joe Saunders and phenom Zack Greinke was everything you could have hoped for, including yet another effortless CG by Greinke--albeit in a losing effort, as Saunders was equally dominant across the hill. Saunders threw 101 pitches in nine innings, an extraordinary 3.2 pitches per batter faced, and threw 67% of pitches for strikes while getting 13 GB vs 8 FB. It was a fantastic fantasy start for a pitcher who was everyone's golden boy going into the year, and who has done a fine job anchoring a staff devastated by injuries and Nick Adenhart's passing.

So let me take this opportunity to say that despite a great season and two particularly great starts in the last week--I still do not trust Joe Saunders. And if you've got an owner who is ready to pay for his 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP like he's an ace, start talking trade now before the bottom falls out.

Saunders didn't have much room left on the downside of his 4.68 K/9 rate, one of the ten worst in the majors among ERA qualifying starters last year, but he's found a way to strike out fewer, all the way down to a depressing 4.18 K rate. Saunders is definitely connecting with plenty of bats, and he's hardly the greatest groundball pitcher in the majors--his 1.21 GB/FB rate is good, but not good enough to make up for that abysmal K rate.

So how does he keep his ERA and WHIP? He's a lucky, lucky man. I told you he was a lucky man last year when he posted a BABIP of .267 and had only 8.7% of his FB go for home runs. If you didn't listen then you're probably wanting to laugh in my face now, but observe: luck does strike twice, as Saunders has somehow stumbled on a .249 BABIP and a groovy 6.6% HR/FB rate. Neither of those, of course, are stats he can control, which means there is major regression on the horizon.

There is a very useful stat that I often refer to called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which serves as a sort of ERA predictor based on non-luck and non-fielding factors. Saunders has a very pedestrian FIP of 4.25, almost exactly near the middle of all ERA qualifiers, and his FIP/ERA gap of -1.59 is ninth in the majors. That all translates to a pitcher that I do not want to have on my roster when the regression comes home to roost, and I'm sure you can find an owner who doesn't read my column and is more than happy to pay fifth or sixth round value for these stats. Remember the ultimate goal for trading SPs--you want their best start to be the last one on your roster. With Joe Saunders, this may be your chance.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Cliff Lee - 5/8/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Cliff Lee v DET, 5/8/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K

I didn't intend to keep such a theme of hard-luck pitchers going, but when it's May 9th and you see a pitcher's season stats of 3.45 ERA with a 1-5 record--and it's a pitcher like Cliff Lee, who everyone had an opinion about preseason, you can't help but write about him.

For the record, my opinion never wavered; I felt Lee was a top ten SP and felt there was a multitude of statistical evidence that his season was not going to be an abberation. Obviously a repeat was not to be expected, but certainly ace-level performance was a reasonable expectation. A ghastly spring training made everyone nervous, and then his first two starts rang up a 9.90 ERA and it was full-blown panic--enough that even I benched Lee for his third start, which just happened to be the new Yankee Stadium opener.

The corner was really turned beginning with that game--in his five starts since, he has thrown 37 IP and given up only 7 ER, striking out 23 with only 7 BB. That is Cliff Lee's signature: he's not a strikeout machine but he commands the strike zone and pitches efficiently; he's averaging a very strong 3.64 pitches per batter faced in 2009, even better than his 3.69 figure in 2008. And you also need to know that he is already one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, with a .352 BABIP that has plenty of room for regression.

But of course, the number I keep writing about this month is run support, and Lee is receiving it at a historically miserable level. In 7 GS and 47 IP of work, Lee has received a whopping 12 runs of total support. That's a pretty extraordinary figure when you consider the Indians scored 14 runs in an inning this year. Lee's 2.30 RS/9, fifth worst in baseball, simply cannot stay at this depressed level. His anger in the dugout boiled over after horrid defense led to an unnecessary run.

The bottom line is, Cliff Lee's stock is on the way up and if there's any chance you can still trade for him since he's not getting his owner any wins, now may be your last chance. But all the stats are there--just like they've always been--and Lee is still a pitcher I would love to own for the rest of 2009.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Johan Santana - 5/6/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Johan Santana v PHI, 5/6/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 10 K

I was going to write something about Zach Greinke on Monday...but really couldn't come up with any words. It was, and is, hard to put the numbers he is generating into words. After six starts, he is putting up numbers across the board that are phenomenal. He is the darling not just of fantasy, but of sports in general.

But Johan Santana is still the best pitcher in the major leagues. And he's doing it with his team gagging on a spoon behind him.

We've now seen six starts out of both Santana and Greinke. They now share the major league strikeout lead with 54--but Santana has done it in five fewer innings. Greinke's ERA of 0.40 is surely extraordinary, but Santana has now pushed his below 1.00 as well--equally absurd. Both are the only pitchers in the majors other than Dan Haren with a sub-0.90 WHIP. No one would ever complain about either leading their fantasy team--but observe, for a moment, the situations that Santana continues to thrive in.

Wednesday, his team is facing their hated archrivals the Phillies, at their new home Citi Field. It's a playoff atmosphere. Santana's offense, as usual (he now has the fifth-worst run support in the majors, exactly what you want to be doing for your ace), puts up nothing--and he brushed it off, as only he can do, throwing 72% of his pitches for strikes and carving up hitters. Striking out double digits while throwing only 3.7 pitches per batter faced is incredible. And it took until the seventh inning before Phillies errors finally got a run on the board, and the Mets were able to sweat out the 1-0 victory. It is disgusting how poorly the Mets support him, but that's not the point.

Before the season started, there were pundits who thought Santana wasn't even the top-ranked SP anymore. They figured it had to be time for injuries to bite him. They were in love with Lincecum's strikeouts and CC's durability, and somehow glazed over the fact that Santana had just put up a career-high ERA. They laughed at me (sometimes live on the air) when I said Santana was still a first-rounder. How does this 12.25 K/9 rate look now? Wish you had used your first round pick on that instead of Jimmy Rollins? And Santana does this under constant, excruciating pressure for a franchise that provides no run support in a city that grinds and flattens its superstars. And he has yet to bat an eyelash.

I take nothing away from Greinke, he's clearly the best pitcher in the AL right now and the MVP of fantasy considering his draft position (and I don't know how I managed to avoid drafting him in any league). But his city is just happy to be at .500--and his division is terrible. He pitches with no pressure; he's basically freerolling at this point. The fate of the Big Apple and the dramatic circus of the Mets weighs on the shoulders of Johan Santana with every start, and all he does is look better and better every day. He is so obviously the greatest pitcher of his era, and he is in his prime and pitching like an absolute superstar when it matters most. That's why there is still none better than Johan Santana.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Dan Haren - 5/1/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Dan Haren @ MIL, 5/2/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 K

After talking yesterday about Jake Peavy's hard-luck struggles with getting his team to support him, we now turn to the incredible April 2009 of Dan Haren. The season began with a 7 IP, 1 ER performance at Colorado--and a L. Then another solid 6 IP, 2 ER at Los Angeles--another L. Then to San Francisco for another 6 IP, 1 ER--and a third L. Imagine pitching well enough to have a 1.89 ERA, and an 0-3 record to go with it. Such is the nature of pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have the 30th-ranked offense in MLB and have been an embarassment almost top-to-bottom at the plate all season.

The last two starts have been continuing Haren's dominance, and this time with a modicum of run support to with them. First 9 K in 7 IP against Colorado, then 10 K in a CG against the Cubs--and Saturday, for the third straight game, Haren set a new season-high in strikeouts, carving up the Brewers like lunchmeat, throwing 68% of pitches for strikes and still posting an amazing 3.6 pitchers per batter faced--really a feat considering his strikeout rate.

Haren now has a 1.54 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and an unfathomable 7.20 K/BB rate which would set all kinds of records if he maintained it. Even with everything Johan Santana is doing Haren is still probably the Cy Young choice at this early point in the season. But you need to remember--this is what Haren does; he is the ultimate early-season pitcher. In 2007, he went through a stretch where he raised his ERA in 13 straight games. That stretch is going to come in 2009, and while he will likely end up as one of the top 5-7 SPs in baseball, if you can actually flip him for a top 10 offensive player at some point, don't be afraid to pull the trigger. Those who have sold high on Haren the last two years have been grateful they did so in September.

Other notes from Saturday: It's now time for Jarrod Washburn to be owned in all standard leagues, so go check your wire and say hooray for contract years. Joel Pineiro should probably be picked up also in any league with any real depth...meanwhile, Oliver Perez can be safely cut in 100% of leagues since he's headed back to the minors, and David Price owners can begin the Jeff Neimann watch again after he ran up his season ERA to 5.68...the Cubs-Marlins game showed Ted Lilly in spectacular form, running up 10 K and no walks in 8 IP; while across the way, Anibal Sanchez looked unhealthy with yet another first-inning blowup and complaints of the ball grip. The Marlins really need this kid to complete their rotation, especially until Nolasco gets his stuff together.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jake Peavy - 5/1/09

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jake Peavy @ LAD, 5/1/2009
ND, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K

There were a multitude of factors that led to Jake Peavy dropping from an early second rounder in 2008 to, in some cases, the sixth round and the 7th or 8th SP taken overall this year. There's no concern about his raw skills--his overall ERA and his K/9 leave no room for concern. But Peavy was the ultimate example of a great pitcher on a terrible team, and it's hard to look at his 2.85 ERA without seeing his 10-11 2008 record. Wins are an important statistic, and beside that Peavy's home-road ERA splits were growing more and more extreme in 2008.

Prior to Friday's start at the Dodgers, Peavy did not look sharp through his first five starts, giving up at least 3 ER in each start and running up high pitch counts and abnormally high BB/9 stats for him. He promised there was no health problems and that he would be on top of his game for the Friday start at Los Angeles--and boy, was he ever. Locked into a duel with lefty phenom Clayton Kershaw Peavy looked every bit the Cy Young contender, pitching 8 innings of fanastic, efficient baseball and throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes.

And what did he have to show for it? An offense that floundered all night against Kershaw, leaving five runners in scoring position with two outs and putting a gigantic doughnut hole on the board--and then a quick relief meltdown by Duaner Sanchez and a 1-0 Padres loss. If you waited all month for Peavy to break out, you saw what he can do in a big way on Friday night, but this is the reality of his season--probably another 200 K, and an ERA that should find its way back to the 3.20 area, but likely no more than 11 or 12 wins--surely not what you hope for from the first SP you drafted. If only his team could support him more--or a trade to a contender in a good pitcher's park would pop up--his starts wouldn't be this bittersweet. And if you did pass on him in the 4th or 5th round, the net result of the season's first four weeks should offer some validation.

Other notes from Friday: Don't let Mike Pelfrey's 3-0 record fool you--he still is laboring and should probably be benched (not cut) for a couple starts...Make sure that Zach Duke is not on the wire in your league; a 2.21 ERA through six starts can't be ignored any longer...Nothing made me happier than seeing Randy Johnson rain dominance all over the Rockies--forget 300 wins, the way he's pitching he may want to take a run at Cy Young's 511...why did the Rangers call up Derek Holland to shove him into middle relief? Despite taking the L, Holland will be a worthwhile starter once he is locked into the starting rotation, keep an eye out.

Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor